By I can’t say I am surprised by this news, China has always taken North Korean regime collapse seriously:
The land border between the two countries was closed at the beginning of last month, immediately after the Mass Games celebration of North Korea’s 60th anniversary.
Chinese tourists trying to visit North Korea have had to fly direct to Pyongyang from Beijing or Shenyang, and no tourists have been permitted from the three provinces neighbouring North Korea in case they are exiled former citizens.
There are now reports that all transport links between China and North Korea will be cut on December 10 as the rogue state becomes even more secretive. On Wednesday, North Korea announced it would close its border with South Korea on December 1.
China’s relations with North Korea have long been characterised as being “as close as lips and teeth” after they fought side-by-side during the 1950-53 Korean War. However, China has been building a fence along the border since 2006, when North Korea tested a nuclear device.
In addition, US officials told the Financial Times that the Chinese military has boosted troop numbers along the border amid concerns about the health of Kim Jong-il, the North Korean leader.
The United States and Japan are drawing up contingency plans in the event of Kim’s demise, but Beijing has refused to discuss the scenario.
Kim is believed to have suffered a stroke and was operated on by Chinese doctors in August. Critics have questioned the veracity of photographs of Kim that have been released since, saying they appear to be doctored.
Sources in Dandong were unable to confirm if troop numbers had risen recently, but said there had been an increase two years ago and that at least 150,000 People’s Liberation Army troops are at the border.
Meanwhile, South Korea said it was disappointed by North Korea’s decision to close the border and said the country was trying to escalate the situation in order to improve its bargaining position.
“If we consider North Korea’s clear negotiation pattern, its strategy has always been to create a crisis before resolving something, and trying to use that point to secure further concessions,” said Yu Myung-hwan, the foreign minister. [The Telegraph]
Think about it, there are just about as many Chinese troops stationed on the North Korean border as they are US soldiers stationed in Iraq. It doesn’t take a genius to realize these soldiers are not there to monitor a fence line, they are stationed there to occupy North Korea if necessary if the regime was to collapse.
With China taking the threat of North Korean regime collapse seriously, the real question will the South Koreans take regime collapse seriously as well?
7:01 pm on November 14th, 2008 1
This is the first I’ve heard of the northern border being closed. It makes the threat to close the southern border more interesting. Is this the tourism and visitor trade being cut off or the food and material trains that run regularly between North Korea and China. Big difference and very significant if it includes the commerce of North Korea. I’d like to know more.
Reply
7:35 pm on November 14th, 2008 2
Remember our discussion about US/ROK plans, or lack of them, in case N. Korea implodes?
Looks like China is getting a jump on the gun…literally…
Reply
8:55 pm on November 14th, 2008 3
I’d still like more information. The article is nonspecific about what is happening at the northern border and why. It makes a huge difference in how the South Koreans should act. It actually does the opposite for China. While China is increasing its border forces, it appears North Korea has shut off the open lines of ‘what?(commerce)(need much more info)’. That move could rule out China as being a benefactor in taking over North Korea, if it is a complete closure. It would in effect put China and South Korea in the same situation of closed borders. South Korea would definately gain politically as being the other half of a divided korea should a collapse take place. China would be left out in the cold, with no reason to step in. China would have to invade without provocation, which I don’t believe they would do.
Reply
11:29 pm on November 14th, 2008 4
[...] This adds fuel to the paranoia fire [...]
12:18 am on November 15th, 2008 5
There is a lot of classified “chatter” about China stepping in. When that happens, the US will let it happen.
Reply
12:53 am on November 15th, 2008 6
“the US will let it happen.”
Ditto…the DoS, who is responsible for situations like this, will just put their head in the sand like the situation doesn’t even exist.
Reply
4:59 am on November 15th, 2008 7
The “spooks” I have been talking to have told me that China has an army waiting to roll in and it could happen is as little as one month. But you didn’t hear that from me.
Reply
7:36 am on November 15th, 2008 8
Gerry,
NK cannot completely cut off trade links with China because it would be regime suicide if they did. They receive the vast majority of their oil from China as well as have a number of trade and mineral deals signed with the Chinese that brings in money to the regime.
It appears to me anyway that this border closing is effecting tourism and smaller scale trade between the two countries.
Any Chinese military action into NK would be a last resort option. They will do everything possible to keep the Kim regime going. These 150,000 troops are simply there as an insurance policy that if the regime was to collapse despite the Chinese’s best efforts they can still move in and stabilize the situation before they have a massive refugee crisis spilling across their border as well as ensuring they maintain their NK buffer state.
The Chinese could legitimize the action as a peacekeeping operation similar to the US launching its operation into Haiti back in the 90’s to prevent a refugee crisis from happening there.
