The third one over looks like it has a tiny little R2 unit working on it.

…and the whole place is swarming with sandpeople.

I haven’t read that much along this line in the media, but the test they did must be bad for Pyongyang.

Testing a dud is most likely a good bit worse for it than the strategic ambiguity it had working for it for years and years —

— we had figured they had a couple to few working nukes since the early 1990s. We’ve been figuring in the 1990s and early 2000s that they processed enough fuel and made a few more nukes….

….That thinking was good for Pyongyang.

Now, we have to be seriously questioning whether they have a working nuke or not. That isn’t good for the regime at all……couple that with the failure of its last ICBM test….

I would guess that the regime also needs to convince its own people in the know that it has a working nuke — that it has that security blanket. The regime is hyper-paranoid. It keeps even the highest members under fear and watch. But, it can’t continually purge everybody…..so…..it has to keep those who have to accumlate some power in the system happy enough and afraid enough —– part of this is making them feel secure enough from outside threats but also fearing those threats ——

— what I mean is — it has to have the US look like the boogieman, but it also needs to convince those who recognize the nation’s weakness that Pyongyang is still strong enough to prevent the US from stepping in…

…..otherwise……some of those power players who are always kept in fear of purges or the US coming in —- will start to put feelers out to the Americans or Chinese or South Koreans or Japanese or whoever……..

The bottom line being that some of those who gain some power in North Korea will seek to get out while they can if they start to believe collapse or American intervention is inevitable.

With the nuke fear, they can feel much safer about the Americans coming in — and they can feel much more sure about the regime’s ability to blackmail material aid enough for the regime to live.

With the nuke fear gone….???….

So, if I were Kim Jong Il, I’d have to test another nuke, even if I did it in Pakistan. I’d have to give some backbone and staying power to those I need to keep the nation functioning at a minimum level.

But, having a sucessful nuke test that the world can view would be a lot more useful for the regime.

In fact —— knowing what little I know about all this —– I’d have to conclude that —- the longer we go without seeing another North Korean nuke test…..the more we have to doubt whether they have a functional warhead/bomb or not….

The more time that passes, the more we have to question their nuke capability, I’d think.

And the dread of artillery shells raining down on Seoul is still much less dreadful than a mushroom cloud rising over it…..

….and that fact, to Pyongyang, has to spell out that minus a much more sucessful nuke test, the US will have more confidence in its ability to strike at the North without truly catastrophic results.

I looked at those structures at every angle and they did not look like homes to me because they are very conical structures. Like yourself I’m not an imagery analyst either.

CPT Kim,

I am not intel, I am a combat arms soldier.

usinkorea,

I think something that may effect any future nuclear tests is the amount of nuclear material NK has left. If they only have enough material to make 6-8 bombs, would they want to waste any of it that is left on a nuclear test?

A GNP conservative now occupies the Blue House. The Bush administration is in limbo and on hold as far as goodie giving and deal making. China is hosting the Olympics which will invite more scrutiny of its relationship with NK and NKorean refugees….

….that last item might push against NK acting up, but I NK is a nation that often does things that seem counter-productive. They don’t mind pissing others off just to grab attention because they have a long term view and believe everything will swing back their way at some point —- especially that China will never cut them off fully.

Most of all - though - their last nuke test was a bust, and they need to prove they have a working design. They need to prove it to their own military and top civilian leadership…..to nations like Iran or Libya or Syria who might be willing to pay for North Korean expertise or material, and to the US and UN.