By Here is all the more reason why I have been saying for quite sometime that the US should not deploy American soldiers into North Korea if the regime collapses:
According to the report, Shen Dingli of the Institute for International Studies at Fudan University has told observers that policymakers in the PRC prefer a buffer in North Korea between South Korea and the U.S. forces there.
Dingli also said that rather than let North Korea collapse, China will provide basic subsistence.
The report also quoted China’s defense minister and high-ranking military officials as saying that “China will not let North Korea collapse.”
The reported also noted that Beijing has been the donor of last resort that kept North Korea in food and fuel through famine and energy crises for decades.
“In official statements, books and state-controlled media, the Chinese leadership provides support for the DPRK and takes no position advocating regime change,” the report said.
“Even in China’s closed forums, there is almost a taboo on discussing “regime change” in North Korea.”
Given that China has a formal commitment in its bilateral security treaty with North Korea that it “must observe” in the event of a conflict on the Korean peninsula, any military action against the North would inevitably face Chinese intervention, according to the report. [Korea Herald via Extra! Korea]
If the US moves into North Korea that would give the Chinese the green light to move in as well. That is why it is critical that South Korea quickly deploys it’s forces throughout North Korea and implement martial law and immediately begin humanitarian assistance to exert a sense of authority. North Koreans have been brought up since the day they were born to hate the United States and if the ROK Army is seen working side by side with the United States in North Korea this may give many North Koreans the impression that the South Koreans are the puppets of the United States.
It is critical that the South Koreans have to be viewed early on as the legitimate occupiers of North Korea by the North Korean population. Everything done in the early days of a collapse has to be viewed in the context of building the legitimacy of the South Korean government in the eyes of the North Korean population.
US forces moving into North Korea would only legitimize any Chinese action into North Korea plus cause a host of issues that can be avoided with a ROK military led occupation of a collapsed North Korea.
1:56 pm on May 18th, 2009 1
Nice idea, but wrong. Don't forget North Korea and South Korea are still technically at war. Any crossing of the border by the south( should the north show signs of collapsing) could be considered an act of war by both North Korea or even China. China has the upper hand in case the North should collapse. South Korea could not just barge in as the norths savior, that has been why China has remained for so long as the Norths friendly neighbor. To do so would risk war with China with little moral authority.
3:21 pm on May 18th, 2009 2
If the North Korean government collapses the South Koreans would be the ones with moral authority not the Chinese since the South Koreans would be considered the legitimate government of a unified Korean peninsula. It is still in the ROK constitution that they are the legitimate government of the entire peninsula.
The Chinese would have no moral authority by moving in if the South Koreans are prepared to do so. If the Chinese moved in it would clearly be a land grab. That is why it is imperative that the ROK Army is prepared to move in after any regime collapse. There is little chance the Chinese would wage war with the ROK Army if there are no US troops in North Korea.
3:50 pm on May 22nd, 2009 3
[...] plans should there be a North Korean collapse. His commentary is well worth reading as he makes an excellent point regarding the use of American forces to occupy and stabilize the North. GI Korea believes that an [...]
5:10 pm on June 9th, 2009 4
[...] “GI Korea” schrijft op ROK Drop dat de Verenigde Staten om die reden niet in moet grijpen wanneer de Noord-Koreaanse dictatuur [...]
4:47 pm on January 20th, 2011 5
Wishful thinking.
4:59 pm on January 20th, 2011 6
ROK Army will not enter North Korea without US approval because US has War-time control over ROK Army's military command.
Since US has War-time control over ROK Army command, US is literally in the driver seat when she drives across the DMZ towards Pyongyang in the event of a collapse.
China is more likely to intervene to prop up the NK Regime to stop Nuclear weapons from getting out of hands because an unstable NK is a terrorist paradise.
If China intervenes in the event of NK collapse to prop up the government and prevent nukes from getting into the wrong hands, the world will accept it. It wouldn't be a land grab,.
5:02 pm on January 20th, 2011 7
China will intervene to protect North Korea's nukes from getting into the wrong hands.
For the safety of the world.
God forbid if Al-Qaeda was able to get their hands on a nuclear weapon during NK collapse.
5:06 pm on January 20th, 2011 8
#7
What wrong hands? South Korea?