The Korea Times has an article about how North Korea will not collapse if current strongman Kim Jong-il dies because the NK military will step in and take over.  This is nothing new, however what was interesting in the article was the claim that China wants Kim Jong-il’s son, Kim Jong-nam as the Dear Leader’s successor:

Earlier this year, Rep. Chung Hyung-keun of the main opposition Grand National Party (GNP) said Kim’s first son, Jong-nam, has been backed by the Chinese government to be the communist North’s next leader.

However, the lawmaker, who served in key posts at the nation’s intelligence agency in the 1980s and early 1990s, said his maverick lifestyle has caused him to lose his father’s favor. Kim Jong-nam was arrested on arrival in Japan in 2001 for using a forged Dominican Republic passport.

Kim Jong-il has never been keen on letting Kim Jong-nam take over, but the Chinese may force his hand to declare Kim Jong-nam as his successor as a condition to keep the aid flowing in from China as well as the Chinese government continuing to keep the United States at arms length over the North’s nuclear program.  This is actually a pretty good policy from the Chinese perspective because Kim Jong-nam would more than likely open up the country compared to Kim Jong-il. 

Kim Jong-nam does not have any human rights violation, crimes against humanity, or any other excess baggage hanging over his head if he decides to open up the country and the reality of the North Korean gulags becomes public.  He can blame it all on the old regime and vow that he is working on fixing the problems the old regime created.  Plus the North Korean people wouldn’t have the bitter hatred for Kim Jong-nam like they would have for Kim Jong-il if the country opened up to the outside world and the reality of their situation as one of the poorest and most despotic countries in the world became common knowledge.  The likelihood of Kim Jong-nam getting "Ceausescu"ed by his own people is unlikely compared to if Kim Jong-il tried to do the same thing.  The Chinese figure this is their best way to ensure a soft landing for North Korea that would not create a massive refugee crisis on their northern border. 

The wild card in all of this is if the North Korean military will allow it to happen.  There are plenty of leaders in the North Korean military that would be concerned about their own welfare if the country opened up plus the military would have to give up all their nuclear weapons before any international aid ever came into North Korea. 

The biggest problem I see with this Chinese policy is that it does nothing for the people who are dyeing now due to the Kim Jong-il regime, plus it does not solve the current security concerns created by their nuclear program.  Let’s say Kim Jong-il lives for another 5 years, how many hundred of thousands of North Koreans would die during that time from starvation and the gulags?  The Chinese could probably care less about the welfare of the North Korean people, but I’m sure they are concerned about facing the very real possibility of a nuclearized Japan responding to the North Korean threat.  If they do back Kim Jong-nam that is a sign to me that the Chinese are figuring that the US will not allow the Japanese to go nuclear. 

Keep in mind all of this could be meaningless if Kim Jong-il lives on for the next decade.