By In what could be described as the least unexpected provocation yet by North Korea, they have made good on their multiple threats to conduct a 2nd nuclear test:
North Korea delivered on its threat Monday, conducting a second nuclear test that angered governments around the globe.
The North had threatened to do so unless the U.N. Security Council apologized for imposing sanctions on it following a rocket test on April 5.
The secretive communist state also apparently test-fired a short-range missile on Monday, the White House said. (……….)
North Korea announced its underground nuclear test a little more than an hour after the U.S. Geological Survey reported a magnitude 4.7 seismic disturbance at the site of North Korea’s first nuclear test.
There was no immediate information on the yield of the weapon used in Monday’s test. The Russian Defense Ministry said the explosion was between 10 to 20 kilotons. The U.S. State Department said it was analyzing the data.
The North’s state-run Korean Central News Agency would say only that the latest test was safely conducted “on a new higher level in terms of its explosive power and technology of its control.”
U.S. intelligence estimated that the first North Korean test — in October 2006 — produced an explosion equal to less than 1,000 tons of TNT. The low yield was a fraction of the size of the bombs the United States dropped on Japan at the end of World War II. [CNN]
I almost predicted this test to the day because I figured that they would wait for a US national holiday to conduct their test. I figured though that they would wait until the 4th of July to conduct their test since that is a bigger national holiday in the US than Memorial Day.
No matter what you think about John Bolton he sure did call this one with his editorial this week warning the Obama administration to prepare for a 2nd North Korean nuclear test. So why are the North Koreans conducting their test now? Bolton’s reasoning makes perfect sense:
A second nuclear test is by no means simply a propaganda ploy. Most experts believe that the 2006 test was flawed, producing an explosive yield well below even what the North’s scientists had predicted. The scientific and military imperatives for a second test have been strong for over two years, and the potential data, experience and other advantages of further testing would be tremendous.
What the North has lacked thus far is the political opportunity to test without fatally jeopardizing its access to the six-party talks and the legitimacy they provide. Despite the State Department’s seemingly unbreakable second-term hold over President Bush, another test after 2006 just might have ended the talks.
So far, the North faces no such threat from the Obama administration. Despite Pyongyang’s aggression, Mr. Bosworth has reiterated that the U.S. is “committed to dialogue” and is “obviously interested in returning to a negotiating table as soon as we can.” This is precisely what the North wants: America in a conciliatory mode, eager to bargain, just as Mr. Bush was after the 2006 test. [Wall Street Journal]
The North Koreans have been raising tensions for months now in order to justify conducting their 2nd nuclear test because they needed to do this test to work out technical issues from their first test. The 2006 nuclear test was less than 1 kiloton so this bast of 20 kilotons is a big improvement for them. So now that they have conducted their test and got the technical information they need to further improve their nuclear weapons, they are counting on the Obama administration to come begging Pyongyang to talk things over with them again.
Expect Pyongyang to use the two detained American reporters as political cover for the Obama administration to start talks with them again. Once negotiations start then the North Koreans can begin getting their free goodies from the US again in exchange for false promises to disarm. The Obama administration already has the bribe money allocated. Why not it has worked every time in the past for them? Does anyone expect Barack Obama to be different? Kim Jong-il sure isn’t.
Anyway here is the initial reaction from the White House:
The White House — which less than three weeks ago announced a new diplomatic effort to restart stalled talks with North Korea about its nuclear program — said the test was in “blatant defiance” of the Security Council.
“North Korea is directly and recklessly challenging the international community,” the White House said. “The danger posed by North Korea’s threatening activities warrants action by the international community.” [CNN]
Is this the same international community that did nothing after last months missile test that the White House is counting on to do something now?
Here is what the Korean Blue House had to say:
The government has issued a statement condemning North Korea for its second nuclear test. In it, the government called the test a serious challenge to peace on the Korean Peninsula, Northeast Asia and the rest of the world.
Following an emergency meeting of the National Security Council led by President Lee Myung-bak, presidential spokesman Lee Dong-kwan told a news conference that Monday’s nuclear test undermined the 1991 Joint Declaration of the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, as well as agreements made under the six-party framework.
The spokesman said the North’s move clearly violates United Nations Security Council Resolution 1718, which bans all nuclear tests by North Korea. [KBS Global]
It looks like the Lee government is also drinking the United Nations Kool-Aid too, but I don’t expect the South Koreans to begin giving Kim Jong-il hand outs in response though. President Lee has been very adamant about reciprocity from North Korea in regards to aid.
By the way does anyone ever get tired of seeing the Hans Brix approach every time the North Koreans act up?
