By It appears North Korea is making preparations to play their biggest trump card:
South Korean officials have detected “brisk” activity at a North Korean nuclear test site, a South Korean newspaper reported Thursday, citing an unidentified South Korean government official. Last week, the North said it would carry out a second nuclear test and test launch intercontinental ballistic missiles unless the United Nations Security Council apologized for criticizing the country’s April 5 rocket launching. The South Korean newspaper, Chosun Ilbo, reported that the authorities in Seoul were monitoring the movements of personnel and vehicles at a nuclear site in the northeastern county of Kilju, where the North conducted its first nuclear test in 2006. The paper quoted an unidentified South Korean government official as saying that the North was believed to be preparing to conduct a nuclear test soon. The paper did not say how South Korea obtained the intelligence. Officials at the Defense Ministry, Foreign Ministry and the National Intelligence Service said they could not confirm the report. [New York Times]
I wonder if the 2nd nuclear test will be scheduled to occur on an American holiday such as the 4th July? Remember in 2006 the North Koreans launched their missile test extravaganza on the 4th of July. If Kim Jong-il is looking for the maximum media attention on his 2nd nuclear test it would appear that the 4th of July holiday would be his best bet.
4:39 pm on May 8th, 2009 1
Testing another nuke was pretty much a given due to how the last turned out. The same with the earlier failed ICBM test a few years ago.
I wonder if NK fully realizes the meaning behind the non-response to its building a secret nuclear reactor in Syria?
The North wasn’t doing that as a provocation to test the waters or gain concessions, but once the site became public knowledge, when Israel blew it up, it became a much bigger provocation than any ICBM or nuke test, and NK should have taken away many lessons from it.
…None of them good for the outside world…
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9:34 pm on May 8th, 2009 2
NK is really going overboard in its attempts to gain world attention, or maybe only that of the US. Increased training along the border, bogus satellite launches, restarting nuclear facilities, and now threats of a new nuclear test. All within six months or so. Curious as to whats next.
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4:58 pm on May 9th, 2009 3
I thought when they tested a nuke very soon after testing an ICBM last time – it meant the regime was afraid it would collapse in the short term future. The US had just imposed banking sanctions that everyone was willing to apply – even China – and it was clear those sanctions would strike at the heart of one of the regime’s primary life-lines. So, I went out on a limb to say the regime would collapse within the next two years.
That didn’t happen. I still liked my reasoning, but how was I to know the Bush administration was going to flipflop after holding out so long and just having found a great pressure point to use?
These latest provocations haven’t had me thinking about collapse:
They could be chalked up to testing the new administration and pressuring the one in SK too.
I didn’t figure that the North was suffering as much as it was before Bush’s flipflop. I think Bush reversed the banking sanctions. He also restarted material support as part of AF 2.0. I figured China had also felt more free to help. SK was the only nation not providing the kind of help it had before, but could it be withholding enough to put the regime in jeopardy?
I didn’t think so…
…..but this new post here about what the NK defectors are saying makes me wonder….
The North is using up all its big cards to play in rapid order. That isn’t like the North. They are usually good at milking things and not looking desperate.
If there has been a significant upswing in the number of officials fleeing the state —- I’d have to start looking at this provocations in a different light — seeing them less as tests for Obama and more as possible signs of fear of collapse….
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