Presient-elect Lee Myung-bak continues to say all the right things:
President-elect Lee Myung-bak said Monday that he is willing to hold summit talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il anytime, if such a meeting is helpful for the denuclearization of the communist state.
“Leaders of the two Koreas can meet anytime if it would be helpful to the denuclearization of North Korea. But the next summit has to take place in Seoul,” said Lee in his New Year’s news conference. [Yonhap]
The point about Kim Jong-il visiting Seoul is important because first of all after the first inter-Korean summit in 2000 with Kim Dae-jung, Kim Jong-il promised that the next summit would be in Seoul. He of course backed out of that promise like he does to most promises and lame duck South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun gave in to Kim’s demands and went to Pyongyang. The South Korean president traveling to Pyongyang is important for Kim Jong-il’s propaganda machine because it makes him look powerful because it appears the South Korean president is paying tribute to him by going to Pyongyang instead of the other way around.
Secondly by Kim Jong-il visiting Seoul it shows to North Koreans that South Korea is not subordinate to Kim Jong-il and powerful enough to cause him to travel to visit them. Remember Kim Jong-il has only left North Korea to visit the more powerful Chinese and Russians. By traveling to Seoul he would be acknowledging that South Korea is as powerful to meet as though two countries. It would be devestating to his domestic propaganda and probably the reason why he would never visit Seoul.
Lee Myung-bak since being elected has said he will make sure North Korea lives up to its promises and inter-Korean cooperation was no longer going to be a one way street. Demanding that Kim Jong-il come to Seoul for any future inter-Korean summit is a good place to start. Lee Myung-bak continues to talk a very good game, but I’m waiting to see what he actually does once in power. I really hope he lives up to his early promise.
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4:12 am on January 15th, 2008 1
I wrote about this on my blog….
When I started to think about how Pyongyang might react to the news coming out of Lee’s transition team, I started to think there is at least a real chance that Lee’s words themselves could have a fundamental impact on NK relations with SK and the US.
Before the election, looking at it from South Korea’s side, I figured a Lee victory wouldn’t mean much in relation to NK, because Lee’s ultimate NK policy would be to keep it alive.
But, thinking about how NK views things yesterday, it dawned on me I didn’t consider how Pyongyang might set a chain of events in motion that forces Lee’s hand —- if they react too strongly to what Lee’s team has been saying they plan to do.
Basically - NK believes it can’t appear weak - either internally or externally.
And it will view just what we have heard out of Lee’s camp so far as a serious challenge.
Pyongyang will have to be careful how it responds, because it can’t afford to lose much aid from the South or China or convince the US to turn the tougher sanctions back on.
But, I can’t see NK sitting quiet much longer as it did right after Lee’s election. They will feel compelled to make some kind of strong move beyond mere harsh rhetoric.
I think I’ll get a fair idea of how badly Pyongyang is still hurting by how they react to Lee over the next 2 or 3 months…
…and this whole year will be very key to watch as Lee settles in and Pyongyang tries to figure out how to act.
6:26 am on January 15th, 2008 2
I’ll say this much — ain’t no way KJI is going to Seoul anytime soon for another summit. Lee knows that, Christopher Hills knows that, and KJI knows that. This is a very shrewd, very smart first salvo from a hardliner. Now he can say, “You can’t say I didn’t try.” (Sound like any other head of state’s new position as well?)