You have to live within artillery range and listen to continuous threats of being turned into a “Sea of Fire” for years to understand this attitude:

A large domestic travel agency saw the number of customers booking overseas trips rise by almost 500 from the previous day to 8,572 even as missiles capable of hitting anywhere in the South dropped into the East Sea. ¿Bookings are rising steadily after going down due to the World Cup,¿ a staffer said. ¿It seems the trend was unaffected by the missile issue.¿ The same was true for holiday destinations here. Sokcho Beach on the East Coast, which opened Friday, saw some 3,000 visitors on the day, up from last year¿s 2,700 on opening day.

(…)

Word on the street confirmed the trend. ¿War doesn¿t break out that easily,¿ said Kim (20), a college student, who was at the COEX mall in Samseong-dong, Seoul on Friday afternoon. ¿There are people who say we¿re being insensitive about the missile launches, but I think they view the situation from a perspective that is too tilted toward the U.S.¿¿ Cho (19), another college student, was only mildly more concerned. ¿Of course we can¿t be sure that we¿re absolutely safe from North Korea¿s missile threat, but I don¿t think the situation requires the attention and concern of the entire public.¿ Asked how many missiles the North test-launched, a college junior near Gangnam Station in Seoul answered, ¿Three.¿

The country¿s usually vociferous online community was also unable to work up an interest. The web boards of universities made no mention of the missile launch, and on big portals like Naver, most agreed that any war is unlikely. ¿It¿s strange,¿ wrote a Naver user. ¿In Canada, where I live now, everybody is talking about the missile launches whenever I turn on the TV or radio, but Korea is really quiet.¿

The South Korean government seems intent on keeping their cool as well, some would say to cool:

Cheong Wa Dae says the lack of response is rooted in a strategic decision. ¿President Roh¿s response to the issue is a result of a hard decision not to exaggerate the security tensions the North¿s missile launches have created in the eyes of the public,¿ said Suh Choo-suk, the senior presidential secretary for security policy on Thursday. ¿North Korea¿s intention is to inflate the issue, and a cool-headed and reasonable response can be a proper and effective way to thwart that intention.¿ Another official close to the matter said the missile test ¿gave the U.S. a justification to further isolate North Korea, and Japan to pursue military expansion. It¿s only natural that we take a different position.¿

In other words, the government fears that growing tensions will hurt South Korea. But Cheong Wa Dae is not saying so publicly or asking the public to approach the matter calmly, which has fueled speculation that the government has something to hide. Critics also point out that the president¿s silence fits in only too well with the government¿s policy of not provoking the North at whatever cost. Cheong Wa Dae on Friday said Roh had no plan to comment on the issue.

Somebody pinch me, I actually agree with President Roh on this. A cool headed approach is the best way to approach this issue that was clearly done to get global attention and challenge the Bush administration. That doesn’t mean that the US and Korea shouldn’t do anything. Korea has already suspended aid to North Korea which we will see how long that lasts, but at least it is something. So what are the US’s options? Listening to the so called North Korea “experts” on US television, many of them are recommending for the US to bomb North Korea. I maintain that a bombing campaign of North Korea would be playing right into Kim Jong-il’s hands. He would be able to rally his people around the US imperialist threat that has attacked them. He will get international sympathy because the big, bad Americans bombed him. Saddam Hussein continues to get sympathy from the left, don’t think Kim Jong-il bad hair cut and all, won’t get sympathy either. Plus Kim can then make a strong case to justify why he will speed up his nuclear weapons program to protect his country not to mention possibly conducting DMZ shootouts or naval engagements with the South Koreans to strike back after the attack, which the South Koreans would blame on the US. South Koreans fear US over reaction more than the threat of North Korean aggression and a US strike on North Korea would completely alienate South Korea from the US once again playing into Kim Jong-il’s hands.

So what other options are there? First of all, the push for sanctions, international condemnation, and possibly restarting the six party talks down the road is a good start, but ultimately these measures will probably prove fruitless at changing North Korean behavior. However, it sets up conditions for Japan proposing to go nuclear. They can make the argument that they did everything possible to change North Korean behavior and nothing worked so they feel they have no choice but to arm themselves with nuclear weapons and then actually take hard measures to do so. Now this an action that will not get North Korea to change their behavior, but it will get China to do something.

Countries think in terms of national interest. Both China and Russia don’t mind having North Korea continuing to be a thorn in the US’s side because it sucks up American resources, time, and money to deal with them. Not to mention the Chinese do not want a unified democratic Korean peninsula and the loss of a buffer state on their northern border. So it is in their interest to keep North Korea afloat. However, a nuclear Japan is not in their interest and when you do the cost analysis, the cost of letting North Korea continue to be billigerent is not worth the cost of a nuclear Japan.

The Chinese are banking on the fact that Japan will not go nuclear and thus are continuing to prop up the Kim regime and threaten to veto any real UN actions against the North Koreans. Hard actions are needed to change North Korean behavior, but hard actions doesn’t always mean a military strike. So far the US is playing the hand they are dealt well and South Korea is doing their best to play the hand they have been dealt. However, the country holding the best cards is China, but it going to take some serious action from the other players to get the Chinese to play them.

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