GI Korea asked me if I’d like to do some posts here at his blog and I was honored. He runs a top flight K-blog, and it is a little daunting to prepare to write at a level to do the blog justice.
I admire GI Korea and One Free Korea for doing the difficult day jobs they have - yet also - finding time to write out long, detailed, sourced posts for their blogs.
I avoid that kind of writing for the most part on my blog. I spent too many years in college and grad school writing research papers. Blogging was a way to release some of that stress by just typing as I thought. I did long posts for the www.usinkorea.org website, but that only required a few days of intense work combing the media archives, collecting notes, then writing then going back to being lazy the rest of the year.
But, in posting here at GI Korea’s, I plan to beef up my typical posts.
With that introduction stated —- on to the current post — which concerns what might happen on the anti-US front in the near future now that Cows Gone Wild!! Hysteria has died down:
It is safe to believe Korean society feels strong after pushing President Lee around for a month - and that the society feels good about feeling strong.
That is not a good combination for the US in Korea…
In 2000, Korea put on months and months of anti-US activity over a 
variety of issues — The Great Water Dump was the most memorable one (GI Korea’s Review). But, the Koon-ni/Maehyang-ri Bombing Range Saga was also finally picked up by average Koreans. And there were other much smaller issues brought up during this period as well.
Both the water pollution and training range issues were as frivolous as the beef issue: The pollution case involved a small amount of formaldehyde dumped in the Yongsan base sewer system. It had no potential whatsoever to harm a single Korean - but this editorial illustrates how far Korean society was willing to freak out about it:
These toxic chemicals are widely known to cause cancer and birth defects. The Han river supplies drinking water for over 10 million citizens residing in metropolitan Seoul and its satellite cities. Are Koreans disposable people?
The news is ethically repulsive. Environmentally, the act is destruction-friendly. In psychiatric terms, it comes close to an act of quasi-murder [oh my!]. For, what matters here is the sick mind and attitude that made possible the dumping of the cancer-causing substance. Whether or not the quantity of the discarded was enough to cause cancer is not the issue here.
The myth that was created during the Maehyang-ri incident was that a USFK plane dropped a bomb that missed the range and landed “in the heart of the town.” But, in reality, the initial spark was simply that the plane dropped the bomb, on the range, unannounced:
No pilot training was scheduled that day, because the plane that dropped the bombs was heading for another range when it developed engine trouble and was diverted to Koon-ni to drop its load before returning to base.
The fact that villagers weren’t notified ahead of time was the original cause celeb for the protests — but when the media and average Koreans jumped on board — they quickly altered the truth to justify the level of anger put on display by claiming that the bombs had hit outside the range and hurt people and did “much” damage to houses in the area.
This shifting of “root cause” is typical in anti-US culture — and we saw it in the Cows Gone Wild!! Hysteria too: when it became obvious that Korea might look stupid in the world’s eye due to the irrational “fear” of US beef, they shifted to the idea it was about President Lee’s arrogance…
The main point here —- however —- is that Korean society does not need a solid reason for even large spikes in anti-US activity to occur.
So - Anything might set off the next spike after Cows Gone Wild!!
But the Korea Times editorial above also demonstrated another factor we need to include in guessing about future activity:
Frankly, some Koreans are also scared of the idea of a defense by those who commanded to dump the toxic substance; who murdered many Korean hostesses, the poor souls, who had to sell sex to earn their subsistence; and, who care little about those Koreans suffering from constant bombing exercises like the one in Maehyang-ri. Why are they reluctant to fully disclose the facts about Nogun-ri massacres? Is the SOFA really a fair arrangement?
“Are they here to defend us? Thanks but from whom?” The answer to the question is in a sense becoming more and more ambiguous and ambivalent in the post inter-Korean summit detente.
See. 2000 was the year of the Great NK-SK Summit.
For a few months back then, even many die-hard Korean conservatives really believed peace in our time might be at hand.
Korean society as a whole was drunk with the idea North Korea was really going to change.
