I would not be surprised at all if this year some sort of military provocation instigated by North Korea happens:
Just before stepping down from his post, former Defense Minister Kim Jang-soo warned military officers to be on alert for a possible confrontation with North Korea this year. According to military sources, Kim, who left office last week, warned key officers to be ready for trouble with the North, as Pyongyang’s anger rises over the latest South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises.
Perhaps responding to the change of administration in the South, North Korea has turned up the rhetorical heat on its denunciation of exercises between South Korea and the United States, saying it would respond with all necessary measures against what it described as military provocation.
Kim asked key military officials to be fully prepared for a possible confrontation, said the source. Kim, a military officer for more than three decades, spent most of his career as a strategist. He is the former chief of operations for the Joint Chiefs of Staff and deputy commander of the Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
North Korea has no intention of denuclearizing and thus will need to find a convenient excuse to pull out of the nuclear agreement where the US appears to be the ones to blame for the failure of the agreement. There are plenty of useful idiots in the United States and around the world that will be willing to suspend all logic and blame President George Bush for the failure of the talks plus you throw in the US election cycle and Kim Jong-il is sure to find even more allies who are willing to blame Bush for the failure of the nuclear agreement.
Even after the pull out from the agreement Kim Jong-il will also want to raise military tensions on the peninsula if new Korean President Lee Myung-bak does anything to actually monitor and control the amount of aid going to North Korea. Lee has promised before to make reconciliation with North Korea a two way street and that South Korea would no longer be a free ATM for Kim Jong-il whenever he needs money and aid. Raising military tensions would test if Lee is actually serious about his rhetoric.
Then you throw in reports such as this from Jane’s that North Korea is on the verge of collapse and it sets conditions for possibly a very interesting year for North Korea. I suspect though that Kim Jong-il will get whatever he needs to get by on because China does not want a refugee crisis before the Olympics, the US is desperate to at least keep the image of a working nuclear agreement alive, and South Korea despite their rhetoric does not want unification any time soon. This should all be enough to ensure that the Kim Jong-il regime continues to muddle along for some time and enjoys continuing accolades from American musicians and the other useful idiots out there.
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12:21 pm on March 4th, 2008 1
Janes report on the North Korean collapse seems to be predicated on news media reports and no real analysis. North Korea has had monthly shipments of oil from China all winter while fuel deliveries from countries promoting the denuclearization of its ding dong facility have caused the NKs to hold thier first ever military manuevers in years. Along with increased trade with China, these shipments have brought the doomsday scenerio and eminant collapse to an end. One only wonders how much these people get paid to predict when NK will collapse. NK is doing well considering its position.
1:05 pm on March 4th, 2008 2
The Jane’s report is not very good analysis which is why I mentioned that I expect the surrounding players will continue to make sure Kim Jong-il’s regime continues to get by. However, I would not consider his regime stable.
It is on chronic life support which means it could collapse in short order if certain life support measures are pulled. However, I don’t see anyone including the US willing to remove the life support measures anytime soon.
Thus this regime will continue, the gulags will stay stocked, millions shall remain malnourished, the executions will continue, and the sex slave trade in China will also continue to flourish.
1:14 pm on March 4th, 2008 3
Ok so now the NKs are war starting, food givith to army, nuclear rod toting, drug taking, starving, passing technology to Iran and Syria, pimping out to chinese, death camp landlords, moving watching dear son ing, South Korean Cabnet Killing, Jet blowing upsters, Missle testies, Nuclear bomb blowing, Japanese Citizen kidnapping, war exercise protesting, U2 sighters, …..and now moving in for the attack
I am more concerned with South Korean Driving habits and the way the charge for trash bags….and SO SHOULD YOU. SHAME ON YOU MR ANGER
8:43 am on March 5th, 2008 4
^ I don’t know if that was meant to be an intentional rant but I cannot stop laughing.
9:56 am on March 5th, 2008 5
I’ve said before recently around the blogs — Pyongyang will have to test another nuke device at some point for confidence reasons both internal and external.
The same is true for the ICBMs too but to a lesser extent.
Who knows? Maybe NK was going to test a nuke in Syria? to throw another wild hair into that jumbled mix….
…but a nuke test in Pakistan or Iran or Syria would do fine to prove to the necessary regime supporters inside NK that they have a working nuke card to play.
The last test must have created some doubts both inside and outside the North about its nuke capability and it needs that stand-off threat….
3:24 am on March 6th, 2008 6
That bit about blaming Bush is right on. We should have started blaming Truman when he sent troops to Korea in support of a UN resolution. Bush is just going along with the status quo. Sending troops to fight a war without the approval of Congress (declaring war) was/still is unconstitutional.