It appears more and more people are beginning to believe what I said over two years ago, if South Korea is not ready to occupy a collapsed North Korean state, the Chinese will:
A leading U.S. scholar warns South Korea should prepare for Chinese military intervention and occupation of North Korea or possible attacks against the South’s military in the event of a regime collapse in the North. Dr. Bruce Bennett of the defense-oriented RAND Corporation delivered an address at a seminar in Seoul on Tuesday hosted by the South Korean Army at the War Memorial of Korea, where he forecast Chinese occupation of a portion of North Korea or a threat of invasion to South.
The RAND Corporation is a research and development institution created in 1948 by civilian scientists and researchers who had been commissioned by the U.S. Air Force. Bennett is the North Korea expert there.
He said if China decides to intervene after a collapse, its armies will arrive in Pyongyang before South Korean troops get there, and if a battle breaks out, then Chinese forces would have two to three times the quality advantage. Technical assistance from the United States, based on a continued Korea-U.S. alliance would be crucial, he added. [Chosun Ilbo]
Dr. Bennett’s comments relate back to an article he wrote earlier this year that goes into greater detail of his views on North Korean regime collapse:
If Kim Jong-il suddenly found himself in very desperate, regime-threatening circumstances, might he decide to embrace conflict as a means for gaining the support of rebellious groups in the North? Or if Kim died, could the regime fail and lead to internal chaos into which South Korea and perhaps China would eventually be forced to intervene for humanitarian and security purposes? (…)
South Korea’s inability to carry out offensive operations could allow Kim Jong-il to survive failed attacks on South Korea and then repeat them, at very high cost to South Korea. Or South Korea might be forced to allow anarchy to rule North Korea on its border. In contrast, China is unlikely to accept such anarchy on its border and may feel compelled to intervene; a South with inadequate offensive capabilities might have to accept Chinese control of large parts of North Korea for some time. [Dr. Bruce Bennett - Rand Corp]
Something I didn’t see specified in Dr. Bennett’s article is what he envisions for the US’s role in a collapsed North Korean state. I have long maintained that no US troops should move into North Korea if the regime collapsed, which has put my views at odds with people I respect such as John Bolton and Nicholas Eberstadt.
If US forces moved into North Korea if the regime collapsed, that would be an excuse for the Chinese to move in. The Chinese want to keep the North Korean buffer state along their border and will not willingly go along and give it up if they can help it. That is why I have always believed that if the ROK Army was prepared to execute an immediate occupation of North Korea if the regime collapsed, China would then have a harder time legitimizing any invasion of North Korea with their own forces if the ROK Army is already moving in to stabilize the situation.
US forces moving into North Korea would only legitimize any Chinese action into North Korea plus cause a host of other issues.
Dr. Bennett’s article is more then just about regime collapse and Chinese intervention. Here is a good statement from Dr. Bennett’s article that greatly counters anyone’s argument that North Korea is serious about denuclearizing:
Many experts on North Korea are skeptical that North Korea will ever dismantle its entire nuclear weapon arsenal, because these capabilities have been so critical to North Korea. Consider this: How is it that a nearly bankrupt country of only about 20 million people can stand up to three members of the U.N. Security Council and Japan, four of the wealthiest countries in the world? And in doing so, North Korea often comes out the victor. Would North Korea have such leverage without nuclear weapons? Would the North Korean regime be able to survive without such appearances of empowerment?
I have long maintained that North Korea is not going to denuclearize and I recommend everyone read the Strategic Disengagement Theory to find out why.
Also here is what Dr. Bennett thinks about the current state of the US-ROK alliance:
Today, the United States provides most defense and deterrence capabilities that South Korea cannot. The United States spends about 100 trillion won each year to man, equip, and prepare forces committed to assisting South Korea in a time of war. The United States has been willing to make such a large contribution to South Korean security for decades, effectively subsidizing the South Korean economy. But many in the United States feel that it is now time to let South Korea be more self-reliant. Every effort should be made to achieve this mutual interest in South Korean self-reliance.
In moving toward military self-reliance, South Korea wants to move from a junior partner to a full partner in the alliance relationship. To do so, it should be prepared to accept the responsibilities of full partnership. The United States has appreciated South Korean contributions in East Timor, Iraq, Lebanon and elsewhere. Still, South Koreas efforts have not reached those of a full partner like the United Kingdom, which has an active duty military force one-third the size of South Koreas. South Korea needs to examine this issue more closely as it plans its role in the future of the alliance.
As seen recently with all the delay games that are preventing the USFK transformation plan, the current Korean government has no intention of stopping the current subsidizing of the South Korean economy with the US military presence in South Korea.
