The FTA probably has more opposition in the US left to clear then it does in Korea now. If the FTA does not happen then yes US beef will be banned again in no time.

Your statement about assigned slots compared to actual manning of USFK is a good one. I don’t know the answer to it and even if I did I couldn’t disclose it here anyway.

The ROK may have had their defense sales status upgraded but I doubt they will begin buying the really expensive stuff they need to begin to provide for their own defense. Take the case of the PAC-3’s. These are very expensive and if Korea buys and fields them then that gives the US an excuse to withdraw our PATRIOT units from the peninsula. That is why I think Korea will probably buy a few PAC-2’s but not enough to warrent a withdrawal of US PAC-3s.

I think this type of reasoning is what will be implemented across the Korean military where they will buy some new stuff but not enough that would greatly impact the national budget or give an excuse for further USFK withdrawals.

As far as PSI I just do not see the ROKs ever stopping and inspecting NK ships even if a visa waiver program is dangled in front of them.

Afghanistan like I said before I am very ambivalent about the ROKs going back there and was happy when I saw only 10 policemen going to train Afghan police.

If it were up to me, I would take everything “American” out of Korea and never look back. I would pull the grass and trees out of Yongsan and leave a open pit. And if it were up to me, I would pull every bit of American Japanese and Chinese culture out of Korea too, and leave it in its “pure” Korean form. LOL

One can dream…

Let’s see. Visa Waiver Program (VWP) had MOU signed between ROK and Homeland Security secretary. BUT there’s a lot more that needs to be done before it’s implemented. More hype than substance.

The FTA same stuff as before. The US boneless beef negotiators came over with one rule — no opening of market, no FTA. ROK opened market with caveat that they could bring back the quarantine at their option. Meaning: If FTA passes Congress, boneless beef stays. If FTA dies, you will hear the slamming of gates on boneless beef.

Stop reductions? The ROK media is so intent on saying that Gen Bell recommended it — which is a bunch of horse puckey. However, I remember an unsubstantiated report in the Stars and Stripes a couple of months ago that stated that the USFK was at 27,000 — meaning the 28,500 was simply the billets. Anyone remember after the Vietnam War when the slots remained the same, but many units’ manning was cut by 75 percent. I do. There is a different reality between authorized strength and actual strength. I wonder if people are playing with numbers here. I am one of the number that is not happy with the decision on this…BUT I wonder if there are other things going on behind the scenes.

NATO +3 status good news for ROK — and US defense contractors. The Congress passed this bill in Feb, I think. Regardless, the ROK really needs help fast as their choppers reach the end of their life cycles — hmmm…Eurochopper designs for new utility choppers have gone where? Also time running out of time on decisions for the WRSA-K munitions. If the ROK doesn’t make some decisions fast, they are going to be SOL. Also expect to see the push on the missile defense systems (PAC2/3) that Gen Bell and Sharp are politely “demanding” from the ROK. Also haven’t heard much of the ROK ATACMS after they took over the artillery return fire mission. All kinds of purchases in the future if the ROK is serious of upgrading their military — which they will have no choice once the USFK moves into a support role.

Hmm…ROK possibly joining the PSI. Check it out, but the VWP has a caveat that it is a reward to our “allies” against terrorism. ROK had best consider it very carefully.

The solidarity on going back into Afghanistan fizzled with the ROK offering up 10 policemen who will hide in the Police Academy to train the Afghans. This is not the last you will hear on this as this is a political item for Bush.

In all, I think the Lee-Bush summit was simply a photo op for back-slapping photos and shots showing them laughing and joking with arms around each other. Just a good buddy photo op.

Likewise leaks to the media about a US beef deal have also been reported which of course had the usual suspects in an uproar. The larger picture is not the beef deal by the ROK-US FTA which now has cleared a major hurdle with the beef deal.

If the US really wanted to withdraw, they would have done so, beef or no beef. If by a limited chance there was a deal, Bush sure didn’t deal that hard. Lee was in the US for less than couple of days.

I’ve been watching the Korean press since this last election trying to see if they are going to return to the type of irresponsible nationalism they were so good at before Roh scared them straight for five years. So far, the signs have been mixed. I’ll have to wait and see…