Speculation continues to mount today that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is gravely ill:
U.S. officials think North Korea’s unpredictable dictator may be gravely ill.
A U.S. intelligence official says there is reason to believe Kim Jong Il is sick after he failed to show up at a North Korean national celebration on Tuesday.
A U.S. intelligence official says it is possible that Kim has suffered a stroke. That official and another U.S. source spoke on condition of anonymity to describe sensitive intelligence gathering. [Associated Press]
Fox News has confirmed that Kim Jong-il did not appear at his nation’s 60th anniversary celebration and are reporting that he had a stroke as well:
U.S. officials think North Korea’s unpredictable dictator may have suffered a stroke.
A U.S. intelligence official says there is reason to believe Kim Jong Il is sick after he failed to show up at a North Korean national celebration on Tuesday.
That official and another U.S. source spoke on condition of anonymity to describe sensitive intelligence gathering.
Kim has not been seen in public for a month and U.S. officials were closely watching Tuesday’s military parade for signs to the leader’s health. [Fox News]
South Korean and Russian officials are saying that the ceremony was greatly toned down since Kim Jong-il did not attend and primarily civilian militia forces marched in the parade. Like I have said before take reports of Kim Jong-il’s health with a grain of salt until they are confirmed, but the fact he did not appear at the 60th Anniversary celebration is significant.
So if Kim Jong-il has died what is next for the country? I see a couple of possibilities:
- Kim Jong-il’s oldest son takes power
- A military junta takes control of the country similar to Burma
Of the two possibilities I foresee Kim Jong-il’s oldest son, Kim Jong-nam taking power as the most likely scenario if Kim dies for many of the same reasons that North Korean expert Andrei Lankov stated years ago:
It is widely believed that a dynastic succession is the only way to save the regime from collapse after Kim Jong-il’s death. If a new leader came from outside the ruling family, he would have too much incentive to negotiate surrender to the prosperous and powerful South, likely sacrificing the lives and property of the current elite in exchange for his own security. He would also probably lack the legitimacy necessary to keep the country and populace under control. Frankly, this writer believes that nothing short of Chinese intervention will save the regime one way or another, but if the Pyongyang royalty does not want to go down without a fight, it makes sense to appoint a new leader from the incumbent royal family. [Asia Times]
Kim Jong-il’s health has been the source of many rumors for years now and talk of a successor being appointed has been going on just as long.
The 37 year old Kim Jong-nam was recalled back to Pyongyang from Macau last year to undertake an important government position which only further fueled speculation that he was being groomed to replace his father. The fact that Kim Jong-nam was just a few months before his return to Pyongyang endorsed by China to be Kim Jong-il’s successor only further cemented his status as the future leader of North Korea.
The Chinese as well as the North Korean ruling elite probably realize that only a son of Kim Jong-il could possibly take power in North Korea in order to continue to give creditability to the Cult of Kim that has been carefully constructed over the past few decades. The Kim family has sort of a God on Earth persona in North Korea and if someone outside of the Kim family takes power then that is a sign to the North Korean people that they have been lied to all these years about the status of the Kim family.
If Kim Jong-il dies and Kim Jong-nam takes power I do not expect big changes because the ruling elite which are the true power brokers in the country have to much lose if the country takes a dramatic turn with Kim’s death. Kim Jong-nam would more then likely be a figurehead of the ruling elite and the country will continue to play its brinkmanship games and operate its criminal enterprises in order to stay afloat.
I think the example of Syria with Bashar al-Assad the ruler of Syria is a perfect example of what could happen with North Korea. There was a lot of hopes after Assad’s father died that the Bashar who attended ophthalmology school in London would bring positive change to the country since like Kim Jong-nam he had little involvement in Syrian politics and had experience living outside his country.
As we now know, Bashar al-Assad did not bring liberal change to the country because Syria is still a state sponsor of terrorism that has been busy in recent months assassinating Lebanese politicians in order to regain control of Lebanon after the Cedar Revolution kicked the Syrians out of the country. Under Assad, the Syrians even were so bold to try and secretly develop a nuclear capacity with the help of the North Koreans until the facility was bombed last year by the Israelis.
Bashar did not bring liberal change to Syria for the same reason Kim Jong-nam cannot bring liberal change to North Korea, the ruling elites have too much to lose. I’m sure Bashar al-Assad and Kim Jong-nam both know this, so any liberal change they try to bring to the country without the approval of the ruling elite is sure to end badly for them.
