Comments on: Reports that North Korea is Preparing for 2nd Nuclear Test http://rokdrop.com/2009/05/08/reports-that-north-korea-is-preparing-for-2nd-nuclear-test/ Korea From North to South Sat, 26 May 2012 12:06:22 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: USinKorea http://rokdrop.com/2009/05/08/reports-that-north-korea-is-preparing-for-2nd-nuclear-test/comment-page-1/#comment-321496 USinKorea Sat, 09 May 2009 22:58:07 +0000 http://rokdrop.com/?p=13091#comment-321496 I thought when they tested a nuke very soon after testing an ICBM last time - it meant the regime was afraid it would collapse in the short term future. The US had just imposed banking sanctions that everyone was willing to apply - even China - and it was clear those sanctions would strike at the heart of one of the regime's primary life-lines. So, I went out on a limb to say the regime would collapse within the next two years. That didn't happen. I still liked my reasoning, but how was I to know the Bush administration was going to flipflop after holding out so long and just having found a great pressure point to use? These latest provocations haven't had me thinking about collapse: They could be chalked up to testing the new administration and pressuring the one in SK too. I didn't figure that the North was suffering as much as it was before Bush's flipflop. I think Bush reversed the banking sanctions. He also restarted material support as part of AF 2.0. I figured China had also felt more free to help. SK was the only nation not providing the kind of help it had before, but could it be withholding enough to put the regime in jeopardy? I didn't think so... .....but this new post here about what the NK defectors are saying makes me wonder.... The North is using up all its big cards to play in rapid order. That isn't like the North. They are usually good at milking things and not looking desperate. If there has been a significant upswing in the number of officials fleeing the state ---- I'd have to start looking at this provocations in a different light -- seeing them less as tests for Obama and more as possible signs of fear of collapse.... I thought when they tested a nuke very soon after testing an ICBM last time – it meant the regime was afraid it would collapse in the short term future. The US had just imposed banking sanctions that everyone was willing to apply – even China – and it was clear those sanctions would strike at the heart of one of the regime’s primary life-lines. So, I went out on a limb to say the regime would collapse within the next two years.

That didn’t happen. I still liked my reasoning, but how was I to know the Bush administration was going to flipflop after holding out so long and just having found a great pressure point to use?

These latest provocations haven’t had me thinking about collapse:

They could be chalked up to testing the new administration and pressuring the one in SK too.

I didn’t figure that the North was suffering as much as it was before Bush’s flipflop. I think Bush reversed the banking sanctions. He also restarted material support as part of AF 2.0. I figured China had also felt more free to help. SK was the only nation not providing the kind of help it had before, but could it be withholding enough to put the regime in jeopardy?

I didn’t think so…

…..but this new post here about what the NK defectors are saying makes me wonder….

The North is using up all its big cards to play in rapid order. That isn’t like the North. They are usually good at milking things and not looking desperate.

If there has been a significant upswing in the number of officials fleeing the state —- I’d have to start looking at this provocations in a different light — seeing them less as tests for Obama and more as possible signs of fear of collapse….

]]> By: gerry http://rokdrop.com/2009/05/08/reports-that-north-korea-is-preparing-for-2nd-nuclear-test/comment-page-1/#comment-321094 gerry Fri, 08 May 2009 21:34:08 +0000 http://rokdrop.com/?p=13091#comment-321094 NK is really going overboard in its attempts to gain world attention, or maybe only that of the US. Increased training along the border, bogus satellite launches, restarting nuclear facilities, and now threats of a new nuclear test. All within six months or so. Curious as to whats next. NK is really going overboard in its attempts to gain world attention, or maybe only that of the US. Increased training along the border, bogus satellite launches, restarting nuclear facilities, and now threats of a new nuclear test. All within six months or so. Curious as to whats next.

]]> By: USinKorea http://rokdrop.com/2009/05/08/reports-that-north-korea-is-preparing-for-2nd-nuclear-test/comment-page-1/#comment-320990 USinKorea Fri, 08 May 2009 16:39:59 +0000 http://rokdrop.com/?p=13091#comment-320990 Testing another nuke was pretty much a given due to how the last turned out. The same with the earlier failed ICBM test a few years ago. I wonder if NK fully realizes the meaning behind the non-response to its building a secret nuclear reactor in Syria? The North wasn't doing that as a provocation to test the waters or gain concessions, but once the site became public knowledge, when Israel blew it up, it became a much bigger provocation than any ICBM or nuke test, and NK should have taken away many lessons from it. ...None of them good for the outside world... Testing another nuke was pretty much a given due to how the last turned out. The same with the earlier failed ICBM test a few years ago.

I wonder if NK fully realizes the meaning behind the non-response to its building a secret nuclear reactor in Syria?

The North wasn't doing that as a provocation to test the waters or gain concessions, but once the site became public knowledge, when Israel blew it up, it became a much bigger provocation than any ICBM or nuke test, and NK should have taken away many lessons from it.

…None of them good for the outside world…

]]>