By I can’t say I am not surprised by this Chinese reaction to preparing for any potential North Korean collapse scenarioes:
— U.S. attempts to draw up a broad contingency plan in case North Korea’s government collapses are being complicated by China’s refusal to talk about potential chaos engulfing its dysfunctional neighbor.
Both Washington and Beijing are growing more anxious about the stability of the Korean Peninsula, with Pyongyang’s recent missile and nuclear tests, uncertainty about the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and the apparent designation of his 26-year-old son as successor. There’s much Washington wants to go over with Beijing in a meltdown scenario: securing North Korea’s nuclear weapons, dealing with panicked North Koreans overrunning borders and drawing up ground rules to keep the U.S. and Chinese militaries from clashing as they did in the 1950-53 Korean War.
The U.S. has raised the idea of joint talks in several meetings with senior Chinese officials, most recently during a visit to Beijing last month by U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg, The Associated Press has learned from foreign diplomats and Chinese scholars briefed on the meetings. Chinese officials rejected the overtures, although they pledged to work constructively with the U.S. on North Korea. Both the scholars and the diplomats asked to remain anonymous because of the sensitivity of the issue. (……….)
Without careful planning with China, the U.S. is concerned that both armed forces could be drawn into conflict accidentally or be ill-prepared to handle attacks by North Korea’s army, the world’s fourth largest. The South Korean capital, Seoul, is 40 miles (65 kilometers) from the North Korean border and a tempting target for a dying regime. If North Korea mounts an armed resistance to foreign militaries, a force larger than the U.S. committed to Iraq might be needed, a Council on Foreign Relations study said in January. [Associated Press]
Here is an idea if US planners are concerned about US and Chinese troops confronting each other if the North Korean regime was to collapse, don’t deploy American troops in to North Korea. This is part of reasoning of why I have long advocated that if the North Korean regime was to collapse it should be the ROK Army leading any military intervention into North Korea and not the United States.
Further Reading:
The ROK Army’s Role When North Korea Collapses Without A War With the ROK
3:46 am on August 8th, 2009 1
China has no business going to North Korea anyway, so all they should be concerned about is securing their border.
4:46 am on August 8th, 2009 2
And if the the ROK intervenes, and the Chinese attack them, then…?
I foresee some sort of pre-emptive attack on the Nork's artillery batteries. I don't see how either we or the ROK would allow them to get off the first salvo and pulverize Seoul. Speaking as I do with the benefit of near-perfect ignorance of the people and issues involved, that is…
7:07 am on August 8th, 2009 3
"Here is an idea if US planners are concerned about US and Chinese troops confronting each other if the North Korean regime was to collapse, don’t deploy American troops in to North Korea."
Ok, The Sokos roll North and are fired on by the PLA. Now what? Do we hang them out to dry or do we do what is right?
7:47 am on August 8th, 2009 4
That would be a different situation. If Chinese troops actually attack the South Koreans then the US has an obligation to help defend them. But I agree that if the North Korean regime collapses then it needs to be the South Koreans to be there first and demonstrate leadership in the region. If the US comes along it can provoke the Chinese, even though I hope the Chinese are not stupid enough to claim North Korea.
12:10 pm on August 8th, 2009 5
Huh?
They have commerical interests throughout the country.
In the event of an NK implosion, it would be foolish to NOT assume they cross the border in order to secure their interests and provide a buffer for their border. Given the crappy roads in the North, UNC/CFC/USFK or whaterever the hell we´re calling ourselves when it happens will be in no position to dictate realities that far north anyway.
1:40 pm on August 8th, 2009 6
I believe the number of North Korean artillory that can hit Seoul, (while often listed in the thousands, with no real knowledge), is in actuality significantly less. The only piece of artillory in the North (other than SCUDS, etc) is the 170mm Koc sun with a range of 55 kms. (their 240mm artillory only has a range of 25kms, and MRLSs much less) The listed number of probable hardened sites within 55kms of Seoul from within NK is 17. Disappointing isn't it, for those who believe Seoul will be destroyed in its entirety. (Could be a few more that are hidden, but no where near enough). I would imagine South Korea has most of these "hardened sites" (caves) well targeted from a range of about 10 kms or less. Its going to be tough for the NKs to move the artillory out of the cave to fire when they are being constantly pounded.
4:14 pm on August 8th, 2009 7
The ROK has been preparing for this scenario for years y using digital blitz-tactics warfare simulators (aka Starcraft.)
For transportation, ROK taxi ajushi’s will be transporting the troops to the NK/China border…they’ll be there within minutes and charge ridiculously.
Meanwhile, the South Koreans will be ready at the forefront doing what they do best, protesting…something.
11:08 am on August 9th, 2009 8
Also, North Korea's ancient Russian tanks and jets probably haven't been serviced in years, not that the few they could manage to get moving would get passed the South Korean defenses.
I just don't expect people to get it. The media has been using North Korea to boost its ratings and sales quite a bit in recent months. The truth gets lost in the sensationalism.
12:36 pm on August 9th, 2009 9
You are right. Sensationalism sells. On the other hand political agendas play an important part as well. The truth of the matter is irrelivent.