By It appears USFK is taking what RAND Corp. scholar Dr. Bruce Bennett had to say seriously considering the current announcement that USFK wants to develop joint contingency plans with South Korea in case of a North Korean regime collapse:
The United States has proposed setting up a detailed action plan in case of the collapse of the North Korean regime under Kim Jong-il, a move Seoul once rejected out of fear that it would provoke Pyongyang.
Yonhap News reported that the proposal came at a recent meeting between the heads of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of South Korea and the United States, known as the Military Committee Meeting (MCM), quoting anonymous sources.
The two allies tried to come up with a similar plan several years ago, but only ended up agreeing on a conceptual plan, known as Contingency Plan 5029, as Seoul expressed concern that U.S. involvement in such an event could infringe upon its sovereignty.
“The U.S. side proposed the countries develop CONPLAN 5029 into an operational plan at the MCM,” the source was quoted as saying. The annual meeting of military chiefs was held in Washington on Oct. 16.
The U.S. proposal was then reported to the countries’ top defense officials, South Korean Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee and U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, during their annual ministerial talks, known as the Security Consultative Meeting, in Washington the following day, according to the source. [Korea Times via Robert Koehler]
CONPLAN 5029 last came up back in 2006 and the then South Korean Roh Moo-hyun government did not want to do any real planning for fear of angering North Korea. The South Korean reluctance to plan for the internal collapse of North Korea, something that is more likely to happen then a second Korean War, should be looked at as ideology compromising the national security of the nation. A collapse of North Korea with no contingency plan between South Korea and the US would make the occupation planning before Operation Iraqi Freedom look like the second coming of the Marshall Plan. So both sides compromised and came up with a plan that really didn’t plan for much of anything other then securing weapons of mass destruction and the handling of refugees if the regime collapsed.
Who will provide basic services for the people of North Korea?
Stopping nuclear weapons dissemination and the exodus of refugees is extremely important, but as the U.S. military’s experience in Iraq has taught us, providing for security, the rule of law, and government
services immediately after a conflict is also essential. Who will stop the inevitable looting that will begin after a regime collapse? Who will prevent North Koreans from taking revenge against regime security forces and others who had oppressed them? The Koreans rely on government food rations. If the regime collapses, who will provide food for the country’s 23 million citizens? Several infectious diseases—scarlet fever, measles, typhoid, paratyphoid, and typhus—are reportedly spreading inside North Korea now. Who will enforce quarantines and treat the sick? Who will establish law and order in a country filled with small arms and explosives? Who will stand up a government that the citizens of North Korea will accept after a collapse?
These are just a few of the questions that need answers with any operational plan being constructed to deal with a North Korean regime collapse.
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak
Now with a new South Korean president in place US Defense Secretary Gates is pushing again for better contingency planning if the North Korean regime should collapse:
Gates reportedly said that the U.S. is ready to supply fighting power necessary for South Korea to implement such an operational plan.
It was the first time since the Lee Myung-bak administration took office that the top U.S. military leader has stressed the need to make the plan practicable and pledged support.
Seoul apparently agrees but feels it should tread carefully for fear of upsetting North Korean and some parts of South Korean society. [Chosun Ilbo]
Considering North Korea just threatened to turn Seoul into “debris”, I don’t you can anger them anymore then that. Also I don’t think that creating an Operational Plan in case of a North Korean collapse will cause massive street protests like the mad cow issue, but you can be sure the usual suspects will be out protesting, which is nothing new. So I think this planning will get some traction in the coming months.
US Defense Secretary Robert Gates
However, something that concerns me is Secretary Gates statement saying the US will, “supply fighting power” for South Korea to implement such a plan. Does that mean Secretary Gates advocates for US troops moving into North Korea if the regime collapses?
I have long maintained that no US troops should move into North Korea if the regime collapsed, which has put my views at odds with people I respect such as John Bolton and Nicholas Eberstadt.
I have said this repeatedly, but I will say it yet again, if US forces moved into North Korea if the regime collapsed, that would be an excuse for the Chinese to move in. The Chinese want to keep the North Korean buffer state along their border and will not willingly go along and give it up if they can help it. That is why I have always believed that if the ROK Army was prepared to execute an immediate occupation of North Korea if the regime collapsed, China would then have a harder time legitimizing any invasion of North Korea with their own forces if the ROK Army is already moving in to stabilize the situation.
Chinese People’s Liberation Army stands ready to intervene in North Korea
US forces moving into North Korea would only legitimize any Chinese action into North Korea plus cause a host of other issues such as causing the North Korean population to question the legitimacy of the South Korean government. North Koreans have been brought up since the day they were born on anti-US propaganda saying the South Koreans are just puppets of the Americans and any US occupation force into North Korea would only confirm this in the minds of North Koreans. It will be imperative after any regime collapse to establish the legitimacy of the South Korean government with the people of North Korea and any US or Chinese intervention force will greatly compromise this.
Any occupation of North Korea will not be easy even with detailed planning. The 60 years of indoctrination has brainwashed the population against the outside world and left the country with a shattered economy. However, detailed planning in the event of a North Korean regime collapse will at least contain an extremely dangerous situation from turning into an international crisis and a possible stand off between the United States and China.
6:32 pm on October 29th, 2008 1
There should be no “US” planning. It should be more of “if north Korea collapses” heres what you can expect from us. 1. We will not move ground forces into North Korea, until invited by those firmly in control of North Korea. 2. We will provide air superiority and air to ground attacks if necessary for protection, to aide any South Koreans going into North Korea. 3. We will resupply and support both military and humanitarian missions in North Korea. 4. The rest is up to South Korea as to what they wish to do.
