By I noticed the headline of this Korea Times article about South Korea developing an electromagnetic pulse bomb. I’ve also caught bits and pieces over the last several years about Korea rolling out significant pieces of military hardware developed domestically and also gaining some sizable contracts for them…
…and I’ve wondered as far back as I became intersted in Korea, roughly 1995, —- what is the state of SK’s domestic defense industry? Will it become a player of significance (if it isn’t already)?
From the novice point of view, it always seemed to make sense to me that SK would move in this direction:
1. It has the direct national secutiry need if we count NK alone amongst its enemies. Long term, with China pumping an emphasis on developing its own military industry and upgrading its military with international buying, and with Japan being very rich and an industrial leader (and being afraid of China), it would seem to make developing quality domestic hardware would be a smart thing.
2. They can’t always depend on the US in the future for their defense
3. And they might not want to always pay top dollars for top US hardware if they are going to have to go it fairly alone within the next 20 – 50 years.
4. South Korea rose to power on its manufacturing and then heavy industries. For a long time, it counted on the US completely for its military industrial products so it could concentrate on consumer products for export (like cars) — but as their rapid growth in that has long since peaked —- it would seem natural they might turn their industrial know-how and capacity into producing military hardware.
…if they could find a niche in the global market…
And with the news the last few years, it seems they are trying to find that niche as well as prepare to be more self-sustaining in the future.
My question to those who know more about the military and military industry:
What are South Korea’s chances? How does the stuff they produce now stack up to what mid-level nations buy from other countries? If, by chance, SK’s hardward today isn’t likely to cut a big chunk in the miliary hardware market, how long might it take them to develop products that will (if at all)?
Basically, I’m asking: Since it seems South Korea is making an effort to get far into the military hardware market, what are its chances?
And I don’t mean its chances of competing against top US hardware and the like — I mean what are the chances they can make products that will find a useful market?
2:14 pm on July 7th, 2009 1
I'll show where my thinking is at in part like this: looking back at the big FX Fighter spike in anti-US/USFK activity from 2001…
Now, I could easily be wrong, because it has been since the 1980s that I read much of anything about fighter planes, but I did read a hell of a lot about FX Fighter spike in the Korean news.
The way the Korean media kept putting the F-15 down as a hunk of junk that even the US was getting rid of made me think, "So what? You're flying F-4s and have to face a North Korean Air Force that can't afford jet fuel much less a top of the line, cutting edge hardware it can keep up in the air…"
It seemed ludicrous to me to go along with Korean society's view of comparing the F-15 to the latest US fighter planes.
Comparing the F-15K to the others in competition for the contract was smart, but I so distrusted the Korean press, I couldn't rely on anything it said about how the F-15 stacked up to its competition there…
But I knew Korea didn't need to throw the national budget at buying F-22s even if it could get them…….because at least the F-15 would be good for its security needs and a big step up from what it had…
So, in relation to my post, if South Korea capable of finding a market for its products or ones it is likely to develop in the near future – say 5 to 10 years? How big or small could it be if it really goes heavy into military industrial products?
2:46 pm on July 7th, 2009 2
The little that I have read about SKs military industry have me believing they can find a nich market, similar to South Afrca, and perhaps not as robust as Israel. The little I have read on the subject leads me to believe the SKs have quality products for sale. Turkey (I think) has been a large buyer of SK military products.
2:49 pm on July 7th, 2009 3
Maybe this helps?
http://www.globalfirepower.com/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Korea_Ai…
"South Korea became one of the world's few aircraft exporters when it sold 19 KT-1B trainer aircraft to Indonesia in 2003. Korean Aerospace Industries, the South Korean national aerospace company, has plans to export more KT-1 and T-50 Golden Eagle supersonic trainer aircraft to other countries. In addition, the Ilyushin Il-103 prop-driven trainer has replaced the T-41 in the primary training role."
4:33 pm on July 7th, 2009 4
OK, the South Korean arms industry. It has come a long way since the 70s when it was license producing US arms such as the M167 20mm anti-aircraft gun and the M16A1 rifle.