That made Koreans feel really, really good - and proud -
- and that feeling was easily transferred into venting long-held anger at the US in Korea — especially with the summit making it seem USFK was no longer needed…
Pent up and long held are perfect ways to describe the phenomenon. Look back at the last quote from the Korea Times editor: he throws in all the big ticket anti-US/USFK issues - pollution, GI crimes, Maehyang-ri, the SOFA, and so on. Economic bullying is absent, but he hit most of the others.
And that is how it goes. We witnessed it again with Cows Gone Wild!! Of course other issues were quickly mixed together in the street demonstrations — that is simply how the process works.
All of these issues peculate in the society, with periodic reminders spaced throughout the year - every year - waiting for the right time to activate. And when one item scores a direct hit, the others are usually brought along.
And one thing that activates them is Korean pride.
In 2002, what made Korean society feel strong and prideful wasn’t another summit with North Korea —– it was their impressive showing in the World Cup - coupled with pride in hosting the games on Korean soil.
My Korean language skills are weak — but I believe in this video from 2002 - the Korean student demonstrates the link between World Cup fever, Korean pride, and anti-US activity.
In 1997-98, Korean pride was the primary factor in the IMF bailout short spike in anti-US activity: In that case, Korean pride was badly damaged as their Miracle on the Han economy, the greatest source of their national pride, tanked. In Nov. and Dec. of 1997, within about a week’s space in time, Korea’s president both stated Korea would not ask for an emergency bailout, talking as if such a thing would be too dishonorable to even consider, then asked one. Korean society felt great humiliation.
And - they decide to release some tension about that by — going nuts over how the IMF chief sat on a couch in a media photo op with the Korean president when the IMF team was in town discussing the bailout. You see — the IMF chief, who wasn’t American, sat back on the cushion and even dared to cross his legs - looking comfortable, while Korea’s president was forced to sit ramrod style on the edge of his chair kowtowing to the foreigner.
The US government, through the IMF, was providing billions of dollars in an emergency loan to stabilize the Korean economy that was in a rapid downfall, and this is how Korean society chose to respond — with hurt pride and anti-Americanism. (thus showing that the pride factor is at play whenever Korea’s sense of national pride is too low or too high)
So what does this mean for us today?
Korean society most likely feels strong and proud of itself with what they accomplished through their hysteria over US beef imports.
President Lee is supposed to be arrogant and a bulldozer.
His mandate after the last election was very strong. The GNP/conservatives were given a very strong hand in the National Assembly and they controlled the Blue House. The liberals were crushed…
…But Korean society, through massive protests, brought the conservatives to their knees immediately after handing them so much power. Pres. Lee even went several times on TV in front of the nation and kowtowed - begging for forgiveness.
That only validates the society’s sense of pride and strength…
So, I do not think we will have to wait two or three years for the next anti-US spike to occur.
In the 1990s, my rule of thumb said that an anti-US spike in activity occurred about every 8 to 16 months — or about once a year.
I don’t think we’ll have to wait 16 months.
I can’t give a good guess about what might spark it.
We’ve seen clearly - anything can.
I don’t know what stage the Pyongtaek base expansion is in. One of the big hurdles was crossed a year or two ago when the moved off the squatters. If that was something that needed to be done this year, I’d put my money on it, but it has already passed.
USFK base pollution is an issue always ready on hand.
This recent Korea Times article said pollution is becoming a bigger issue for Korean society. The cost of decontamination of US bases has been in the news. Maehyang-ri was in the news on the pollution angle this past January.
Pyongtaek could finally be the spark - much like with Maehyang-ri.
In both issues, The Priest had been trying to generate a society-wide outrage for years before such an outrage finally arrived. He just hasn’t been successful with Pyongtaek, yet.
Don’t be surprised to see him and his people repeating the violence of 2005.
That video is just one of several from 2005. You can see the others via this page.
The objective in most of those violent protests was to rip down the fence line at the USFK base. The Priest did the same thing at Maehyang-ri in 2000 to grab the society’s attention.
