It depends on if he and the Dems will have the balls to pull troops out of Iraq. If they do, I’d think it is a sure thing that outside influences will come flooding in and whatever cohesion Iraq has will splinter and either chaos will reign for a good number of years or a new dictator will be put in place and the Kurds will have to fight for themselves.

The chances of that will cause concern among the Dems and might be enough to stay their hands – but I’d give that little more than 25-35% chance. Maybe Obama will go back to a No-Fly Zone for the Kurds….

If he does pull troops out of Iraq, then I doubt he will have the desire and staying power to pull them out of South Korea.

If he doesn’t pull them out of Iraq, and he make a major push in Aghanistan, he’ll have to get the troops from somewhere, and maybe some in the DOD who have wanted out of Korea for some time will talk his administration into downsizing USFK in a major way.

Added to these considerations on what to do with the troops —- will be the very significant budget cuts he will most likely do with the military.

If he builds up in Afghanistan – and/or stays the course in Iraq – that will likely be a major chunk of change to spend. So where will the massive budget cuts come from? Closing a bunch of state-side bases? We tried that before and it didn’t sit too well with politicians….

South Korea and even Japan will look like juicy targets to get some fat trimming.

I give it an even 50/50 chance we’ll see an Obama administration return to pressure on USFK along the level that Rumsfeld put on it.

Time will tell

With the coming change in administration and the $700B bank bailout now in effect, DoD is having to readjust its funding priorities.