Noted North Korean scholar and ROK Drop favorite Dr. Andrei Lankov has once again contributed another great report that further shines a light on what is really happening within North Korean society. This time Lankov writes about how the regime is now cracking down on the illegal markets that have sprouted up around the country in the past seven years. Here is a quick look at this report as described by the paper’s executive summary:
This article explains why the North Korean government has attempted to reassert state control over society—which had been eroding from 1994–2002—and offers predictions regarding the impact that this shift will likely have on North Korean society.
Main Argument
From 1994 to 2002 North Korean society changed tremendously: state-run industry collapsed, the rationing system ceased to function, and free-market activity, though still technically illegal or semi-legal, became most citizen’s major source of income. Although not initiated by the government, in 2002 some of these spontaneous changes won the belated and conditional approval of the regime. The evidence emerging in the last three to four years demonstrates, however, that the North Korean government has chosen not to tolerate those changes. This policy of recrudescence, while economically self-destructive, makes political sense because the existence of an affluent and free South Korea makes North Korea far more insecure. The leadership in Pyongyang has reason to believe that any domestic liberal reform in North Korea would lead to a regime collapse. [Asia Policy via the Korean Economic Reader]
Make sure to take the time to sit down and read Dr. Lankov’s latest work. He is one of the few people who can truly be called an expert on North Korea and anything he writes should be given serious attention by anyone serious about better understanding North Korea.
What Dr. Lankov says in this latest paper makes perfect sense from the perspective of the North Korean regime elite who want to remain in power. However, such obvious truths about the North Korean regime still just doesn’t seem to make sense to the peace in our time crowd:
Given the clear benefits of the Vietnamese model, the United States must encourage a gradual development model in North Korea. This approach will require the United States to separate economic issues from the diplomatic issues of nuclear weapons and human rights when dealing with North Korea. Furthermore, any U.S. plan for integrating North Korea into the global economy should involve the following 4 components. [Michelle Burgess - Project on International Peace & Security, The College of William & Mary]
This paper goes on to recommend that South Korea return to the Sunshine Policy and give unconditional aid to the North Koreans no matter how they act. Ms. Burgess’ paper is incredibly badly timed considering Dr. Lankov’s latest research as well as news coming from mainstream media sources such as the Washington Post about the Great Leap Backwards currently going on in North Korea. Even more ill timed is the fact that South Korean President Lee Myung-bak stated earlier this month that Seoul’s Sunshine Policy of unconditional aid actually helped the North Koreans build their nuclear weapons:
South Korea President Lee Myung-bak yesterday took a swipe at the North Korean engagement policies of previous administrations, saying Seoul’s financial aid to Pyongyang must have been spent on the North’s nuclear programs. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
I point out Ms. Burgess’ paper not to ridicule her, but as an example that her belief in that all we have to do is be nice to North Korea and help them open up their economy is a viewed held by many people on the left who believe that this will bring peace in our time on the Korean peninsula. People need to realize that North Korea’s regime elite doesn’t want peace in our time, they need a perpetual state of war that legitmizes the ruling regime in North Korea, which at the same time allows them to extort aid from the international community. This is one of those inconvenient facts, just like the fact North Korea will never give up their nuclear weapons, that all people seriously studying North Korea need to accept. Dr. Lankov has long understood the true nature of the North Korean regime, it is time for everyone else to do so as well.








4:37 pm on July 17th, 2009 1
I am a big fan of Dr. Lankov's work.
If I could turn to one person and one person only for insight on North Korea, it would be him.
He is right, the North Korean regime had no choice but to allow for some of these black market elements to exist because nothing in the country worked and rebellions might just emerge as a result.
However, although they tried to stop the flow of information it has failed and attitudes in North Korea towards South Korea are no longer hostile as it used to be. Of course, the regime does not share this view.
Surprisingly, the Sunshine Policy did have an effect in playing a role in getting things, including ideas, into North Korea which helped change the opinions of many people there. We know it was a fluke because Noh Moo-hyun actually was hoping that Kim Jong-il would come around and be more reasonable. That never happened, but anti-South Korea sentiments in North Korea did manage to subside.
The fact that Kim Jong-il is massively unpopular in North Korea helped the process along.
5:00 am on July 18th, 2009 2
I have been reading your blog frequently for the past few weeks. I enjoy your POV, and am happy that you are pro-American Soldier without being openly biased. I find your writing to be straight-forward, and the topics you highlight are relevant and important.
However, I've been silent about one thing for a while, something that has been bothering me. It trips me up when I read, and I hate going back and reading a simple sentence several times because the lack of this specific punctuation makes it almost incoherent. I can't take it anymore:
Start using hyphens! Here's the first example:
"However, such obvious truths about the North Korean regime still just doesn’t seem to make sense to the peace-in-our-time crowd"
Please.
10:19 am on July 18th, 2009 3
Why would he use quotation marks for that line?