It didn’t work in 2005. In fact, the media didn’t report it at all. I just happened to catch it on a routine review of video postings at the leading anti-US/USFK website www.voiceofpeople.org that I do every 4 to 6 months or so.
Those multiple riots were large and very violent. They were staged by both the usual shock troops - university students + union members. But, because they had the potential to harm the US-SK relationship and possibly motivate Roh to “do something” — when they couldn’t trust what the hell Roh might do — the media decided to bury them.
With President Lee in the Blue House, The Priest might be much more successful if he makes this play again.
The cost of relocating USFK bases off the DMZ and out of Seoul could be the spark itself — especially because Korean society has long opposed the perceived “weakening” of the US commitment to defend Korea such a move implies. This link is to a Korea Times archive search for “bases” in which you can see the costs have been in the news.
A crime by a US soldier could be the spark - but I wouldn’t put my money on that…
GI Crimes and The SOFA are two bedrocks of anti-US culture in Korea, but oddly enough, they don’t directly inspire that much street protest activity. (GI Korea’s SOFA Review + GI Crimes and GI Crimes again)
Technically speaking, the 2002 armored vehicle accident and the 2000 water contamination cases were about crimes and the SOFA, but I have seen murders and rapes pass without significant street protests.
Those events do help solidify anti-US ideas in the society through the media and schooling. But, the 1995 subway brawl and the early 1990s Markle murder case are the only two I can think of that caused significant street activity.
Given the society’s mood, the militant labor unions might also strike gold sometime this year over things like the FTA that it wasn’t able to generate support for with President Roh in the Blue House.
Even North Korea could help start the next spike:
Things are looking bad in the North — as One Free Korea has been showing repeatedly the last few months.
South Korea under President Lee is also unlikely to give Pyongyang as much as it has been used to getting since 1998 when President Kim started the Sunshine Policy.
So, we could see North Korea do some very provocative things this year.
And when tensions rise on the peninsula, South Korean society often transfers that tension onto the US-SK alliance.
This article noted by GI Korea and others in the K-blogsphere says that 28% of Koreans believe the US is the biggest security threat to South Korea. That number rises dramatically when tensions with the North go up, because Koreans take it as a given the North will not attack as long as USFK in is Korea, because it would be suicide, but they have MUCH less faith that the US will not bomb the North - thus potentially starting a war.
So, if Kim Jong Il decides to act up this year in a big way, it could directly lead to another anti-US spike in South Korea.
Who knows?
Time will tell what the next spark will be - and how long of a wait until it comes - but my money is on the idea that it will take place within 8 months.
Winter break for the universities might be a time to watch….
Popularity: 3%
:mrgreen:...
1:04 pm on June 26th, 2008 1
How about taking nominations on what the next outburst of Han will be about, and the winner gets a Korea Finder point or two?
I say it will be about the Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercise in August. North Korea will renege on a greed flamework 3.0 and use the exercise as convenient subterfuge to withhold nuclear secrets. Coreans will press 2MB to resign, and there will be protest to force the cancellation of the exercise in some Team Spirit déjà vu.
1:06 pm on June 26th, 2008 2
The cows gone wild hysteria hasn’t died down just yet. I sent GI Korea some pics of violent protests that happened just last night, 26 June 2008.
1:10 pm on June 26th, 2008 3
Sorry, should have been 25 June, not 26…
1:11 pm on June 26th, 2008 4
Right now, I’m leaning toward North Korea causing a flare up around the time of the US election and lasting past it.
I predicted 2 years ago North Korea would not live to see 2009. The testing of the nuke so soon after the ICBM test screamed “desperation” to me — big desperation. I thought it was a sign NK feared it was going to make a run at collapse in the near future.
I had thought Bush’s flipflop might save Pyongyang, but One Free Korea’s reporting the last couple of months makes me believe the collapse might come within a year.
If that is the case, North Korea will raise tension —- and the US election would be a good time to do it before Bush is gone and the gov is soft due to the election cycle.
