That is what Ahn Byeong Jik, an Honorary Professor at Seoul National University and Chairman of independent South Korean think tank The Zeitgeist believes:

Chairman Ahn was speaking at a seminar sponsored by the Research Institute for New Korea entitled “The Past, present and future of the policy towards North Korea” on Wednesday, June 3rd.

According to Ahn’s analysis, “North Korea under the Kim regime faces a situation where simply maintaining the economic cycle is impossible. Internal conditions which will inevitably cause collapse are piled all around North Korea.”

He listed the disastrous conditions: collapse of the economic system; collapse of the financial and bureaucratic systems; paralysis in the reigning system; paralysis of social infrastructure; and widespread contraction of production.

“North Korea’s planned economic system has fallen, but a market economic system has not been established to take its place. Without any functioning economic system, the national economy is just drifting,” he continued, adding, “The most obvious signs are consecutive famines and prolonged reliance on foreign aid.”

He explained further, “The ultimate fate of both capitalist and socialist states depends on how the national finances are managed, but in North Korea the finances are managed on an arbitrary basis.”  [Daily NK via Gypsy Scholar]

So is North Korea nearing collapse?  The important thing to remember about North Korea is that just by its very organization it is perpetually on the verge of collapse, but yet continues to get by because of its brinkmanship and geo-strategic location.

Robert Kaplan provides the best look at how regime collapse will look with seven identifiable steps:

1. Depletion of resources.
2. Failure to maintain infrastructure around the country due to resource depletion.
3. Rise of independent fiefs informally controlled by local party apparatchiks or warlords, along with widespread corruption to circumvent a failing central government.
4. Attempted suppression of these fiefs by the regime once it feels that they have become too powerful.
5. Active resistance against the central government.
6. Fracture of the regime.
7. Formation of a new national leadership.

Currently North Korea is in step 3 and sometimes dabbing into step 4 with various anti-corruption campaigns being launched to reign in the various independent fiefs that have sprung up around the country.  So far none of these fiefs have sought active resistance against the regime.  This leads me to believe that conditions within North Korea are not yet to the point that the regime is going collapse in the near term.

However, depending on how well financial sanctions are implemented it could cause the ruling elite to crackdown on the independent fiefs to consolidate money and resources with the ruling regime at the expense of the fiefs.  The ruling regime has shown in the past that it has no problem with allowing those outside the ruling elite to suffer and starve.  Then you add in the ongoing information operations by various defector and human rights groups that are increasingly spreading information within North Korea, this could cause further dissatisfaction with the ruling regime.  It will most likely cause more people to vote with their feet and leave North Korea.  Will it lead to active resistance against the regime?  Right now no because the ruling regime has too many guns for anyone to stand up against.

So yes Ahn Byeong Jik is correct that North Korea is entering regime collapse, however it has been in the process of regime collapse for the past 20 years and this process could on for another 20 years or it could collapse in 2 years.  There is just too many variables that will effect when this will happen.  That is why I think it is wise not to make predictions of the exact day of regime collapse, but rather prepare for it because ultimately it is inevitable.