Make sure to read Dr. Bennett’s entire article because it is a pretty good run down on the current state of affairs on the Korean peninsula. Hopefully Dr. Bennett’s views will further motivate policy makers to continue to take the issue of Chinese intervention in a collapsed North Korean state seriously, which there has been some recent indications policy makers finally are.
9:49 am on October 24th, 2008 1
I still say that the people of North Korea will have a very significant input into who they allow to move into their country after a collapse of the DRK.
Koreans, even South Koreans, have a greater chance of acceptance than foreign occupiers.
USFK and the U.N. should immediately provide the ROK with any and all the logistics and remote combat support they need, but it would be imperative that Koreans make contact and offer assurance to their brothers in the North.
The Chinese may still be able to rationalize occupying some border territory, but they would have no justification for moving on the capital and all of the carnage that would result.
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10:58 am on October 24th, 2008 2
The Chinese look upon the Koreans as an ethnic minority member of the Chinese nation. They will have no hesitation to occupy North Korea if the chance presents itself.
I’m glad to see this likely scenario get the attention it needs.
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4:32 pm on October 24th, 2008 3
People have said the same thing since 1952.
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6:02 pm on October 24th, 2008 4
STEVE, “The Chinese look at the Koreans as an ethnic minority of the Chinese nation”. That may hold sway with some Chinese ideologists but not with the Koreans. The Koreans, if nothing else, know their history and the invasions from China that were beaten back time and again. They take great pride in having done so. I would not rely on North Korean cooperation in subservience to a greater China. I believe they would risk a failed war with the south first.
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9:37 pm on October 24th, 2008 5
As I have posted before…the U.S. will have to secure the Chinese & Russian borders in conjunction with S. Korean forces.
This “Head-in-the-clouds” thinking that China & Russia will honor N. Korea’s bounderies is typical of the mentality that our leadership, both military & Civilian, has been indoctrinated with since WWII. Is it any wonder that we haven’t won a war since then?
In addition, we must ensure that a firm timetable is instituted from the get go, to include our timely departure once certain goals have been met, and our eventual departure from the Korean peninsula altogether in the end.
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11:06 pm on October 24th, 2008 6
North Korea has always been part of China.
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5:02 am on October 25th, 2008 7
We missed our chance in the early 90s to whip NK. Now China has grown up and presents more a of problem.
My opinion – Bush should invade before he leaves office. This would suprise no one, stablize NK, keep China at bay, give a future administration a scape goat, and prevent a larger conflict in the future.
I think NK was kinda hoping for this to happen and agitated as much as possible but nothing happened.
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7:17 am on October 25th, 2008 8
Gerry:
Given that the only thing the South Koreans seem ready to fight against is beef from the US, I take the position that the Chinese will have a cake walk when they take over North Korea.
I suggest buying stock in companies making candles as the candle light protests and tears will be touching.
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9:51 am on October 25th, 2008 9
CHIM CHIM and STEVE, where did you ever get the idea at anytime in history that Korea was part of China? And thanks for the tip on the candles, I’ll buy in as soon as I get rid of my half interest in a Chinese dairy farm
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10:07 am on October 25th, 2008 10
Gerry:
I do not personally believe the Chinese position, I’m stating my estimation of how the Chinese view the proposition of annexing North Korea from what I’ve read and past history.
I personally hope that things don’t work out the way I’ve projected.
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11:00 am on October 25th, 2008 11
CALM SEAS, The US, if needed, can provide many valuable services to the South Koreans in the “reunification” of Korea, including our airforce and all the capabilities that come with it. However the introduction of US ground forces is another matter. The Russians would view any use of US ground forces as an invasion of North Korea by the west, and act appropriately.(To resist the invasion of North Korea by the imperialist running dogs and help the prolitariate of North Korea regain thier rightful glory.) With no US ground forces involved the Russians and Chinese would be hard pressed to find an excuse to invade. Any Chinese historical claims would not hold water anywhere in the world except the ideological hardliners in China.
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4:24 pm on October 25th, 2008 12
China started invading North Korea years ago:
China raises its stake in North Korea
By Andrei Lankov
SEOUL – North Korea is living through a foreign language boom. Learning languages has always been a good way to secure lucrative and prestigious jobs in the country, but in past one had to specialize in Russian, French or English.
These days, Chinese is becoming the most popular choice, more or less equal to English. And it would appear young and ambitious North Koreans are making the right decision.
The Chinese presence in North Korea is growing fast. In 2004, Chinese investment in the economy reached US$50 million. This year, the figure will be $85-90 million. This is remarkable growth: merely two years ago, in 2003, Chinese investment was just $1.1 million.
This year, the trade volume between China and North Korea is expected to reach $1.5 billion. Not a great amount of money by the international standards, perhaps, but it still makes China the largest trade partner of the North. The share of trade with China is likely to reach 48% of all North Korean foreign trade. With the investment, China’s share is even higher – some 85%.