And if the world media starts seriously discussing the US bombing NK due to the North’s actions —–
—– South Korean society will get very tense and they will lay the blame on the US.
All of this is a long shot to happen - but I’m putting my money on it - for the time being…
1:36 pm on June 26th, 2008 5
usinkorea-nK will not implode anytime soon, no matter how much we might wish it. The nK party elite is not suffering, unless some small restricted access to whiskey is suffering. As for the common people they are the world champs of sucking it up. I’ve seen a half dozen reports in the past year of refugees in China and elsewhere still signing the praises of Kim Jong Il. In short, the party elite is controlled and fed, the army is fed (with 6th party rations coming soon), the productive areas are fed enough for subsistence, and the rest are too weak to do anything but starve or flee.
1:38 pm on June 26th, 2008 6
I almost forgot, I predict Han will be directed at the cost sharing agreements, especially in regard to the Humphreys slooooow move. SOFA is a safer bet, we are due our next incident, its statistics after all.
2:33 pm on June 26th, 2008 7
Welcome USinkorea, I’ve seen your comments and your blog for quite a while.
I remember watching vids off of your site that said we should leave and burn the bridges. I’m sure that was in response to various anti-US crap. But can you clarify your position?
Are you FOR keeping the troops here, a smaller footprint, no troops but deployable, support-only (supplies), or no support and troops at all?
3:24 pm on June 26th, 2008 8
The strategic value to America of SK’s geographic location is rendered useless by the hostility of the majority of the country’s people. Korean nationalism combined with dependency and shame have poisoned the relationship. Bush’s misguided efforts to mollify the SK people have failed. Time to go. SK needs to stand alone.
4:11 pm on June 26th, 2008 9
I dont know if anyone noticed by outside of Humphreys. a sign has been posted that tracks the noise levels of the diffrent camps around the country ….in English…Now maybe I lived too close to Navy Air Stations but the sign says Humphrey is at 48.0 (which I have no ideal what that means) but I think the air traffic is very quiet at Humphrey s
What is the point of putting up a sign like that in the first place? To piss off the average Korean..as they double park their cars or stop in the middle of the road to take a text message, they can look up and read how loud the air traffic is in the area.
6:03 pm on June 26th, 2008 10
Comment #9 — a year or so after the Maehyangri/koonni training range incident, the Korean courts upheld a civil suit against the Korean government for noise pollution near the main international airport - or something like that —– there have been a few cases like that since - including against the South Korean military and I believe USFK as well. It seems like this is a real issue in Korean society and the courts — by real meaning they take it seriously…
Comment #7
I want all troops pull out. Tripwire lite is still a tripwire.
What tips the scales for me on this issue —- is how dangerous North Korea is given the fact it is constantly near collapse but can still kill tens of thousands or more in a very short period of time if it decides to take out as many people as it can as it goes down.
NK might last another 50 years. It might collapse tomorrow.
I don’t want US troops to be in South Korea when it happens.
To me - it is a matter of the cost-to-benefits ratio —– and the costs far, far out weigh the benefits of keeping troops in Korea.
7:33 pm on June 26th, 2008 11
I don’t think on the present course the NK regime is about to collapse though I think it was close until the Bush administration removed the measures that were actually putting pressure on the regime.
With the cash they have been bringing in over the past year they should have enough money to keep muddling on by though with all the recent defections and reports from One Free Korea it is easy to see the regime is extremely unstable.
As far as USFK I am all for the relocation to Camp Humphreys by 2012 with no delays before implementing a full withdrawal. If the ROK is not serious about making the relocation happen then that is the excuse the Pentagon should use to pull at least the 2ID out which would probably instantly get the ROKs to make the relocation happen.
7:33 pm on June 26th, 2008 12
Personally I think North Korea has very little to do with our modern day presence in South Korea (all one has to do is look closely at the proposed USFK transformation to realize that), and the only way American bombs, bullets and boots will ever see Nork soil is if there is a catastrophic collapse of the regime.
