By I couldn’t remember my password here at ROK Drop’s blog and I just thought of trying to have it reset then changing it today – which I should have thought of right away – and anyway – now I can post this:
— I wanted to do a type of Open Thread — where the main content is in the Comments section -
- because I know some readers here will have some expertise or experience with knowledge about the topic than I do – which is basically none beyond a few news articles here and there and gut instinct. The thread is open, of course, to everybody, though I am just hoping to rope in some comments from people with familiarity with the region or counter-insurgency/anti-terrorism/international policy type knowledge.
The issue is the one in the post title:
Given what recently happened in India – what do you guys think is likely to happen there? Especially, what do you think should or can be done?
I’d like to hear ideas focused on a hypothetical universe – where things are possible – and also focused on the real world.
For myself, I can’t really imagine we will escape the status quo – or that India will escape the status quo. It is somewhat like my fatalistic (real world) view of the North Korea situation.
My thoughts in a nutshell – the reason nations like Iran want nukes is – it gives them freedom to maneuver.
Pakistan just maneuvered. It probably wanted to point out to the world, especially the US, “Hey, jackass, I can maneuver. What the explicative are you going to do about it?”
The only answer I’ve seen the world offer to date, at least in my life-time, is “Nothing much.”
What do you guys think on the subject?
5:00 pm on December 5th, 2008 1
I haven’t followed the Mumbai attacks so closely but I have a question. You say, ‘Pakistan just manoeuvred’ – Are you talking about the attacks or some diplomatic action afterward?
I am going to use a half-remembered American event to compare, only because I (dimly) recall it, I am honestly not US bashing: I seem to remember the US asked it’s citizens to not support Israeli settlers in the, uh, occupied areas. Disregarding the request, some Americans did send funds and support to Israelis in those areas.
I think they shouldn’t have done that but I understand entirely that they had the right to do so, even against the wishes of their government.
The Americans weren’t terrorists but they did things their government was publicly against. I see the same thing with the Mumbai attacks; The terrorists were Pakistani but not official.
Still, your question is a good one. Individuals can commit actions that could drag their countries to war, even as the countries themselves try for peace. Do we need more intelligence services and police? Pessimistically, I see governments trying to rein in their citizens destroying domestic freedoms and not reducing tensions. Individuals will carry out political action, violent or otherwise, and drag their governments in after them.
Optimistically, … … Uh… This will not help the most dangerous cases but reducing poverty on a global scale, reducing the have/have-not gap, might stop a few attacks.
That is, if people attack one another for financial reasons. I think most attack for other reasons, chiefly religious, especially the organizers. If the followers had economically better lives, would they be less violent?
I hope I haven’t rambled too much.
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6:57 pm on December 5th, 2008 2
The news indicates the US and Indian governments seem to have good reason to believe an arm of the Pakistani government (the intelligence agencies and so on) significantly helped the attacks to take place.
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7:08 pm on December 5th, 2008 3
#1: Our government DOES NOT have that much say-so against us…case-in-point is Cuba travel. As for Israel…they receive the BIGGEST aid packages from the US and the biggest donations from the American people.
The future for Paki-Indie relations? Bleak, if anything.
I have always predicted that the first REAL Nuclear war will begin here, due to both countries being zealots in their respective religions. If Israel bombs Iran, then look for an increased level of threats/hostilities also between Paki/Indie (opportunistic???).
Here is a link to an article I read today: http://foxforum.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/12/04/wphares_mumbai/
Some highlights:
“urban jihad”…taking the fight into the cities, which is the hardest type of war to fight.
“–- using the words of the jihadists –- the goals have mutated and now extend beyond the classical ethnic conflict in Kashmir. The aim is now to establish a Taliban state covering half of India, all of Pakistan and also Afghanistan. It is more the Caliphate then self-determination that the terrorists seek.”…similar to the Super-Islamic state that Muslims want in SE Asia, with Malaysia-Indonesia-Philippines, etc.
“From New York and Washington to Madrid and London; from Beslan and Baghdad to Islamabad and Bali, the seekers of a Taliban-like “Caliphate” continue to adapt their tactics and while staying the course. No civilization or continent has escaped their designs.”…Europe is infested & under seige…America is bending over backwards to accomodate them. They are willing to DIE and KILL you to reach their goals, but we are NOT willing to do what it takes to DEFEAT Muslims…and I do mean ALL Muslims.
