Richard Halloran has written a commentary on North Korea that appeared in the Washington Times on 19 Aug. Other respected blogs have either commented with statements of “Right On!!!” — or ”Never happen!!!”  

You remember Richard Halloran, don’t you?  He’s the guy about five years ago who said great changes were going to happen in the USFK with downgrading of the EUSA and move of I Corps to Japan and move of the 4-star slot to Hawaii under Pacific Command. The USFK publicly said that he was full of baloney and only speculating — except that most of what he said is coming true today.  In this commentary, he does a bit of speculating at the start — but nothing that is new.

But his commentary contained a few tidbits that got me thinking.     

Analysts everywhere point to a decade of hunger that has left 7-year-old North Korean children 8 inches shorter and 20 pounds lighter than their South Korean cousins. North Korean soldiers in a regime that gives priority to the military forces have been reduced to two skimpy meals a day.  

This means that the average South Korean soldier should be atleast 8 inches taller than their North Korean counterparts. What does this mean? The South Korean Army has to immediately start practicing on shooting targets that are atleast 8 inches lower than present. Maybe they should practice hand-to-hand combat with short South Korean women who are the same size as the average North Korean soldier.

But seriously, the scary part is that the weakened state of a North Korean army suffering from malnutrition — and spending most of its time finding food as the frontline units raise their own crops to survive — may bring out some of the famed ROK “arrogance” that others call “aggressive self-confidence.” This arrogance/self-confidence was reflected when Lee Myeong-bak said on 21 Aug during the UFG exercise that if the North should attack, the South should have the military might to end the conflict in ONE DAY.

Even so, an assessment from Jane’s, publisher of security reports, said five years ago: “The only significant power base that might challenge the regime is the military. Since Kim Jong-il became chairman of the National Defense Commission, however, he has promoted 230 generals. Most of the army’s 1,200-strong general officer corps owes their allegiance to him.” Nothing appears to have changed that judgment - except starvation.

IF conditions worsen in North Korea AND IF the ROK assumes Wartime Opcon in 2012 as planned. the ROK will be in control — and capable of setting up circumstances of confrontation if it chooses. With the big IF of the majority of the USFK move to Camp Humphreys completed — along with the 501st Intel from Yongsan moved –one wonders if the ROK arrogance/self-confidence could start showing. Backed by modernized equipment against the North’s numerically superior, but decrepit equipment, it might be the South rattling its sabre threatening military destruction of the North instead of vice versa. If this scenario does play out, you could have an aggressive and overly-confident group of ROK generals with a lot of expensive toys at their disposal facing off against an overly-loyal group of DPRK generals with a starving army and weapons that are falling apart — and the potential for an explosive situation.

BUT why do I think a face-off won’t happen?

… Moreover, South Korean young people have shown less interest in reconciliation with North Korea than their parents and grandparents because of the cost.

Therefore, one can be pretty sure that the South Korean people will NOT stand for any aggression to accelerate the fall of the North because the ROK would end up footing the bill for Unification — a cost the will run into the hundreds of billions of dollars — not counting the havoc to the social fabric of an influx of non-technical oriented labor flooding the market.

But at the same time, you may hear the increased ROK sabre rattling — amounting to statements such as “if you unleash a missile attack, you will cease to exist and half your people will be crispy mandu.” They may even reinvent the oft heard threat in a new form: “We will turn Pyeongyang into a sea of fire.” But first the ROK needs to beef up its war toy improvement programs that Roh sucked the life out of by shifting all the funds for procurement into social programs. It’ll be a few years before they are ready to do any sabre rattling of their own.

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