Can the US remove any or ALL of its troops without notifying/asking permission of the ROK ?

Can USFK deploy w/o permission of ROK to a military conflict?

LL: Tellin' ya I told ya so since…

How fondly I remember this quote: "CRC will be closed by 1992."

The USFK position has ALWAYS been from Gen Schwartz that these funds go into a bank account and the USFK uses it as it sees fit — where and when it sees fit. The ROK pays for the Yongsan move and it pays for the DMZ move (using the cost-sharing funds). This is the crux of the current "battle" going on.

The formula for cost-sharing reflects the Democratically-controlled Congress attitude that what the RoK pay 50 percent — actually the Congress said 75 percent. The RoK has tried every scheme possible to reduce its cost share — supposedly because it will cuts so deeply into their upgrade programs, but as I mentioned before, they really want to control the pace of the move by controlling the funds dispersal.

What has happened is that for the past TWO YEARS is that the ROK and USFK are NOT negotiating. They have meetings were each side sets out their positions and then they agree to disagree till next time.

The RoK is now trying to force the issue by saying the USFK MUST make concessions to meet the deadlines BEFORE the Oct SCM. It is an old Korean negotiation trick and the US side is not buying it.

Unlike GI Korea, I read between the lines at the end of the Oct 2007 SCM that the two sides were to be given another year to hash out the details of the Cost-Sharing formula BEFORE the next SCM. I read it as an "OR ELSE" threat — not a simple delay.

I believe the USFK can complete its move before 2012 — though it would mean that some troops would be living in a tent city until new dorms are built. The armor can be moved to Humphreys as the new highway movement procedures were worked out in 2007 — as the promised dedicated train system to Rodriquez Range never seemed to have come about. The training area won't be fully complete, but I'm sure the USFK can come up with work-arounds by using a combination of Camp Humphrey and other training ranges.

So what I'm saying is that I am saying there MAY be some surprises in store. It could go two ways — (1) the way GI Korea predicts with an extension of the date or (2) the US playing hardball and cuts come about that were delayed by Bush (reductions to 25,000 by the end of 2008).

This timeline that Gen Sharp speaks of is ESSENTIAL to the discussions of the Oct SCM. Last year there were too many things left undone because Roh Moo-hyun was still in control. Now it is a completely new ball game with Lee Myeong-bak in control — but LMB sees that there is no way the the ROK will be able to take control (on its terms) by 2012. He wants it stretched out to 2016 — and then further.

Remember that the USFK becomes a "support" command headed by a four-star — for however long that lasts — that is NOT subordinate to the ROK command. The USFK will be playing hardball — but with kid gloves as LMB is atleast an ally who wants to work with the USFK.

I believe the overall time-line is filled with "holes". Although the ten critical tasks have been handed over to the ROK, I believe that the actual capabilities "eye-washed". Anyway, they are now into the exercise/qualification phases. Even Gen Sharp admits that the ROK-USFK combination are only in the "crawl-walk" stages.

The USFK must make a decision. I believe the ROK military cannot be fully-capable by 2012. I believe the ROK can meet the eye-wash form of fulfilling the negotiated requirements (fact-based) by 2012 — versus the actual ability to meet the wartime tasking (opinion-based). The USFK decision comes down to whether it is willing to "backfill" the ROK weak areas, while turning over operational control to the ROK. This would mean that some elements of the USFK would be subordinate to the ROK in times of war. If it is NOT willing to do so, then the date will be extended. If it is willing to do so, the OPCON date stands.

I believe the ROK generals are looking objectively at their ability to fulfill the actual war-time tasking and see that they won't be ready until 2016 or more — as most of their weapons systems are now on order/on the drawing boards and won't be ready until after 2012. (The fault can be laid at the feet of Roh Moo-hyun and the Uri Party — now the merged UDP who like Bill Clinton slit the throat of the military to support his social programs.)

Thus I believe there is still some suspense left in the "time-line" that deals with Camp Humphreys — but how the USFK will meet the time line is still in question. The Oct SCM will be the decision-maker — whether the US is tired of the "negotiating game" and will take a "put-up or shut-up" stance.

With a Presidential election in the balance, it certainly looks like the GI Korea prediction would be the political choice — to put off any decision until the next President — whoever he may be — is in place. I hope otherwise.