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7:46 pm on October 29th, 2008 2
Gerry:
Agree with most of what you are saying…and Yes, politically it would be wise to have S. korea ASK for our assistance in the matter, but truth be told…if it is not in the “Offical joint U.S.-S. Korea plan” for the extensive use of U.S. forces, then it had better be in our own back pocket.
Me thinks everybody is putting way too much “Trust & Confidence” in the ability & will of the S. Korean government, military & people. They have shown that if it is not in the best interest of their wallet, then little can be counted on with the Koreans.
In addition, (didn’t we just have this discussion) I think those that are counting on China to stay in their yard of their own free will are only fooling themselves. China has & will take advantage of a future Internal downfall of N. korea, probably before anybody else even gets word that it is happening, due to their presence there already.
Just as the planners thought Iraqis would be lining the streets of Baghdad welcoming us with open arms, any who think outside influences will just standby & allow S. korea to come to the aid of N.Korea and eventual reunification, w/o interferring and trying for a land grab under whatever pretense, are only singing Kumbaya in the rain.
Watch for an extensive SOF push waaay up North and the utilization extensively of Korean forces to put that Kimchi face on the cover…however, the heavy hauling will possibly be done…once again, by U.S. forces. IMHO…
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8:34 pm on October 29th, 2008 3
South Korea is not little brother and we are big brother who must do thier thinking and fighting for them. There is no interest for the US in “Taking” North Korea. It is a Korean issue. If South Korea wants a unified Korea, let them go for it. If they want the US to do it for them, let them deal with the new Chinese government of North Korea. The US has no stake in the outcome. We do not need to be involved. US special forces are just that, “special forces”, not Army scouts, forward air controllers, or a blocking force. They do intell, special hunter killer missions, and on a larger scale can take an airstrip. They recruit and train indigenous troops to fight guerilla warfare. Understand the difference. While they are very good at what they do, they are not super heros from a video game. The “heavy hauling” needs to be done by the South Koreans, and only if they really want to. That is the issue they need to understand.
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10:27 pm on October 29th, 2008 4
Damn Gerry:
Got a little angst going on there?
It is not about the family relationship here…the U.S. has vested interest in the situation, for whatever their reasons that I am not even trying to figure out, due to their dismal track record.
Notice that I said “SOF” forces…NOT SF…
I think that I am more than qualified to still know what the capabilities are of my bretheren are. The missions you listed are off-track/inconclusive & out-dated…period.
Units/missions do evolve.
The courses of action that I have outlined in my posts are right up the alley of the “Current” mission profiles of our SOF forces…who would “Accompany” S. korean forces “as Advisors” of course…into a turbulent N. Korea to ensure that their territory remained intact.
As for the “Heavy Lifting,” I still question S. Korea’s resolve.
I would still ask the question…”Are the current ROK forces up to the task of taking/securing N. Korea in the event of an internal collapse?”
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3:34 am on October 30th, 2008 5
Funny as this may be, is there any role for the UN? After all, a South Korean is in charge of the UN.
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9:56 am on October 30th, 2008 6
The UN was here in the 1950s…look at the mess it left…
The UN would only complicate things and more than likely, leave the entire Korean population with the short end of the stick…but in reality…YES, they will more than likely b running around somewhere.
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11:32 am on October 30th, 2008 7
Calmseas, Lol, No angst, just naturaly grumpy. Always ready to say what I believe is right. And you are correct, my opinions are based on history, not current data. So I will defer to your currency in the military issues. However the political ramifications of US troops entering into North Korea, as well as South Koreas interest doing anything should the north collapse, are open to debate. The takeover of North Korea by the Chinese may be unfavorable to South Korea, However it is not in the interests of the US to act in place of the South Koreans, both politically or militarily. If the South Koreans are not willing to do what needs to be done, it is not in the best interests of the US to step in and do it for them. North Korea is not worth it, and the US would open itself to condemnation from both North and south, as well as around the world. Not to mention the blood that would be spilled in large quantities should the Chinese oppose the US invasion. US SOF are not the answer either, there would not be enough to make a significant difference other than a political statement that the US is involved on the ground with the South Koreans. Those issues are neither off track, inconclusive, nor outdated
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11:39 am on October 30th, 2008 8
The UN “could ” play a major role when humanitarian assistance is needed should the north become open enough to receive aide. Large quantities of food and agricultural assistance would help in reducing the number of refuges fleeing across the southern border. If the Chinese gain control, I would be surprized if they asked for UN help. But thats possible as well.
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8:39 pm on October 30th, 2008 9
“…just naturaly grumpy”
Thats what my wife always complains about me…I just don’t understand…
Another very important point to be made here is:
“Several infectious diseases—scarlet fever, measles, typhoid, paratyphoid, and typhus—are reportedly spreading inside North Korea now.”
Just think, with the mass exodus of refugees being un-checked, this could lead to a pandemic.
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8:09 am on November 21st, 2008 10
[...] The Chinese have been taking North Korean regime collapse seriously for years and in recent months signs have been mounting that the US is finally taking North Korean regime collapse seriosly as well. So serious in fact [...]
3:46 pm on December 26th, 2008 11
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[...] so catastrophic that deeming the scenario “unpredictable” has been the preferred solution. (RAND’s Bruce Bennett, Paul Stares at CFR, and Michael O’Hanlon at Brookings have done some good work on this topic. [...]