Fortunately there are better options out there that have worked in the past, but the people that surround President Obama do not prefer such approaches and instead favor Hans Brix diplomacy.
What is especially sad about all of this is that even in death former South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun is being screwed by the North Koreans. Roh after his suicide was getting some favorable media treatment and now has been kicked out of the headlines by the North Koreans he worked so hard to appease. Lets hope President Obama doesn’t go the appeasement route either because in the end he will get conned by the North Koreans as well, just like Roh did.
You can read more on this over at the Marmot’s Hole and One Free Korea.
2:34 am on May 25th, 2009 1
Good call on the prediction.
Unfortunately looking at the Korean news and forums right now, this event is getting very mixed recognition. The front page of Naver.com (Korean) is dedicated to the Roh memorial, with only a single line about the test. It's basically a fan page. The Chosun Ilbo has stories on both their English and Korean sites, but Roh is still a large part of their home page. I don't think Roh will get pushed out of the news anytime soon by NK. (Maybe they'll be a mad cow protest or something that can do it).
More odd is the reaction on forums. On the American ajumma site missyusa.com some commenters are blaming Lee Myung-bak for somehow orchestrating the NK test to take the focus away from Roh. I guess logic and politics don't often intersect.
3:22 am on May 25th, 2009 2
Maybe… just maybe… South Korea is ENCOURAGING North Korea's nuclear development.
Think about it.
The only disadvantage is the very unlikely possibility of a North Korean nuclear attack on South Korea.
The advantages? Too long to list.
Some highlights are…
…more power to the government, a focal point to herd the cats away domestic issues, keeping Korea relevant on the world stage, pestering Japan, pestering China, keeping USFK feeling useful, getting free stuff from the USA to assist in the situation…
…and the big one…
…after reunification, South Korea gets to be a nuclear power without the hassle of becoming a nuclear power! Woo hoo!
Sure, they will "destroy" the nukes… but, as everything from the Youngsan move to reduced tariffs on imported goods has shown, Koreans are world-class stallers.
It will take decades to study and formulate a plan… followed by decades more of funding negotiation… followed by engineered demonstrations and manufactured logistical delays.
By the time they actually get around to destroying them, the uranium will have decayed into lead and they will wind up on haraboji's trash cart to be recycled into batteries for hybrid Hyundais.
3:52 am on May 25th, 2009 3
@Chickenhead, that's an interesting take on the matter. However, I think what you've laid out isn't that advantageous for the south.
1.) "More power to the government, a focal point to herd the cats away domestic issues". SK's government as a whole is already quite powerful. We've seen it become less explicitly powerful in the past 20 years or so, but I don't think anyone wishes a return to the old days.
More importantly, NK is not a focal point for South Koreans and its hard to see it ever becoming one. Having talked to many Koreans on the issue and being an outsider with hopefully an objective standpoint, it seems to me that most South Koreans really just don't care. They are tired of talking about North Korea and don't want to even think about it. I don't think nuclear weapons will change anything, and the proof is in what we are going through right now. There will be no big reaction to this just as there was no big reaction to the first test. Nuclear weapons in the north just aren't as interesting as Mad Cow, Japan, or Jesus.
2.) Keeping Korea relevant on the world stage. This is certainly an advantage, but I don't think its one the SK government is particularly happy about. I'm sure they'd like another reason for being popular!
3.) Pestering Japan. If – and i don't think this is true – Korea thought Japan was a threat in any sector but the economy, then having a dangerous northern neighbor would only make Japan a bigger threat as it armed itself with countermeasures to what a unpredictable NK might become. Witness the focus on the SDF becoming less 'D'.
4.) Keeping the USFK feeling useful. I don't know the details about the real interests of the US gov't, but having read this blog for a while my impression is that the US doesn't really want there to be much of a USFK anyway, and its the SK gov't (not the people) that really want it to stay. Am I wrong on that? I don't see how maintaining a feeling of usefullness helps any unless they care about morale so much.
5.) Getting free stuff from the USA. Agreed, that would be one advantage.
6.) After reunification, South Korea gets to be a nuclear power. Um, I'm not sure SK is interested in the 1940's-era technology NK has developed, and unification is probably the scariest scenario the south can dream up right now. The impact – social and economic – of unification would truly be devastating and the recovery process intense. Further I'm not entirely sure there ever will be a reunification in our lifetimes. We'll see though. Nobody knows the future.