So if Kim Jong-il does die many will probably be happy with the news and think better things are to come for North Korea. I for one will reserve judgment on such better things until they become a reality because I remember hearing the same things about Assad and look how well that turned out.
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10:22 am on September 9th, 2008 1
60 is a rather key anniversary date in Korean culture….very key….
I’d have to think Kim not being at the festivities means something important.
I’ll be amazed if North Korea holds together if Kim is known to the people to be a corpse.
They have suffered so much for so long - and things are very bad right now.
Kim Il-Sung was a true hero to them at the time of his death. I see no way anybody can step in after Jong-Il’s death like he was able to do when his father thankfully left the earth.
I can’t see the military holding the society together either.
10:42 am on September 9th, 2008 2
Wasn’t the eldest son on the outs? I thought it was his second son that was getting the reins and supposedly being groomed as the successor. Anyhow, if KJI die bite the big bullet, there will be a massive power struggle as KJI has not officially named his heir.
When Kim Il-sung died, Kim Jong-il did not step immediately into his father’s shoes — even though he was appointed as the successor. He was too politically weak. There was a lot of political wrangling going on and KJI had to get his “special” troops to swear allegiance to him before he emerged as Dear Leader. The situation now would be different as there is no clear cut successor.
It will be a power struggle between the same factions that were vying for power then. If I remember right, there were five major players back when Kim Il-sung died and they haven’t gone away — they’ve only been biding their time.
10:43 am on September 9th, 2008 3
[...] post by GI Korea and software by Elliott [...]
11:06 am on September 9th, 2008 4
[...] Original post by GI Korea [...]
11:20 am on September 9th, 2008 5
If it’s true that Kim Jong-Il is in effect debilitated physically, and no longer able to carry on meaningfully as supreme executive, I don’t expect the current status quo in the North collapse in a precipitous manner.
Long story short: I don’t think that the South Koreans, and most importantly the Chinese, would allow such a thing to happen. Even if a power struggle were to ensue, my feeling is that it is most likely the Chinese would step to fill in any political void within short order.
If there’s anything the Chinese and South Korean fear the most, it is the prospect for utter chaos along their borders.
11:32 am on September 9th, 2008 6
On the time delay of Jong-Il’s assuming power, I think another factor is simply the 3 year Confucian mourning period.
On China and South Korea not letting the North collapse, I know they’d prefer that, but my feeling is that the situation in the North will deteriorate so quickly once the news is widespread, the only option China would have would be to move large amounts of troops in, and that is a full collapse of the North anyway….
11:58 am on September 9th, 2008 7
I believe a few months back China did announce that it already had contingency plans in place in case of a DPRK implosion. As was said before, it is not to either China’s or the South’s benefit if the North collapses. Neither wants any of the starving hoardes rushing across their borders.
USinKorea — At the time, there was no mention of a 3-year mourning period at all. KJI simply kept slipping the date of his assumption of power. There was a lot of power politics going on behind the closed doors of North Korea.
12:33 pm on September 9th, 2008 8
I can remember that the idea of the 3 year Confucian period wasn’t mentioned in outside media reports of it - but was nothing mentioned inside North Korea? I’d have to check and it doesn’t matter much either way. But, North Korea, for all the Juche talk, has a lot of traditional Korean Confucianism in it.
On China, I’m not saying, at all, that China’s intentions in North Korea are good — but the Chinese government would be utterly failing the society — if it did not have several possible plans on what to do if NK starts to collapse.
I’d really like to know what Japan’s plans are like…..
12:44 pm on September 9th, 2008 9
If they didn’t even bother to use the body double, things must be really bad. I’m guessing the guy croaked.
(Do you suppose Roh is up for the job?)
12:58 pm on September 9th, 2008 10
First of all…Good Riddance!
Still, I would ask this question: “Was N. Korea responsible for the majority of their actions supporting terrorism, or were they mere puppets, being used by other countries, as plausible deniability?”
I say completly seal the entire country off via sanctions, blockades, etc., and run PSYOPS, covert agents set on subversion, strategic disruption, relative exfiltration, etc. and give them a taste of their own medicine.
4:35 pm on September 9th, 2008 11
Hmmm…I’ll wait for more sources (and believe it when I see it) US intel isn’t very reliable.
6:10 pm on September 9th, 2008 12
Kalani, Kim Jong-nam had lost favor with his dad due to his playboy ways which culminated with him getting arrested in Japan with a false passport trying to go to Disneyland. However, it has been reported that the Chinese favored Kim Jong-nam replacing his father which a few months later Kim Jong-nam returned to Pyongyang to work an important government position probably in order to start getting him prepared to become his father’s successor.
