ROK Drop

By on June 17th, 2009 at 10:18 am

Bruce Klingner Comments On What To Expect from North Korea

» by in: North Korea

I guess great minds think a like   ;-)   because I and other have been saying this for years:

Despite high expectations that North Korea would adopt a moderate policy after the change in U.S. leadership, Pyongyang has refused repeated attempts by the Obama Administration to establish contact. North Korea’s refusal to engage in dialogue with the U.S., South Korea, and Japan even as economic conditions worsen is another indication that Pyongyang is playing a new game.

North Korea will continue additional missile and nuclear activity during 2009– impervious to naïve initiatives such as offering a senior-level presidential envoy for bilateral discussion or changing the number of participants in the nuclear negotiations.

North Korea may eventually be willing to return to negotiations once it has demonstrated a clear nuclear and ICBM capability. If Pyongyang were to return, it would do so with far greater leverage and expectations. The most benign scenario would be for Pyongyang to trade its future nuclear weapons capability–but not its existing weapons inventory–in return for all of the previously discussed economic and diplomatic benefits, though in greater quantities.

It is more likely that North Korea would demand a far greater price for denuclearization.  [Heritage.org]

Make sure to read the rest because Bruce Klingner as usual writes a thoughtful column.

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