9:46 pm on June 26th, 2008 13
Congrats with your “promotion” to the ROK Drop, Usinkorea. Nothing but luxury boats and Champaign for you from now on!
As for the surge in anit-Americanism, the only thing I can hope for is a unified conservative response to the lies and smears coming out of the left. They are fighting the tide, but now that the government has set “standards” for the beef, they need to drive home that these protesters are not interested in public safety in the least.
10:13 pm on June 26th, 2008 14
There are way too many reasons for the US Army not to leave Korea.
1. Congress authorizes only 11 Army 4-star officers. One of those is here in Korea.
2. See #1.
11:29 pm on June 26th, 2008 15
“GI Korea asked me if I’d like to do some posts here at his blog and I was honored.”
Heck GI, if I knew you needed help, I would be happy to lend a hand on your blog.
6:43 am on June 27th, 2008 16
You and I disagree on many issues but on the future of USFK, we see eye to eye, USinKorea.
I think Cheap Charlie is on to something. Vested interests in the US military and elsewhere will resist any attempts at troop withdrawals.
7:12 am on June 27th, 2008 17
I keep saying this but a withdrawal of USFK from Korea isn’t going to happen any time soon. The withdrawal of troops from Korea is going to be a slow motion one for a variety of reasons I have outlined before.
Currently the best way to reduce the USFK force footprint and remove them from the trip wire role is the relocation to Camp Humphreys. That is what USFK is heavily focused on making happen along with other transformation projects.
There are talks right now that the Eighth Army commander is going to be moved to Hawaii and possibly become a four star command which would mean the four star command concerns would be irrelevant if the Pentagon decides to do away with USFK commander role in the future.
7:20 am on June 27th, 2008 18
This idea, widespread in much of the world, that it’s not only okay for an adult to throw tantrums in the street, but that it constitutes serious political participation, seems to have reached its retarded apex in China’s cultural revolution followed by present-day South Korea. I’m so happy to live in a country where protesters are looked down upon by most reasonable people. That’s a thing we in the US have in common with Japan and another reason why it’s a good sign that the rest of the world hates us so much. The rest of the world is retarded.
The real question is what could a rational adult South Korean do to move his country’s culture off of the world short-bus and into a decent relationship with reality?
7:24 am on June 27th, 2008 19
But on a more serious note, Could you post links to your posts on why the withdrawal isn’t going to happen soon? I would love to know something about that.
I asked onetime before, I think but can anyone name a legitimate national security benefit to having troops in Korea? I have no opinion on this. It seems like that toe-hold in mainland Asia could be valuable at some point, but the cost of maintaining it– that is exposing our soldiers to a racist legal system, among other costs — may not be worth it.
9:09 am on June 27th, 2008 20
Even if the US troops are out, the Koreans already said that the foreign community will be used as a new tripwire. You can expect massive foreign casualties in order to outrage the west. I would not be surprised if SK black ops troops rounded up and assassinated English teachers in order to boost the numbers of dead foreigners.
Anyway, this is all meaningless. SK will never let the US leave. Once the US is gone, the teat will be gone and Korea will have to pay her own defense. Once the US is gone, Korea will have nobody to blame for all her problems.
10:35 am on June 27th, 2008 21
Luke I will put together an indepth posting next week on it that will lay out why a withdrawal of USFK isn’t going to happen anytime soon and why the focus needs to remain on making the Camp Humphreys relocation a reality.
By the way Shattered, I have long read USinKorea and respect his work so that is why I asked him to post here in order to diversify the site a bit and relieve some blogging pressure on me as my own work commitments increase.
However, I will probably make a posting about this later on announcing this but I am willing to except contributions from others if they have well formed and backed up opinions that they want to put into a posting. If you have something you want to contribute you can always email it to me and I will check out.
