By Mark the 4th of July on your calendars because that is when it is likely the North Koreans are going to provide some fireworks:
North Korea may fire a long-range ballistic missile toward Hawaii in early July, a Japanese news report said Thursday, as Russia and China urged the regime to return to international disarmament talks on its rogue nuclear program.
The missile, believed to be a Taepodong-2 with a range of up to 4,000 miles (6,500 kilometers), would be launched from North Korea’s Dongchang-ni site on the northwestern coast, said the Yomiuri daily, Japan’s top-selling newspaper. It cited an analysis by the Japanese Defense Ministry and intelligence gathered by U.S. reconnaissance satellites.
The missile launch could come between July 4 and 8, the paper said.
While the newspaper speculated the Taepodong-2 could fly over Japan and toward Hawaii, it said the missile would not be able to hit Hawaii’s main islands, which are about 4,500 miles (7,200 kilometers) from the Korean peninsula.
A spokesman for the Japanese Defense Ministry declined to comment on the report. South Korea’s Defense Ministry and the National Intelligence Service — the country’s main spy agency — said they could not confirm it.
Tension on the divided Korean peninsula has spiked since the North conducted its second nuclear test on May 25 in defiance of repeated international warnings. The regime declared Saturday it would bolster its nuclear programs and threatened war in protest of U.N. sanctions taken for the nuclear test.
U.S. officials have said the North has been preparing to fire a long-range missile capable of striking the western U.S. In Washington on Tuesday, Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said it would take at least three to five years for North Korea to pose a real threat to the U.S. west coast. [Associated Press]
North Korea has a track history of conducting provocative events on American holidays such as the last nuclear test occurring over the Memorial Day weekend. So it is likely that this next missile test will be on the 4th of July weekend, which is something they did before 2006.
According to the latest reports the Taepodong-2 missile is going to be likely launched from their new Tongchang-ri missile base on the country’s West Coast:
Here is a closer look at the facility courtesy of Google Earth:
There are actually two launch pads under construction at this facility. Here is the first one:
And here is the second one:
The fact there are two launch pads makes me wonder if in the future Kim Jong-il could further raise tensions by firing off two Taepodong’s at the same time?
With this missile test I would expect the North Koreans to try and fix the third stage problem they had with their last missile test back in April. Here is North Korean video of that test:
Here is video of the projected trajectory and break up of the Taepodong-2 missile test this past April:
If they can get that third stage problem fixed the North Koreans could possibly range Hawaii. There is no way they would actually hit Hawaii, but I am willing to be that if they could hit some where near Hawaii in order to show that they can in fact range the islands that is what they would try and do. The Pentagon has repeatedly said that they can shoot down this missile, which I have high confidence can be done. However, the real question is will they be allowed to shoot down the missile politically? I don’t see how any politician doesn’t order this missile shot down if comes any where near Hawaii, but I guess we will see if this fireworks show does in fact happen over the 4th of July holiday.
Further Reading: A Guide to North Korea’s Missiles
11:17 am on June 18th, 2009 1
An interesting option would be for the Americans watch them assemble it on the missile pad, and then obliterate it with a Tomahawk when nearly assembled. It would be the first real show of US backbone vis-a-vis North Korea since the last shot of the Korean war – everything since has been snivelling and crying about more sanctions.
Another possible move I have always thought would be good would be a Tomahawk destroying the captured USS Pueblo currently sitting at riverside in Pyongyang as a daily tour program for North Koreans proving they can do what they want and the US will grumble and do nothing of consequence.
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June 18th, 2009 at 6:53 pm
Hugh,
North Korea will use any armed intervention as an excuse for a lethal response for themselves. They believe that South Korea will say “uncle” far earlier than they will need to. A country that starves off 2 or so million of its people won’t be impressed by a dozen or so deaths, but they will take hundreds if not thousands of South Koreans out to make a point.
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1:21 pm on June 18th, 2009 2
They want to steal Iran’s spotlight.
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3:07 pm on June 18th, 2009 3
Japan should shoot it down if it crosses their territory, and the US should have their back. Maybe the UN could fine them for littering…because it’ll splash in the ocean. Of course if all goes well, Obama will personally take credit for his brilliant tactical response.
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4:53 pm on June 18th, 2009 4
[...] and the fifteen year anniversary of Kim Il Sung’s death. A recent piece at ROK Drop provides excellent comments on N. Korea’s presumed forthcoming missile [...]
4:59 pm on June 18th, 2009 5
Joseph Bermudez wrote a report on this facility which you can download here:
http://www.nkeconwatch.com/nk-uploads/nklaunchpad.pdf
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June 18th, 2009 at 9:16 pm
Thanks for the download link. That was an interesting read.
