By Richard Halloran has now offered two options on why the Obama administration responded the way it did to the North Korean missile test:
Before the missile launch, President Obama and leaders of other powerful nations warned North Korea not to do it. Afterward, the president asserted that North Korea “must be punished,” and was echoed in Tokyo, Seoul, Western Europe and the United Nations. By weekend, however, little but nattering was seeping out of the U.N., the White House and foreign offices around the globe.
Moreover, the Obama administration through the Pentagon imposed a news blackout despite having erected an elaborate system of missile tracking radars, computers, and communications in Japan, the Aleutians, Alaska, Hawai’i and California, U.S. and Japanese warships at sea, and satellites above the Pacific Ocean. That cost the taxpayers $56 billion over the past seven years. (…….)
In the North Korean case, rather than inform the citizens the Pentagon is paid to defend, it withheld information evidently for one or both of two reasons:
1) Political: The Obama administration, having decided there would be no response or retaliation for the defiant missile shot, calculated that it would be best to divert public attention by ignoring it.
2) Technical: Something went wrong in tracking the North Korean missile in this first realistic test of missile defense; other tests have been staged. Rather than admit failure, the Pentagon ducked. [Honolulu Advertiser]
Halloran needs to read the ROK Drop because I already answered this question for him right after the conclusion of the test.
9:03 pm on April 14th, 2009 1
Umm howabout this..
3) We're just not going to humor him anymore and try to make this a non-issue. Ignore him and he'll just stamp his feet in vain.
5:17 am on April 15th, 2009 2
I think it is a given that one of the reasons Obama wanted to keep the issue small was that his administration knew that the launch would bring pressure to bear on his desire to kill missile defense. The higher the attention to the missile launch, the more his position on MD looks suicidal. — Which probably also influenced why the US did not shoot the missile down and didn't want Japan to.
I'm sure this wasn't the only reason, but I'm sure it was part of it.
Next, on the idea of ignoring the launch as a way to defuse Pyongyang's ability to play brinkmanship — ignore it and it will go away — I think this is dead wrong.
First, if Pyongyang wants to get world attention, it will get it. Even Obama largely ignoring the launch made NK stamp its feet, it would quickly sit down to thing of what would work to achieve the objective of grabbing America's attention, and then they'd do it.
Second, and I think this is the more important point, the US ignoring the launch is only effective if it convinces others it means nothing…
….but what NK and other rogue players are likely to take away from America's seeming indifference, especially after we went to the UN on the issue only to be rebuffed by China and Russia, ……is that the US is weak and that they can get away with more.
Obama would have to convince them too that the missile launch meant nothing, and I don't see how it could do that:
People were watching to see how the US would react, and a basic non-reaction is not going to be interpreted as willful indifference.
9:39 am on April 15th, 2009 3
NK thrives on having the worlds attention. Whenever ANYTHING takes that attention away, they do something crazy and act like children. Its how their getting so much aid money from other countries.
With these guys, you MUST ignore them, or they'll just keep playing you for more money. NK pose's very little in the way of a threat. They have no real economy, and using any sort of military action is a quick way to ensure their country doesn't exist.
11:39 am on April 15th, 2009 4
North Korea is a huge threat. It is pitifully weak, but it has enough military hardware to kill a lot of people in SK and Japan quickly.
The reason why the US (and others) don't just get rid of the problem by taking the NK out is — the likelihood it would take a lot of people out with it.
On ignoring their provocations, the point is that if the North wants to gain attention, it will:
Are you going to ignore it the next time it blows up an airliner? Or blows up some South Korean or US or Japanese delegation somewhere?
It hasn't resorted to that type of violence in a long time, because it was getting enough play out of less extreme forms of brinkmanship. But if it wants our attention, it will do whatever it takes to get it.
And ignoring the missile launch also encourages NK to think it can get away with more.
5:26 pm on April 16th, 2009 5
Ohh noes, not the NK terrorist threat…….. please.
NK won't actually attack anyone, they would loose, and loose badly. Their military is a joke, its in shambles. They simple don't have the money to afford modern equipment, just raw man power. And unfortunately (for NK) the ROK military is MUCH better equipped / trained, mostly due to the US. Any form of ground war would end with NK's defeat, or did some of your forget we practice this twice a year.
Their ONLY serious threat is that Seoul is in artillery range, they could cause a lot of havoc and damage in the first few hours. Cause that's all the time they would have until those launch sites are destroyed (we already know where their at). Afterwords its back to ground tactics, which are a loosing battle when your opponent is the defender and has sea/air superiority. Not to mention the "closeness" works both ways, their close enough for our short to medium range weapons to take out targets. Specifically C2 and whatever infrastructure they have.
Nobody wants the death toll that would result from that kind of exchange, this is why we placate him and hope he dies off soon enough. Heck in all honestly his own generals wouldn't let me condemn his entire regime to the history books. No don't even debate this, the response to an offensive from NK is regime removal, and the chances of success are 100%. Its merely a matter of time and the atrocious cost of lives (both north and south).
This isn't a bunch of random terrorists, its a set government. And as evil as it may be, it's own sense of self preservation will prevent it from doing something too stupid. He'll just keep saber rattling and trying to milk money from other countries.