Chinese traders are highly present in Pyongyang, and make up a large part of the crowds in Pyongyang’s major casino, open only to foreigners. And in a much-publicized deal, a Chinese company has entered a joint venture to run First Department Store, the major shopping mall of the North Korean capital and its prominent landmark.
This growth in the Chinese presence is seen by Seoul with certain unease. The scale of activity is unprecedented, and it is well known that trade with or investment in North Korea has seldom been profitable. Throughout the 60-year history of this peculiar place, most trade with Pyongyang has been politically motivated.
Foreign powers traded with North Korea because this was seen as a way to increase influence there. And it seems the same motivation is behind the present-day Chinese trade boom. So it comes as no surprise that South Korean officials, journalists and academics in the last two years have begun to talk about China’s “neo-colonial push” toward North Korea.
There are reasons for this suspicion. China has both serious incentives to keep North Korea afloat, and the ability to do so. The strategic goals of China are influenced by its rivalry with the United States. This rivalry lacks the intensity of the Cold War once waged by the Russians and Americans, but it is real nonetheless.
Since a unified Korea (should it ever happen) is likely to remain under a strong American influence, and perhaps even have a continuing US military presence, its unification would mean a deterioration of China’s strategic position. In 1950, China chose to fight a major war to prevent exactly this – the unification of the Korean peninsula under a pro-US government.
The continuing survival of North Korea is also important for Chinese domestic policy. In spite of all its economic successes, the communist government still has concerns over internal stability, and the collapse of another communist regime might have consequences for Chinese internal stability.
Importantly, China has the means to support the North Korean regime. After all, one or two billion dollars a year are sufficient to keep Pyongyang afloat. This is a large sum, but quite affordable for China. If North Korea receives such a regular subsidy, in all probability it will try to re-start the former system of complete state control and rationing of consumer goods. Even though this is incompatible with economic growth, it will help keep the populace both alive and obedient.
However, more sinister scenarios are being discussed in Seoul these days. There are growing worries that Chinese involvement will not be limited to just shipping trainloads of grain and fertilizer to prevent the North Korean government from collapsing. More direct involvement in the event of a crisis is possible, up to the point of installing a pro-Chinese government in Pyongyang, according to some observers. These fears are not necessarily paranoid: if anything, South Korean public opinion is rather pro-Chinese these days.
The “Chinese solution” might be welcomed by the North Korean elite, which is cornered, and aware of its own embattled situation. Unlike the rulers of the former Soviet Union, China or most East European countries, the North Korean apparatchiks cannot reinvent themselves as successful capitalist entrepreneurs.
The existence of prosperous and democratic South Korea means that a complete collapse of the North Korean system will probably lead to a German-style unification. If this were to happen, the people who run the North now will have no chance of keeping their privileges, and perhaps have reasons to worry about their lives.
Despite recent relaxations, their rule is brutal, and their past deeds, when exposed, are likely to produce cries for revenge. It is physically impossible to persecute all North Koreans officials, but it is clear that they will not be able to keep their privileged position in a post-Kim Jong-il era.
For the North Korean elite, China might appear to be the lesser evil than their “compatriots” in the South. China is not famous for its concern for human rights or democracy, and if Beijing establishes in North Korea a sort of friendly dependent government, one can be sure that no questions would be asked about the past of North Korean bureaucrats employed in the new system.
Even if such dramatic events do not take place, the Chinese presence is already useful now, as it can be used as diplomatic leverage against the South.
It is clear that in Beijing the temptation to keep North Korea under control is high. But will the benefits of some open or semi-open intervention outweigh the associated problems and losses? After all, China’s competition with the US is very unlikely to develop into a military confrontation.
Certainly, active intervention in North Korea will undermine the remarkable goodwill toward China, which can be seen among many neighbors as the rising giant.
So, it is more likely that the Chinese will avoid political adventurism and limit themselves to gaining economic advantages in the northern part of the Korean peninsula. At any rate, it seems that the youngsters flowing to the Chinese language departments in North Korean schools and colleges are making a reasonable choice.
Dr Andrei Lankov is a lecturer in the faculty of Asian Studies, China and Korea Center, Australian National University. He graduated from Leningrad State University with a PhD in Far Eastern history and China, with emphasis on Korea, and his thesis focused on factionalism in the Yi Dynasty. He has published books and articles on Korea and North Asia. He is currently on leave, teaching at Kookmin University, Seoul.
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4:52 pm on October 25th, 2008 13
I’d leave the military order of battle to the generals. The less US ground forces used, means the less body bags we have to bring home…however, a scenario would be to use our assets to emplace S. Korean troops on the border with China /Russia, conduct resupply/reinforcement missions, and possibly bombing runs also.