“…the Mumbai model is now a frame of reference for copycats.”…we have seen this Copycat syndrome before and the outcome has already been written.
If you have been following terrorism for a few years, you can relate to these predictions and compare their TTPs to past incidents.
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7:57 pm on December 5th, 2008 4
Is anybody here an “expert” in this region? By which I means simply having studied it or its issues or experience in country/region?
If so, if you comment, let us know at least a tidbit about that background….
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9:02 pm on December 5th, 2008 5
UNSINKOREA (#2) – thanks for correcting me.
I am no expert, but I had a youthful enthusiasm for the area from reading lots of Kipling. I (stupidly) visited Kashmir in 1991 – no active problems for me but I frequently heard gunfire at night.
I agree with Calmseas that the future for Pakistan and India looks bleak.
Is there any place that had a high population, was divided arbitrarily by outside powers and does not have a history of conflict? I don’t know how Ireland was/is divided but I am thinking of Israel and India/Pakistan/Bangladesh in particular. Germany and France have had a quiet border for sixty odd years after only 1000 years of strife.
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7:45 pm on December 9th, 2008 6
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1228728114280&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
“…that we should have no mercy when it comes to terrorism and the ideology behind it,”
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3:24 am on December 10th, 2008 7
I am in Afghanistan right now and the sh!t that happened in India has a big blow back here as well. The Pakistani government will take more of the money we give them to fight terror and put it in to fighting India. The World doesn’t know this but over 1/2 of the money we give for security goes to the wrong border, the India side of Pakistan. Just more jacked up shiiittt to deal with while the Anti Coalition Forces and Taliban travel unchecked beck and forth. Insanity!
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2:12 am on January 4th, 2009 8
There are 5 houses in five different colors
In each house lives a different nationality.
These 5 owners drink a certain beverage, smoke a certain brand of cigar and keep a certain pet.
No owners have the same pet, smoke the same brand of cigar, or drink the same beverage.
The CLUES:
The Brit lives in the Red house.
The Swede keeps dogs as pets.
The Dane Drinks tea.
The Green House is on the left of the White House.
The Green House’s owner drinks coffee.
The person who smokes Pall Mall rears birds.
The owner of the yellow house smokes Dunhill.
The man in the center house drinks milk.
The Norwegian lives in the first house.
The man who smokes Blends lives next to the one who keeps cats
The man who keeps horses lives next to the man who smokes Dunhill.
The man who smokes Blue Master drinks beer.
The German smokes Prince.
The Norwegian lives next to the Blue House.
The man who smokes Blends has a neighbor who drinks water.
The QUESTION:
Who owns the fish?
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2:22 am on January 4th, 2009 9
the fish is owned by the German
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3:28 pm on April 24th, 2009 10
Just wanted to say hi since I’m new here!
‘m happy to become a member of this community!!!
Hoping for the the best
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6:30 pm on May 13th, 2009 11
Just wanted to introduce myself, been a lurker on here for a while. Are there any subjects that we can’t talk about on here?
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10:32 pm on June 14th, 2009 12
I feel I might introduce my self here. My name is Kate, I’m a newbie here, someone told me that i might find some good information here so… basically that’s why I’m here, and for any good advice i might get also… hope to have good time here
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2:34 am on July 8th, 2009 13
Well, I think there are at least two movies deserving this title. These are Terminator 4 and Transformers 2. What do you think?
P.S. To moderators: sorry for possible writing to a wrong category but I didn’t find any other category for general chat.
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10:06 am on July 20th, 2009 14
tks for the effort you put in here I appreciate it!
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7:40 am on August 17th, 2009 15
America claims to be a ‘free country’, even a beggar in India has more rights than anyone in America, and the airports are just one glaring example of the lack of basic rights in America, while they loudly and constantly advertise ‘Free Country’. It should have already raised everyone’s suspicions, why does America constantly have to advertise ‘freedom’ ? It is because every fundamental freedom in America has been sabotaged and cancelled. Shah Rukh episode is tip of American iceberg. Read this challenging article in http://deshkidarti.com . Find out how India compares to America. We are much more free than them.
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8:18 am on October 14th, 2009 16
Hello!
I’m fairly new to this forum and just wanted to introduce myself and say “hello”.
Finally a solid community with colors that I can stare at all day – which is good to look at!
I am here to learn and get involved in the community. How would I best get involved?
Cheers…
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