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12:46 am on June 19th, 2009 6
Kim Jong-il shoots from beyond the 3 point line,…
OH! Blocked by Obama! Get that stuff outta here!
I totally agree with the selection of Independence Day. July 7 is the 15th anniversary of Kim Il Sung’s death. That would be my second choice on the ROK Drop office pool.
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1:13 am on June 19th, 2009 7
If the Chinese don’t put the brakes on the fools in Pyongyang, then it’s time to let them know that the U.S. will gladly let the Japanese have as many nukes as they want. The dunces in Beijing still don’t get it; if they don’t help stop these people, there will be a major war on their border or the Japanese will have to go nuclear.
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2:23 am on June 19th, 2009 8
its kinda of fascinating to see some peoples ideas on what the government should do about this arising situations. while there is still no proof that there is a possiblity of the rockets having the range to touch us soil i still wonder how much politics will have in announcing the new rockets tests results. even if North Korea were to launch a rocket toward US territory would the government shoot it down? my lacking trust to the politicians who run the government says that they will be willing to lose their pawn in order to win the game as it would be in chess. the strategy is to sacrifice a player in order to win the game. which i think the government is willing to do. if the missile comes close with in our territory i don’t think they will shoot it down to give them the justification to call for reaction
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June 19th, 2009 at 7:17 am
North Korea is already ranging US territory. Just the distance of the last missile test that failed at its third stage still covered roughly 2,000-2,300 miles which if you look on Google Earth puts Guam which is US territory and quickly becoming a major military hub as the US down sizes on Okinawa, within range of the North Koreans. If the North Koreans are able to fix the problems with their third stage from the last launch they will most likely be able to range Hawaii.
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7:56 am on June 19th, 2009 9
So perhaps the big question could be “How far do you let the missile go before shooting it down?”
I’m somewhere between Hugh’s response (Tomahawk chop the launch sites on July 2) and Saipan. If Japan doesn’t shoot it down first then the US certainly won’t wait to see how close it gets to Kauai.
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6:30 pm on June 19th, 2009 10
“North Korea will use any armed intervention as an excuse for a lethal response for themselves.”
That may be true. I argue it is also true that the risk may be worth it, that it is time for America to introduce an element of uncertainty into the minds of North Korean leaders as they plan future actions. As it stands now, North Korea – hell, all of us – knew with complete certainty in the days leading up to the missile launch early this month that the American reaction would be a lot of huffing and puffing and oh boy you’re gonna see some sanctions now and here’s a piece of paper with some Security council writing on it behold that and fear eh? and …that would be all. America would do nothing of substance, as it did nothing for the 2nd nuclear blast, as it did nothing for the first one, as it did nothing for the for two US citizens kidnapped and sentenced to 12 years for taking pictures, as it did nothing for the previous Taepodong over Japan, as it did nothing for US soldiers butchered with axes on camera, as it did nothing for an entire US ship seized on the open seas and tortured for a year, as it did nothing as North Korean nearly and literally took the head of American ally and client state leader Park Chunghee, as it does nothing to the American currency being debased by massive NK state counterfeiting. The preceding is truncated; pages of provocations could be added to it.
The rhetorical repetition may be tedious, but the point you all know I am driving at is that North Korean believes it has America figured out – provocation will be met with a muted and ineffectual response of words and financial paper-waving. I’d say an impartial look at the situation shows them right. When they plan future actions, I don’t believe North Korean leaders consider an actual American military response anymore. The proper course of the American leader right now is to dramatically reverse the above pattern set by the last 10 American presidents.
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7:24 pm on June 19th, 2009 11
The current administration is adverse to confrontation. This is why I am curious to see what will become of the shadowing of the North Korean ship off the coast of China. I hate to sound so cynical to all those who are fans of the present U.S. administration; but I have a hunch that a military confrontation or all out war will be more likely started by the United States bungling the situation than any other reason. I still think the best way to deal with this is to threaten the Chinese with Japanese nuclear armament. However, President Obama is out to disarm the world, so that’s not going to fly. The Chinese could cut off the oil and the food any time they want if they felt it was in their best interest. Here’s a thought: What are the chances of those of use living in Seoul making it out of here alive if the dirt bags in Pyongyang decide to bomb Seoul on a moments notice?
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1:01 am on June 24th, 2009 12
none of this is going to happen!!!
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3:22 pm on July 2nd, 2009 13
I live in the state of Hawaii and I think if that missile come even within 1500 miles of our state, blow it out of the sky. I am also for blowing it up before it even leaves N Korea. The fact of the matter is they are threatening and defiant (not to mention crazy). Why wait for them to figure out how to hit the islands or the west coast. It is premeditated and they are attempting to fire the missle. Some one needs to take action against the threat.
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