I do not see the regime collapsing if Kim Jong-il dies. Kim Jong-nam I think would step in and not have as much power as his dad has but would at a minimum be a figure head to keep the Cult of Kim alive. If the regime was on the verge of collapse if Kim dies the Chinese would get involved to keep the regime propped up in whatever way necessary.
In regards to after Kim Jong-il took power there was a lot of internal issues taking place within North Korea to include even an attempted military coup that was put down. Jasper Becker’s book Rogue Regime explains a lot of the internal dynamics going on inside North Korea at the time.
However, since it is North Korea like I said before it is best to take any reports from the place with a grain of salt due to their secret ways.
6:39 pm on September 9th, 2008 13
I am hearing one scenario that puts Kim Jong-nam in charge and another from those who’s political wrangling would be of paramount importance, to the point of making Kim Jong-nam a puppet. More likely Kim Jong-nam would be installed as the new leader and fractionalism takes place between those who support Kim vs those who feel it is thier last opportunity to take control. Look for a short civil war and an uprising of the people.
2:47 am on September 10th, 2008 14
My thoughts are much more with the people. I have a feeling the people are not going to be governable.
4:45 am on September 10th, 2008 15
We (the US) still have Jenkins close by in Japan. We could set up a puppet government with Jenkins at the head then slowly allow S. Korea to gain control over the North. With Jenkins in control we could update the N. Korean army (millions) and turn all the guns toward China and Russia. Maybe this is what General C was talking about when he was discussing forces stationed in Korea being used as a regional force.
4:59 am on September 10th, 2008 16
I agree with GI Korea, China will be heavily involved with Kim’s successor, either with his son or a military leadership. I can see Beijing being a lot more “hands on” with a weaker leader than KJI to the point he would be China’s puppet.
5:19 am on September 10th, 2008 17
I think many of you are jumping the gun here. He isn’t dead yet. My understanding is that he has had a stroke and making a reasonably good recovery.
7:58 am on September 10th, 2008 18
[...] As expected North Korea has officially denied reports of Kim Jong-il’s poor health: [...]
8:09 am on September 27th, 2008 19
[...] over the fact that once again the six party talks failed and he tries to blame it on reports that Kim Jong-il is sick. Like McCain said, how does Obama know Kim Jong-il is sick? Even the NY Times has said that [...]
5:53 am on October 11th, 2008 20
[...] from the pictures it appears Kim has lost a little to no weight from whatever illness he had, if he even had an illness at all when compared to pictures of him [...]
9:59 pm on October 23rd, 2008 21
Recently a RAND analyst raised the likelihood of a Chinese occupation in case of a North Korean collapse at a briefing in Seoul.
We don’t know the fill briefing but two statements in the article left a lot of room for interpretation.
“… he forecast Chinese occupation of a portion of North Korea or a threat of invasion to South.” It can be reasonably expected that China would occupy some border territory in North Korea to stop a flood of refugees flooding into China, but an invasion is another thing.
The article reported:
In 1979, when ROK President Park was assassinated, the U.S. and the U.N. already had forces in ROK. Despite what many ROK dissenters say, there never was any international concern that the U.S. would attempt to occupy the country. But, at the same time, the U.S. sent a very clear message to the DRK not to try to exploit the situation and move on the South.
I wonder if the analyst took into account the population of DPK? How would they respond to Chinese troops moving into their capital? They tolerated nearly 60 years of oppression because it was under revered Koreans. The Chinese would only be seen as foreign occupiers. Even in the North, I am sure they have been well schooled in Korea’s histories with occupiers. There would be massive and blood rebellions that would insist on an international response.
Maybe this would be the first big international test Biden promised and McCain boasts no one would challenge him with.
7:47 am on October 24th, 2008 22
JOEC “China would have two to three times the quality advantage”? In what way? I could understand a quantity advantage but not quality. Was he saying the quality of the Chinese military as a organization was better or was he indicating equipment? I know you didn’t get the entire briefing, but any clue as to where this individual was coming from? Everything I have read about the Chinese military would suggest the opposite. The South Koreans have a very modern and effective airforce that would be paramount in any war with China. While the Chinese are up and coming I don’t see where they have reached the point of being able to match the South Koreans.
7:49 pm on October 27th, 2008 23
[...] For whatever reason the Japanese media seems to continuously have some great sources within North Korea and here is another example of them breaking an important story. The fact that Kim Jong-nam is doctor shopping in Paris a neurosurgeon is a pretty good indication that Kim Jong-il probably did have a stroke. [...]