I think the one thing we’ll all see from this is former Soviet satellite states rushing to gather defense agreements with NATO and more importantly the US. Whether or not they can get into NATO really has nothing to do with willingness on their part but with reluctance by Germany and France.

Notice how hastily the missile defense deal was concluded with Poland, despite months of reservations on the part of the Pols. Now one could assume that this agreement’s conclusion was merely coincidental with the situation in Georgia, but notice the other aspects of this agreement include the site be staffed by US service members and an additional defense pact from the US outside it’s current NATO obligations. The Pols are making sure that any military action against them will involve immediate assistance from the US.

I think we’ll see other states lining up to try and secure deals akin to this in the coming months. However, I am interested in seeing if the US is willing to assist countries that don’t have as much to give with regards to our national interests. If we do, then here comes Cold War II.

So true

Having US troops in Georgia for a humanitarian mission would effectively prevent the Russians from attacking the seaports and airports where the soldiers are located.

The no fly zone is an interesting idea if the ceasefire violations by the Russians continue. However I looking a map the US would need to get overflight rights from Turkey who may not want to get involved in all this right now.

Now the goddamn Russians are mocking the Georgians for having placed faith in American training. What should the people of Iraq and Afghanistan think of this?

The quickest way to turn the tables would be establishment of a no-fly zone.

I really appreciate this post. I lived in Georgia for two years in support of the GTEP and SSOP projects and have visited many times since in support of the same. My wife is Georgian and we have two kids. We just returned a few weeks ago.

The Georgians are a wonderful people and I am glad that you have pointed out that you don’t simply amass thousands of troops and 500+ armor in a monents notice, especially at 10,000 feet of elevation. This was a cold and calculated action and the Georgians can only be blamed for taking the Russian bait in an attempt to stop their villages from being bombed.

This is indeed a shot across the bow to the West and a strong message to the Ukraine, the Baltic states, and the Europe in general. Don’t be suprised this winter if Ukraine’s gas supplies are shut off due to “pricing disputes” and if mysterious seperatist groups sprout up in the Crimea where the Russian’s maintain a rented navy base that the Ukraine’s recently threatened to withhold the use of.

I am very worried for Georgia that the Soviet assault on its territorial integrity, which began in the early 1990’s with the Russian-backed expulsion of the majority Georgian population in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, is now a fait accomplait. Look for formal annexation within three years, probably less, unless by some miracle the West is able to negotiate a way out of this for Georgia.

Oh, and one more thing: The Russian “ceasefire” is a joke. Bombings and military actions continue on an ad-hoc basis; the scariest reports are of Russian paramilitary groups acting throughout northern and western Georgia.

Nice comments. Boiled down concisely so as to be easily understood as to what’s at stake for Russia and Georgia.

However, in this conflict, what is the US stake? Obviously, the US — though telling Russia to back off in no uncertain terms — can ill afford to intervene making it an empty threat. NATO will obviously never enter into this engagement. A cease fire is best to cool things down.

But my mind still asks the question — How important in Georgia to the US national interests? If it isn’t, then this is just Newsweek magazine material — with no action from the US or the world even if the Russians annexed it by force — and turned into another Bosnia-Herzogovina(?) bloodbath.