11:11 am on June 27th, 2008 22
On Luke’s question and on the discussion of the potential of USFK leaving:
I see no chance of it happening. And I base my opinion mostly on the pure power of the status quo: changing something as massive as USFK and the US-SK military alliance is a mammoth undertaking with all kinds of hurdles. We’re talking billions to trillions of dollars, and it is so much easier to continue paying the billions we already do under the current situation than spent just as much and more money in the short term to change things. Bureaucracies tend to have a life of their own and are hard to kill.
On the strategic arguments against pulling out — I won’t offer links, but I’d say go look at some of the stuff on Korea done at the CATO Institute — they have a couple of guys who have been laying out the argument for pulling out of Korea for several years. By reading them, you will find out what others are saying in favor of keeping troops in Korea by how the CATO people argue against their specific ideas.
I don’t remember hearing this idea for a couple of years - but one of the common arguments against pulling out of Korea used to be that such a move would naturally lead to us having to pull out of Japan as well.
….I never bought into that at all.
One idea you do hear regularly repeated today in favor of staying is that — if the US pulls out, South Korea will automatically swing into China’s sphere of influence, and China will use that to attempt to push the US out of East Asia altogether or at least hamper US Asia policy.
1:08 pm on June 27th, 2008 23
Thanks for the invite GI Korea. I look forward to helping educate people on Korea. What do you think about a series called:
1) Paper Citizens: Korean-UN-Americans and their UN-assimilation.
2) Korean Biographies: Cho Seoun Hui, Robert Kim and others
3) Korean food Series: Dog Meat
4) The real Korean wave: How Asian communities who have a large influx of Koreans feel about them.
5) Why you should boycott all thinks Korean.
Those are just some ideas GI, of course I will support anything I say with research. What do you think? Any additions?
10:53 pm on June 27th, 2008 24
Shattered,
6) Korean global domination of the oldest profession.
11:07 pm on June 27th, 2008 25
LOL thanks Mark.
By the way, I guess its clear I am an ESLer I wrote
“all thinks Korean”
Its pretty clear that at least two of those words should never go together
what about:
7) Studies in ungreatfulness: Koreas unpaid debt to China, Japan and the USA.
12:32 am on June 28th, 2008 26
“Studies in ungreatfulness? You are an ESLer.
3:40 am on June 28th, 2008 27
Sonagi,
Are the Korean people ungrateful or simply ungreat?
4:44 am on June 28th, 2008 28
Doug Bandow is among my favorite Cato scholars. He has often argued in support of withdrawing US troops. One of the points Bandow makes is that the difference between the population and GDP of Mexico and the United States is roughly equivalent to the differences in the population and GDP of North and South Korea. He asks, “would anyone seriously suggest that the United States, with its larger population and GDP, could not defend itself from Mexico?” Indeed South Korea could certainly defend itself from North Korea if it chose to commit the Won and industrial and personnel effort to do so. In order to buy the deterrence that US troops provide, it would certainly be expensive and may even require a larger military draft which would leave less young people available to do the really mportant things like protest American beef. I can see why that would be a bad thing.
I recall around the time of the Seoul Olympics, one Korean national assemblyman who was Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in a moment of rare candor said on the floor of the Assembly that “we shouldn’t think in terms of anti-Americanism or pro-Americanism, but rather we should think of Americans as mercenaries, someone we pay to protect us.”
In response, I sent that particular Assemblyman a tersely worded letter in Korean informing him that Americans were not mercenaries and asking him how he would like being referred to as a “prostitute National Assmemblyman.” He apparently didn’t appreciate my letter as I soon learned from sources in the headquarters that he had complained directly to the USFK Commander’s office about having received such an inflammatory letter from a US Army officer who, in sending such a letter, was interfering in internal politics of Korea. Fortunately for me, either the general or someone else in his ofice was amused by the whole affair and nothing came of it.
11:50 am on June 28th, 2008 29
Realistically, I agree that the troop pullout or even a reduction will not happen. Sadly our people will continue to pay taxes to an immobile and lost bureaucracy.
I will however, continue to speak out against the un-Consitutionality of our presence here, and hope that the changes necessary to get our country back on course will come about.
7:30 am on August 1st, 2008 30