There is some good discussion about possible reunification scenarios between North and South Korea, currently being debated on a couple of high profile blogs that are worth checking out. It began with Lirelou’s post on Coming Anarchy and that post was picked up on by Robert over at the Marmot’s Hole. I gave my opinion on the topic over at Coming Anarchy that drew some discussion, but I will go ahead and expand on my possible reunification scenario here.

Many people like Lirelou think reunification of the Korean peninsula is likely and will happen fairly soon. I tend to think that the possibility that Korea does not reunify is just as likely as reunification and yet no one plans for a non-reunification scenario despite the possibility. Let me outline my reasoning. First of all Kim Jong Il will not seek reunification despite the Sunshine Policy advocates claims because it is not in his interest to do so. Once the country is reunified the horrors of the NK regime would become public and KJI and the NK elites would lose their heads over it not to mention the loss of wealth and prestige from being the ruling class. So reunification with KJI is not going to happen.

Now when KJI dies from old age which could be 20 years from now and he has a hand over of power to a designated successor this is the time that maybe somebody in the military may make a move though I think unlikely to over throw the regime. I think a just as likely scenario is that NK becomes destabilized due to the financial pressure of the US and internal discontent over the next 10 years and KJI sees an internal collapse coming and instead of going down in flames turns to China to stabilize the country. Chinese peacekeepers come in and set up shop in NK. KJI cannot turn the country over to South Korea because he would lose his head to where if he turned the country over to China he would live to see another day. China would be eager to prevent a humanitarian crisis from spreading across their border and also China would seize the opportunity to dilute the potential regional power, though a long term possibility, of a unified Korea on the Chinese border. Keeping the Koreas separated prevents a possible long term regional rival from developing which a unified Korea once was in ancient Korean Kugoryo times.

China has already made moves to claim the ancient Korean Kugoryo kingdom’s history as their own through different UN programs and their own history textbooks. The Kugoryo kingdom covered parts of Manchuria and all of NK. If the Chinese moved into NK they could justify their claim to the land due to the claimed history. It worked before, does Tibet ring a bell?

The South Koreans could do nothing to stop the Chinese because they do not have the military or global diplomatic might to kick them out. The way things are going now, Korea would have no allies to help them in this scenario. The US-ROK alliance could very well be over and definitely highly transformed by this time with a reduced troop presence if any in South Korea. The US would probably not be willing to go to war with China over Korea, especially if there is a bitter divorce between the US and SK which the way things look now is a possibility. The US attitude may very well be towards SK, that you wanted us out and be a regional balancer, well now you got it, deal with it. Another possible ally Japan will be even further estranged from Korea as well. No help from the US and Japan would mean China would have no problems moving into NK and setting up shop. If NK falls to China that would mean that SK would fall firmly into China’s sphere of regional hegemony. That is why I see the current anti-Americanism in Korea runs contrary to Korea’s long term goal of reunification. If the US-ROK alliance remains strong the Chinese would not entertain the idea of provoking a war with the US over NK thus ensuring reunification with SK some time in the future.

I find it interesting that IMHO the absorption of NK into China is just as likely as the absorption of Taiwan into greater China. Yet no one has done any contingency planning if the NK-China absorption scenario happens. I’m not saying it is a sure thing to happen, but it is at least worth considering the possibility; or is it that no one really cares?

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