I have to wonder if reports of the Bush administration preparing an appeasement deal with North Korea were prompted by intelligence that the North Koreans were preparing for another nuclear test?:
U.S. television network ABC says North Korea appears to have made preparations for a second nuclear test.
Citing high-ranking U.S. officials, the report said that satellite pictures from the last two weeks showed signs of tunnels being dug and the unloading of large cables at a suspected test site in North Korea.
U.S. officials were inconclusive on whether the moves had been made for actual nuclear testing or for pressuring the United States ahead of negotiations.
Pyongyang shocked the world when it conducted its first nuclear test in October 2006. [KBS Global]
Wouldn’t that be quite the October surprise before the US election with North Korea setting off a nuclear bomb. Maybe that would actually get someone in the media to start asking some tough questions about each of the candidates North Korea policies.
Popularity: 1%
:mrgreen:...
2:26 pm on October 10th, 2008 1
[...] see ROK Drop and One Free [...]
6:28 pm on October 10th, 2008 2
Bottom line: Chances are close to nil that the North Korean leadership will ever give up their nuclear weapons. In addition to this, can one really expect North Korea to sincerely permit any truly effective nuclear weapons verification system to be put in place? This is wishful thinking on the part of Washington. Pyongyang has a strange way of getting what it “needs” from those it has the most ill will towards.
7:43 pm on October 10th, 2008 3
Hmmm?
Could this be “Intention?”
10:54 pm on October 10th, 2008 4
Back when there was speculation Kim Jong Il had a stroke, I said we’d need to watch for an ICBM and/or nuke test in the coming months.
When NK is weak, it likes to project strength. When it needs help desperately, it tries desperate means to gain concessions.
And we keep giving in….
Testing a nuke or ICBM is big. These are North Korea’s too biggest buttons to push. And I believe NK wouldn’t use them unless they are really hurting - hurting much more than usual.
Last time they did both those things within a couple of months of each other, I predicted NK would collapse within 2 years. I’ve got about 2 months left on that prediction. It doesn’t look good.
But, I stand behind the reasoning - NK has shown itself too smart at manipulating the outside world to use up its best cards like that. If it felt the need to do so, there must be some significant reason behind it.
The most likely reason — internal fear of collapse.
And lastly, besides the nuke and ICBM tests, blood-letting is NK’s third top tier button to press. We haven’t seen that one yet. They must be holding it in reserve.