When I started to think about how Pyongyang might react to the news coming out of Lee’s transition team, I started to think there is at least a real chance that Lee’s words themselves could have a fundamental impact on NK relations with SK and the US.

Before the election, looking at it from South Korea’s side, I figured a Lee victory wouldn’t mean much in relation to NK, because Lee’s ultimate NK policy would be to keep it alive.

But, thinking about how NK views things yesterday, it dawned on me I didn’t consider how Pyongyang might set a chain of events in motion that forces Lee’s hand —- if they react too strongly to what Lee’s team has been saying they plan to do.

Basically - NK believes it can’t appear weak - either internally or externally.

And it will view just what we have heard out of Lee’s camp so far as a serious challenge.

Pyongyang will have to be careful how it responds, because it can’t afford to lose much aid from the South or China or convince the US to turn the tougher sanctions back on.

But, I can’t see NK sitting quiet much longer as it did right after Lee’s election. They will feel compelled to make some kind of strong move beyond mere harsh rhetoric.

I think I’ll get a fair idea of how badly Pyongyang is still hurting by how they react to Lee over the next 2 or 3 months…

…and this whole year will be very key to watch as Lee settles in and Pyongyang tries to figure out how to act.