But still it is very dependent on foreign technology. Let's take the case of the K2 tank. Its main gun is a reverse engineered version of a German 120mm 55 cal gun, and its automatic loader is also a reverse engineered version of a autoloader in the French Leclerc tank. It's engine needless to say is German. The same goes for the T-50. SK wouldn't have been able to produce that trainer if not for technical help from Lockheed Martin.
And this is where I think the Korean defense industry will get stuck. With all the foreign tech inside the weapon systems, the originators of the technology will start asking the Koreans for a slice of the take, which I'm sure the Koreans won't oblige. There is also the question of whether the time will come when Western/Israeli defense companies will smarten up and decide that providing technology as part of an offset agreement to supply a certain weapon system isn't a good idea after all. Which means no new technology, no new Korean weapon system.
So unless SK develops a technology base where it can develop its own technology to go into weapon systems which also stand out from US, European, and Israeli weapon systems, I don't think it will find a useful market for its defense products.
Of course that doesn't mean it will find niche markets such as Turkey and Indonesia.
5:30 pm on July 7th, 2009 5
A lot of good points were made above. I personally think that the technology is there, but the question is whether or not it is profitable. I think the Koreans are able to produce weapon systems of their own given adequate budget, time and research. Yes countries like Israel, USA, and Germany make much of their own hardware, but they have a long history with military technology and knowhow and are exporting their weapons all over the globe. They can afford to research and build their own weapons given the profits. All countries need to start somewhere and Korea is a recent new comer. With their latest hardware such as their new Aegis ships, K-9/10, K-2, and K-21s I think they are going in the right direction and a good start. Someday I think they will gain market share as many acknowledge Korea to be a high tech country. At the moment its just not smart to pour money into an industry where they're not sure if they'll succeed. Right now they're focusing more on their immediate defense needs as they are seeking international interests and I'm sure they'll succeed in seeing substantial market share as they are already exporting K-9/10, K-2 technology to Turkey. Once other countries see their products are on par with other manufacturers the demand will rise and then its only a mater of time. I'm no military expert but I'm just projecting what I know of marketing and economy. Of course my opinion only.
5:04 am on July 8th, 2009 6
I again state up front I know next to nothing about the workings of the military industry and markets — having said that…
Competing for markets is the big question mark for me. Do most countries with enough money to field a military count of buying the best equipment or the best deal they can make to meet their needs and budget?
I know South Korean industry has made headway into the civilian markets in lower-budget countries of the Middle East – including places from North Africa to the -istans (Uzbekistan and so on). They have also gotten large contracts from some of the oil rich nations for things like construction.
I know South Korea has been looking to be a lower-cost but adequate quality supplier of industrial consumer items too – like cars and washing machines and such to Peru and so on.
I just don't know enough about the markets for military systems or what systems Korea makes well enough to guess whether or not they can do the same with their military hardware.
– The idea about proprietary rights by industry leaders on items South Korea reverse engineers isn't something that had dawned on me before.
It also reminded me of the F-15K / FX Fighter Selection fiasco.
If I remember correctly, one of the attack points for the Korean media and people were that the US wasn't going to share some of the newer technology that went into the planes.
I guess a key question for me is — how do the systems South Korea is producing stack up to the Russians? Or in the near future?
I would imagine Russia would be a prime competitor in less expensive, lower quality but still adequate military hardware…
3:40 am on July 9th, 2009 7
The K9/K10 Howitzer/Ammunition Carrier has already been exported to Turkey. The K2 Armour technology has also been exported to Turkey. Both vehicles are top of the line hardware as well as the brand new K21 infantry fighting vehicle. All are said to be comparable or better than US counterparts. Korean companies used to make value a selling point, but the K2 tank is currently the most expensive tank in the world. Sejong the Great Aegis ship is also one of the best in the world. Of course non of them have been battle proven so its hard to say what their real life performances would be like. In terms of civilian capacity, they are the world's 5th automakers, world's leader in shipbuilding (50% of ships being produced in the world are Korean made), their construction companies are capable of building the world's tallest structures such as one of the Petronas towers and the Burj Dubai (tallest in the world when completed soon – being built by Samsung), and of course their electronics such as cell phones and displays dominate the US market. I have no doubt in my mind they are capable of making incredible military hardware. Its just a matter of demand and profitability in my opinion. But once again, I am no expert and learn what I can on the internet.