By Just think soldiers will have fought and withdrawn from Iraq probably before USFK was able to move a few thousand soldiers to Camp Humphreys:
The Hankyoreh Shinmun has confirmed that the relocation of United States Forces Korea to Pyeongtaek is set to be completed by 2019, seven years later than the originally planned timeframe of 2012, leading to concerns about the move incurring even greater costs than expected.
Minutes of an October 3 meeting of a regular special subcommittee of the Land Partnership Plan reviewed by The Hankyoreh on October 21 quote an American colonel with the last name Russell, the subcommittee’s USFK representative, as saying the move will be delayed by three years because of budgetary issues on the American side. He is quoted as saying that according to the Program Management Consortium report, the timetable for moving the USFK from Yongsan will be 2016 and the 2nd Infantry Division in Dongducheon and Uijeongbu will be done moving by 2019.
The Yongsan base would begin moving by 2012 and the move would be complete by 2016, while the 2nd Division would undergo the same process and be done moving by 2019, he was quoted as saying, adding that they think the 2nd Division could be moved earlier. [Hankyoreh]
The Korean government has never wanted the USFK relocation to happen for a variety of reasons and the only reason it has gotten as far as it has was because of former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s threat to withdraw USFK which was made quite clear with the redeployment of 2nd Brigade of the 2nd Infantry Division from the Korean peninsula along with a host of other troop cuts. A few days after Rumsfeld resigned from office the Korean government immediately reneged on the transformation deal and announced the first delay of the Camp Humphreys relocation to 2012.
Since then the delays have only increased with the latest delay being 2016 and now the Korean government wants to spend even less money for the maintenance of the US-ROK alliance. At the same time the Korean government has been rejecting cost saving changes for the relocation which is what is now probably forcing these further delays of the USFK transformation. It will be interesting to see what USFK has to say about these latest Korean media reports, but I think they will have a hard time denying them.
This is all so predictable and as long as the political will in Washington remains the way it is the USFK gravy train will continue to roll at the expense of the welfare of US soldiers forced to serve a year in Korea separated from their families and living in sub-standard living conditions. Obviously few people in Seoul or Washington care about that.
So is there any more bets yet if Songdo or Camp Humphreys will be built first? Better yet will the Iraq War end before Camp Humphreys is relocated?
5:23 pm on October 22nd, 2008 1
Bwaaaaahhhhaaaaa!
It keeps edging closer to my original prediction, 2028!
/same as it ever was – same as it ever was…
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8:37 pm on October 22nd, 2008 2
The only question now is how much the failed relocation is going to cost.
This is never going to happen. North Korea will collapse and the US will be pulling USFK out before any serious relocation takes place.
The US Embassy bought a plot to rebuild a long, long time ago, a site chosen by the Seoul government, and the embassy is still on the same location, and the land had to eventually be sold.
This is never going to happen….
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8:53 pm on October 22nd, 2008 3
I was certain that the USFK would hold its ground on a 2012 date — and I have been proven wrong. Gen Sharp, your timeline and all the rest from you was strictly bullshit!!! Or was it? The Hankyoreh and Joongang Ilbo stories are not from the USFK as far as I can see.
If this proves to be true, I will not believe another thing out of Gen Sharp’s mouth. And Sharp had better explain how the USFK has changed its reasoning of using discretionary funds (from the cost-sharing negotiations) to make the move. If it is because the ROK is refusing to up their cost-sharing for 2009 — let the god-damn chips fall where they may and start moving the troops out. Play the old authorized versus assigned game — keep the authorized at 28,500 and drop the assigned to 25,000. Enough of this crud.
I am irate!!!
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9:42 pm on October 22nd, 2008 4
Kalani I’m no longer irate, this is just a sad comedy any more which I see no one showing any leadership to address.
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4:54 am on October 23rd, 2008 5
One should not discount the notion that “budgetary issues on the American side” could be a veil reference to looming DoD budget cuts.
With the coming change in administration and the $700B bank bailout now in effect, DoD is having to readjust its funding priorities.
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5:03 am on October 23rd, 2008 6
USFK lost all validity when it held to the 2006 (I think – been so long ago) move date. Actually, I think remaining at current locations is a plus. Also, we got rid of all the nasty farmers around Humphreys and now the new land owners can receive rice payments.
It may not be good to place all resources in one small location – Pearl Harbor thinking.
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5:57 am on October 23rd, 2008 7
I predict USFK leaves Korea in 2525. It will not leave so much as get absorbed by the GREAT KOREAN EMPIRE RULER OF EARTH.
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4:38 pm on October 23rd, 2008 8
Pull the F___ Out. Stop playing the damn game. Not like they will miss us. Not like we are NEEDED.
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12:48 am on October 24th, 2008 9
Here’s my prediction: When I come back here again in 2024 as the Division Commander, I’ll be living in the same hooch I am now as a major, because housing will have rented out the CG’s quarters to the Korean Golf Pro.
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6:52 am on October 24th, 2008 10
[...] seen recently with all the delay games that are preventing the USFK transformation plan, the current Korean government has no intention of stopping the current subsidizing of the South [...]
3:14 pm on October 24th, 2008 11
We have been there WAY too long already. Time to pull another Bde out. I pulled “4″ tours in Korea, with the last being in 82. It is time for Korea to take care of there own country.
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6:25 pm on October 24th, 2008 12
If Obama wins, maybe we will see USFK leave, but I doubt it.
It depends on if he and the Dems will have the balls to pull troops out of Iraq. If they do, I’d think it is a sure thing that outside influences will come flooding in and whatever cohesion Iraq has will splinter and either chaos will reign for a good number of years or a new dictator will be put in place and the Kurds will have to fight for themselves.
The chances of that will cause concern among the Dems and might be enough to stay their hands – but I’d give that little more than 25-35% chance. Maybe Obama will go back to a No-Fly Zone for the Kurds….
If he does pull troops out of Iraq, then I doubt he will have the desire and staying power to pull them out of South Korea.
If he doesn’t pull them out of Iraq, and he make a major push in Aghanistan, he’ll have to get the troops from somewhere, and maybe some in the DOD who have wanted out of Korea for some time will talk his administration into downsizing USFK in a major way.
Added to these considerations on what to do with the troops —- will be the very significant budget cuts he will most likely do with the military.
If he builds up in Afghanistan – and/or stays the course in Iraq – that will likely be a major chunk of change to spend. So where will the massive budget cuts come from? Closing a bunch of state-side bases? We tried that before and it didn’t sit too well with politicians….
South Korea and even Japan will look like juicy targets to get some fat trimming.
I give it an even 50/50 chance we’ll see an Obama administration return to pressure on USFK along the level that Rumsfeld put on it.
Time will tell
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6:39 am on October 26th, 2008 13
[...] seen recently with all the delay games that are preventing the USFK transformation plan, the current Korean government has no intention of stopping the current subsidizing of the South [...]