ROK Drop

By on September 6th, 2009 at 9:51 am

Victor Cha On North Korea’s “Smile Diplomacy”

Victor Cha has a really good interview on the Council on Foreign Relations website that I highly recommend everyone check out.  Here is a quick excerpt:

Victor D. Cha, who served on the National Security Council staff in the Bush administration and was on the team negotiating with North Korea, says UN Security Council sanctions leveled against North Korea after its last nuclear test in May have largely caused Pyongyang to shift to “smile diplomacy, now, as opposed to nuclear diplomacy and ballistic missile diplomacy a few months ago.” He says there are signs that North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-Il, is not as crippled as first reported months ago, but that a transition is in the works with his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, as his likely successor. Cha says some kind of Six-Party Talks will resume, but there will also likely be important bilateral talks between North Korea and the United States.  [Council on Foreign Relations]

Read the interview in its entirety, but I think he is overstating the effect of the UN sanctions.  The UN sanctions have been an annoyance to Kim Jong-il and not what caused the recent “smile diplomacy”.  What North Korea is currently doing is a typical North Korean tactic.  They have a new President so they increase tension in order to extract a better deal than what they got from the last President.  While they are raising tensions they also use the opportunity to further perfect their missile and nuclear programs in order to negotiate with a stronger hand.

Now the North Koreans are happy with the hand they currently possess and are ready to deal.  The only question is on who’s terms will the negotiations be on?  The US wants six party talks while the North Koreans want bilateral talks with the US in order to sideline the other countries involved to create tension between the US, South Korea, and Japan.  I believe that six party talks will probably resume with bilateral sidebars with the North Koreans in order to give the US cover for talking with the North Koreans.  In the interview it appears Cha even agrees that this is probably what is going to happen.

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  • LORDOFE2
    5:46 pm on September 6th, 2009 1

    Victor Cha is soft on North Korea.

  • gerry
    5:49 pm on September 6th, 2009 2

    "Nothing to see here, move on". But "really" you have to admire the NKs for the skill they have in doing the same thing over and over and they always catch their fish. It should be in the Guinness book of world records.

 

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