Excellent editorial in the Wall Street Journal from Michael Ledeen asks the important question of whether or not to declare victory over Al Qaeda in Iraq and move on:

Should we declare victory over al Qaeda in the battle of Iraq?

The very question would have seemed proof of dementia only a few months ago, yet now some highly respected military officers, including the commander of Special Forces in Iraq, Gen. Stanley McCrystal, reportedly feel it is justified by the facts on the ground.

These people are not suggesting that the battle is over. They all insist that there is a lot of fighting ahead, and even those who believe that al Qaeda is crashing and burning in a death spiral on the Iraqi battlefields say that the surviving terrorists will still be able to kill coalition forces and Iraqis. But there is relative tranquility across vast areas of Iraq, even in places that had been all but given up for lost barely more than a year ago. It may well be that those who confidently declared the war definitively lost will have to reconsider. [Michael Ledeen]

It is a well written article that even gives a shout out to fellow milblogger Herschel Smith who I often link to here:

Herschel Smith, of the blog Captain’s Journal, puts it neatly in describing the events in Anbar: “There is no point in fighting forces (U.S. Marines) who will not be beaten and who will not go away.” We were the stronger horse, and the Iraqis recognized it.

Is it time to declare victory and move on?  I don’t think the time is quite right yet because the conditions for victory in my opinion have not quite been reached.  Al Qaeda is just about finished in Iraq which I think will mean that the US military will then transition to focusing on the Shiite militias.  The Iranian backed Shiite militias have to be dismantled before real reconciliation between Sunnis and Shiites can occur.  If you were a Sunni in Iraq would you want to disarm and throw your lot in with the Baghdad government knowing that the Mahdi Army could come rolling into your community at anytime and wipe you out?  That is why the Mahdi Army and its off shoots has to be dismantled before the Sunnis fully reconcile with Baghdad. 

A sign that the US military is moving into a new phase centered around dismantling Shiite extremist groups appears to be beginning with the announcement of a raid that killed 49 extremists in Sadr City:

Multinational Forces Iraq conducted a major raid in Baghdad’s Sadr City. Forty-nine Special Groups operatives were killed in a nighttime raid targeting a cell leader of the Iranian-backed Shia terror group.

Coalition forces, often the cover name given to the special operations forces hunter-killer teams of Task Force 88, met heavy resistance in Sadr City as they cleared buildings in search of the Special Groups leader. The clearing teams "received sustained heavy fire from adjacent structures, to include automatic weapons and rocket propelled grenades, or RPGs," and killed 33 terrorists. Six more terrorists were killed as air support was called in on a team attempting to maneuver and hit the Task Force with RPGs, and another ten were killed as the raiding party was leaving the site.  [Bill Roggio]

The conditions for "victory" on the ground in Iraq are not yet ready but appear to be heading in that direction.  The most important aspect for declaring victory in Iraq is the political aspect of it and I’m not talking Iraqi politics either; I’m talking American politics.  As much as it pains me to say this considering the outright obstruction of the war effort by the Democratic Party in Washington, some how conditions have to be set to where the Democratic Party can take partial credit for "victory" in Iraq. 

I say this because even when "victory" is declared Iraq is still going to be a very dangerous place, with many issues, and in need of US support.  As it is right now, statistically Iraq has a per capita homicide rate of about 67 deaths per 100,000 people.  Let’s inflate the number a bit and say that number of homicides in Iraq is under reported bump the number all the way up to 80 deaths per 100,000.   This would still put Iraq on par with the homicide rate in Columbia:

HT: EagleSpeak

If the US military is able to turn Iraq into a Middle East version of Columbia this would be a great success because even though Columbia is one of the greatest receivers of US aid and is home to a little known US military presence; the support given to Columbia is a bi-partisan effort equally supported by Democrats and Republicans alike because they both recognize the danger of drug trafficking and communist guerrilla movements in Columbia.  Though progress in battling drug traffickers and militants in Columbia has been slow, progress is undeniable and the country is a thriving democracy, with a growing economy and an improving security situation led by a popular leader President Alavaro Uribe. 

If the US can help Iraq reach such a level as Columbia, this should be considered "victory", but it would not be sustainable unless the Democrats are brought on board to continue to sustain the victory because all the gains made in Columbia would be lost without the support of the Democratic Party agreeing to the massive foreign aid to Columbia every year likewise with Iraq any victory there needs Democratic support to ensure the continued US aid going to that country.  Without Democratic support any declarations of victory would be met with harsh political cynicism that the opponents of America would be quick to exploit in Iraq by setting off a few car bombs here and there for Democratic politicians to demagogue that victory has not happened in Iraq especially during an election year. 

Now if the Democrats are brought on board and victory is declared and the enemies of America than set off a few car bombs and the Democratic politicians and most importantly their media allies condemn them and throw their support behind the US military and US government’s commitment to the Iraqi government and people this would be devastating to the enemies of America in Iraq.  I want US presidential candidates debating health care, social security, and other domestic concerns next year not arguing over if a car bomb that went off in Baghdad is a sign of defeat and the need for the US military to withdraw. 

That is why any claims of "victory" in Iraq would be hollow if it is not sustainable and the only way it will be sustainable is if the Democratic Party can share in the success. 

More on whether or not to declare victory over at Blackfive.