There are probably a few more disadvantages to having a nuclear NK then you've outlined:
a.) NK could fire against some other state other than SK (Unlikely). This would likely result in foreign intervention in NK. Would the SK govn't be happy with that?
b.) NK could become further isolated from the international community, and therefore aid, leaving a heavier burden on the SK government to supply them.
c.) NK could become a larger supplier to other countries of nuclear material, technology, and/or weapons. I doubt there it much weight to this though – there are probably better places to get any of it.
And there are other advantages, depending on the SK intention. For example, if the goal of SK is for a DPRK collapse, having them focus on a nuclear program might be a great waste of resources and expedite their fall.
4:20 am on May 25th, 2009 4
A lot of people say the situation with NK is so difficult but it seems to be so simple. Kim Jong Il is a gangster who takes advantage of the fact that the US will NOT fight another land war in Asia. There's just too goddamn many asians over there and if we fight another land war we'll just end up slaughtering millions of innocent people. Not good.
Therefore, KJI can and will do whatever he wants to get his way. NOBODY has the guts to stand up to him. SK does not help at all, they'd rather stick to their brothers and sisters in NK than side with the US, who has made them a top 10 economic power in the world. What thanks does the US get? NOTHING.
Here's my King of the Day solution. Give SK an ultimatum. No more Sunshine Policy crap. Either they reunify by force (The U.S. will give all the military support they need but not ONE American soldier will cross into NK) or the US is out of there. And lets face it if the US really did leave there's no way SK would fall under communism, they've got 48 Million SK citizens that won't accept that. Damn the US wastes their time with a bunch of ungrateful, backstabbing, and totally corrupt Asian politicians. Just absolutely a waste of time.
4:25 am on May 25th, 2009 5
allegsu,
Hmmmm…
Well… so much for my crappy theory.
4:33 am on May 25th, 2009 6
Okay, Obama is talking a lot of smack. I don't think he can or will do anything about the North Koreans but how can he back down after talking so resolutely?
4:45 am on May 25th, 2009 7
Obama should send Rev. Wright over to Pyongyang to school Kim Jong-pill right quick.
6:39 am on May 25th, 2009 8
In 2006 they tested on Columbus Day…
7:14 am on May 25th, 2009 9
The problem I see with a tougher approach is that the regional powers have zero interest in the collapse of north Korea. Not the Chinese who cannot tolerate the idea of a strong and potentially hostile in the north, not the south Koreans who will have to deal with the massive cost of reunification, not Japan who no interest whatsoever in the reunification of Japan, not the Americans who certainly don't want to take any risk.
So sanctions are all well and good, but sanctions that actually threaten the survival of the regime don't seem to be a good idea.
10:04 am on May 25th, 2009 10
He is going to get more nukes and keep them; there is nothing the world is really willing to do about it, period. And he knows it.
I just love that Team America clip, GI.
11:05 am on May 25th, 2009 11
“The U.N. Security Council swiftly condemned North Korea's nuclear test on Monday as ‘a clear violation’ of a 2006 resolution banning them and said it will start work immediately on a new one that could result in stronger measures against the reclusive nation.” (AP News)
Yeah, I’m sure the Dear Leader is just trembling at the words of the United Nations. When he got this news, he probably was watching one of his female entertainment performances and just grinned.
12:36 pm on May 25th, 2009 12
These countries need to put their money where their mouth is. CUT OFF ALL AID, period. Oil, rice, everything. End the Kaesong project, shutter it. Stop all tourism. Let them eat uranium. Starting now. It will be ugly but obviously nK has resources to squander instead of taking care of the citizenry. Let China feed them. We are enabling this stupidity. Let's see how self reliance really works.
1:03 pm on May 25th, 2009 13
Leon; It'll never happen. See OFK's "Plan B." That also won't happen, but it's a nice blueprint.
1:39 pm on May 25th, 2009 14
I recommend you read the Plan B link above I posted above. Economic sanctions prior to 2006 were working until Bush gave into the North Koreans after the first nuclear test. The Plan B expands on those sanctions.
The Chinese of course can off set those sanctions but at least they are subsidizing North Korea with their money instead of our money. How long do you think the Chinese will want to keep that arrangement going before they start making modifications in North Korean behavior?
2:59 pm on May 25th, 2009 15
I used to think that The Onion was the best satire on the web, but this site has completely changed my mind. The ironic/sarcastic tone really hits the spot, keep it up. Although it is worrying that a few people on the comments pages seem to be taking it seriously.
8:00 pm on May 25th, 2009 16
Ain't tired of the movie clip yet, and the recurring events just keep it all the more pertinent…
3:43 am on May 26th, 2009 17
[...] direct their policy to a certain extent in the future. Other bloggers have written about it here, here, and here. My internet access is very sporadic right now, so I’m a little iffy on the details [...]