The Chinese would have a harder time legitimizing such an action if the ROK had plans for a speedy occupation of NK to stabilize the country and prevent a refugee crisis. If the Chinese move in at the same time the ROK is moving into NK to stabilize the situation then such an action would look like a Chinese land grab instead.
The Chinese would be condemned internationally for such an action. They key is to ensure no US troops are moving into NK as well because the Chinese could better defend their actions if a US force is moving into NK. That is part of the rationale of why I have always been against using US troops to occupy NK with in case of regime collapse. This should be a South Korean operation with US logistic and diplomatic support.
Reply
8:02 am on November 15th, 2008 9
GI Korea, What you say makes sense to me, and I agree. The article was not very clear either as to ‘who’ was closing the border. China or North Korea. Altho it seems to indicate North Korea closed the border, it could just as well have been China due to smuggling, corruption, drugs, etc. Any ideas?
Reply
8:05 am on November 15th, 2008 10
North Korea will probably follow in the footsteps of Tibet and Inner Mongolia.
Reply
September 28th, 2009 at 1:59 am
DREAM ON, CHI.COM
Reply
9:40 am on November 15th, 2008 11
Yes Greg yes. It is very good news. I am looking forward to it. When those docs pass my desk, I make sure and pass the word that NK and China are one and the same.
Reply
12:55 pm on November 15th, 2008 12
I see another “Tibet” in the making…based on some claim that Korea is actually a long, lost province of China…since when evr worried about “World Condemnation?”
Reply
12:57 pm on November 15th, 2008 13
Correction…since when has China ever worried about “World Condemnation?”
Reply
6:35 am on November 16th, 2008 14
If NK does collapse it may be better for China to take control than for S. Korea. With the current world economic situation S. Korea may not have the funds to go into N. Korea. The economic drain on China may slow their ability to develop their military, resulting in a more stable balance of power in Asia which aids the US. Of course, I believe the two Koreas (N & S) should become one nation, but I have to be realistic and consider the facts as we see them today.
Reply
8:18 pm on November 16th, 2008 15
PETE, if North Korea does collapse it is very important for South Korea to take control or at least a major attempt to take control militarily. As a unified country, historically, geographically, militarily, and nationaly. The budget will never be in better shape, even during the current downturn. Failure to do so would be tantamount to abandoning North Korea to a future Chinese territory and a change of the world maps of both China and Korea. Now if South Korea doesn’t care I don’t either. We can remove our troops so much sooner.
Reply
9:51 pm on November 16th, 2008 16
When you say Japan and US are planning for a collapse, does that mean that if the ROK does send troops into the North then it would US and Japan providing logistical and diplomatic support?
Also, what does the Japan/US plan offer if the ROK does not move into the North? And would Japanese involvement in such a plan with the US deter ROK from acting? Is the UN planning for such a collapse?
Reply
6:29 am on November 17th, 2008 17
I think SK would like to take over NK in the event of a demise; however, without the US they could not stand up to China. Technically, I guess we are still at war and China is an ally of NK. It would be one thing if NK invaded SK and US troops were killed. The American public may support a war at that point. However, with BO becomming president and the dems in control, and the American public being fed up with Iraq, I just don’t believe we have the will to challenge China over a country (NK) that most Americans can’t find on a map.
I hope I am wrong.
Reply
10:08 am on November 17th, 2008 18
I believe the entire issue with China has to do with any US involvement in a military reunification of Korea. As long as US troops are not involved, China has no reason to interfere. Therefore South Korea can and should do whatever is needed when the time comes to reunify the north with the south. South Korea is more than capable militarily and economically of doing so by itself.
That is not to say the US, UN, and the rest of the world cannot provide humanitarian or financial aid.
Yes, technically the two halfs of Korea are still at war. And yes, China is an allie of North Korea, so is Russia. But the US, and the UN are allies of South Korea. The two Koreas are free to reunify and the allies will not join in the fight as long as there is a status quo. Neither Russia or China want a war with the US, nor us with them.
I suspect many Koreans couldn’t find Oklahoma on a map of the world either. (about the same size)
Reply
5:57 pm on November 17th, 2008 19
So the Chinese presence at the border will only be reactionary to US advancement?
Reply
7:54 pm on November 17th, 2008 20
Negatory #19.
The Dragon is already at N. Korea’s door and the US, if anything, is pulling “Half” of the attack helos OUT of S. Korea.
As I have stated previously…China does not need ANY provocation to do anything…their plans have been in effect for decades, if not longer, and the assembling of 150,000 troops on N. Korea’s border is just a part of it.