China/Russia would have to be given a strong message/demonstration that we will/would not tolerate their interference in KOREAN affairs, and that U.S. forces would only be there until the situation was stabilized, as we have been an ally of S. Korea and in S. Korea for just a few years.
The question would then become…does S. Korea have enough salt to toe the line in the face of Chinese/Russian troops attempting to enter N. Korea on some flimsy B/S excuse to assist N. Korea…or, will they start calling their mothers, crying and wanting to come home?
Yea, putting U.S. ground forces up there will will draw a lot of flak, but ANYTHING we do/did in the event of hostilities/internal collapse will be be seen as interference…so screw them all and we should just do what is good for America for a change, and that would be to first secure the borders with some configuration of forces, make quick work of the actual N. Korean ground forces and then turn the entire affair over to S. Korea once certain goals have been met.
We should then depart the Korean peninsula for good and never look back at one of the bigger fiasco’s in our history.
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4:54 pm on October 25th, 2008 14
Rob:
Interesting article. This seems to be China’s ploy throughout the world…most notably Africa.
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6:35 pm on October 25th, 2008 15
Rob, The article you quote is hard to refute. However, do not underestimate the guile of the south koreans in making a sweet deal with the north if given half a chance. Kaesong already provides 10s of millions to the coffers of the north, not so much less than China provides, and is capable of growing massivly if given the green light from the north. While it is understandible that the North Korean leadership would like to maintain the status quo even when China foots the bill, there will come a point where open borders with the south become more appealing. I believe the desire for a unified Korea will eventually overcome any advances China may make. China can only stand in the way of unification and as such will eventually lose favor.
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6:55 pm on October 25th, 2008 16
Calm Seas, The American people do not want a war with China or Russia over North Korea. It would not be quick work invading through the mountains of the north with Chinese soldiers pouring over the borders into North Korea. Risking open war with China or Russia. (Especially a Chinese ground war). It would be bloody as hell. The American people will no longer support an invasion, by US troops, into North Korea, that will involve massive US casualties in support of a regional conflict not involving American interests. You and Douglass MacArthur would have gotten along well.
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8:19 pm on October 25th, 2008 17
Agree that invasion would be hard through passes, which actualy makes a blocking force that much simplier by controlling key choke points.
Agree that American people would/should not tolerate an invasion of N. Korea, thus the reason I put forward the need to get it over quickly & withdraw completely (even from Korea completely) once certain milestones have been met.
I do hope that my ego is not as big as Macarthur’s…he was an idiot in a lot of ways.
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1:02 am on October 26th, 2008 18
America should not go to war over North Korea. Let the Chinese have her. China is a very beautiful country and very friendly to tourists. North Korea can be too.
China and America should be good friends and should not let the Koreans stop that. Korea should be part of greater China again. A Korea SAR. Special Administrative region.
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4:19 pm on October 26th, 2008 19
ChimChim:
Nothing like a little Pro-Chinese propaganda to advocate taking control over a country that has it’s own desires for destiny…back to the re-education camp you go…
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10:40 pm on October 26th, 2008 20
CHIMCHIM, LoL, yes every one has been told by the Chinese again and again that they are the most wonderful peaceful people ever to inhabit the earth. Its only rumor that Mao was responsible for more deaths than Stalin, upwards of 60 million I believe. But who am I to argue, since China is a beautiful country and very friendly to tourists. Perhaps we should all just hold hands and sing “Kumbaya”.
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10:49 pm on October 26th, 2008 21
CALMSEAS, Read “The Coldest winter” by David Halberstam. Its a fairly recent book discribing in detail many of the actors, decisions and battles of the first two years of the Korean war. The Politics of the time can make for tedious reading, but, the battles and commanders as well as personal accounts of what it was like make for riviting reading. Then come back and tell me about holding them at choke points.
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7:37 pm on October 27th, 2008 22
Gerry:
While I appreciate history & it’s attempt to teach us to NOT repeat the same mistakes…I would fast-forward from the 1950s’ and recall what a few SF teams accomplished with the help of some CCT operators utilizing air asstets, guerrilla forces and modern day real-time intelligence, in Afghanistan…too bad the politicans got involved and re-directed our efforts to Iraq, which we will eventually just walk away from…and still have to deal with the mess in Afghanistan.
These Force-multipliers would/could, accomplish what thousands of troops on the ground, usually cannot, and that is to defeat an enemy using his own strengths against him & exploiting his weaknesses.
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5:29 pm on October 28th, 2008 23
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10:40 am on October 29th, 2008 24
[...] appears USFK is taking what RAND Corp. scholar Dr. Bruce Bennett had to say seriously considering the current announcement that USFK wants to develop joint contingency plans [...]