Is their anyone else out there who thinks that China has in-depth knowledge of the internal instability currently going on in N. Korea and is reacting in anticipation of an internal implosion, in order to beat S. Korea to the punch by making some ridiculous claim that it is only “Humanitarian Aid?”…i.e. very Long Term Aid, that is…
Reply
8:24 pm on November 17th, 2008 21
The Chinese troops are there in case of NK regime collapse. That is why the ROK needs to be prepared to immediately occupy NK in order to prevent China from using a humanitarian intervention excuse. If the ROK immediately moves in and prevents a refugee crisis then any Chinese intervention would be exposed as a land grab. Plans of no US troops in NK may moderate Chinese behavior which sees a strategic interest in keeping buffer states around their border. Comment sent via Kindle.
Reply
8:27 pm on November 17th, 2008 22
THE CLAM, yes I think so. CALMSEAS, I believe South Korea has valuable intellegence in the North Korean Hierarchy as well. But as you state China may be better positioned and have inside contacts and relationships that the south does not. That is far from them currently being sleeping together. The premise of “humanitarian aid” or similar ruses would not hold much water unless invited by North Korea. Even if the country was collapsing. To unilaterally enter North Korea militarily uninvited is possible, but would be a very big risk and be seen by the world as an invasion on the part of China. South Korea would have the moral highground and the US and UN would be free to act.
Reply
10:14 pm on November 18th, 2008 23
I am only posting this as an example of China’s callousness.
As was earlier stated…China could care less about world condemnation…
http://mouthtosource.net/rivers/mekong/2008/11/14/chinese-dams-accused-of-flooding-the-region/
Chinese Dams Accused of Flooding the Region
Reply
September 28th, 2009 at 2:02 am
WE KNOW, CHINESE HAVE ALWAYS PLAYED DIRTY.
Reply
10:34 pm on November 18th, 2008 24
CALMSEAS, I read the report of China releasing water after a major earthquake. Causing an estimated 2.5 million dollars in damage. While each country condemned China for doing so, each country had plans for building their own dams as well. The majority of speakers (at the conference) said each should use less electricity. Now that was a ‘brilliant’ solution. Its a good thing it wasn’t about food. I doubt the issue would apply to an invasion of North Korea.
Reply
12:35 am on November 19th, 2008 25
I believe now would be an optimal time for a North Korean collapse and immediate reunification with the South. Given the present world-wide recession (possible depression), the South Korean economy is tanking and requires a massive fiscal stimulus plan; rebuilding North Korean infrastructure post-reunification would be just what the doctor ordered — a kind of T’ongil New Deal. Ideally , the IMF and other world economic bodies would provide loans in support; China, the US, Japan and Russia should also do whatever they can in order to fascilate such measures.
If not now, when?
Reply
6:52 am on November 19th, 2008 26
That’s a great point, but I wonder if South Korea would use that same reasoning to decide that this would be the worst time for such an action.
Reply
7:17 pm on November 19th, 2008 27
http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Asia/Story/STIStory_303309.html
China’s right to build carrier?
Reply
September 28th, 2009 at 2:21 am
DON’T WORRY, CHINA IS WAY BEHIND OTHER NATIONS AS FAR AS TECHNOLOGY, AND QUALITY. IF THEY MANAGE TO BUILD ONE WITHIN 3 YEARS, IT WILL SINK WITHIN A YEAR DUE TO MALFUNCTION, AND NEGLIGENCE. THEIR OVERLY CONCERNS OVER HAVING IT SOONER THAN LATER. I HOPE, NONE OF THE CREWS ARE ON BOARD, WHEN THAT HAPPENS, THAT WOULD BE TRAGIC. THEIR MILITARY CAPABILITY IS BORROWED, BOUGHT TECHNOLOGY FROM U.S. AND RUSSIA, I MAY EVEN VENTURE OUT TO SAY SOUTH KOREAN SHIP BUILDING TECHNOLOGY, THAT HAS BEEN PIRATED. CHINA WANTS WORLD DOMINANCE AND CONTROL. WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO “PEACEFUL RISE”? I WISH FOR WORLD PEACE.
Reply
September 28th, 2009 at 4:53 am
Better learn to speak Chinese linda.
Reply
8:04 am on November 21st, 2008 28
[...] reports are coming out about Chinese troop increases along the North Korean [...]
8:42 pm on November 21st, 2008 29
[...] armed with pics and hopefully my life, which could be on the cards considering news reports like this! [...]
12:29 pm on November 24th, 2008 30
[...] You combine this report with the prior reports of trade on the Chinese and North Korean border coming to a stand still due to the current global economic crisis and it becomes pretty clear the North is desperate for [...]
9:21 pm on December 14th, 2008 31
[...] Kung Fu Panda writes: Morocco, See Chinese Station 150,000 Troops on the North Korean Border… “The land border between the two countries was closed at the beginning of last month, [...]