By This sounds like a pretty plausible theory of why the Obama administration so quickly gave in to demands from the North Koreans to hold bilateral talks:
More rumors that North Korea might be preparing for a third nuclear test, especially if talks with the U.S. are slow to happen or don’t go their way (i.e. loosing the restrictions on economic sanctions). I can’t help but wonder, if these rumors helped spur the Obama administration into bilateral talks, dropping its requirement that North Korea return to the Six Party Talks first. It may also be worth noting that Kim Jong-il might be eager to demonstrate proof of its uranium enrichment program, since the North’s recent claims have been met with a great deal of skepticism by the international community. [Window On Korea]
Here is a Fox News report on the North Korean threat of a third nuclear test.
Personally I would be surprised if they in fact were already capable of detonating a uranium bomb though I would have some morbid fascination in seeing the reactions of all the North Korea apologists over the years if they did in fact detonate one. However, I think the threat of a third nuclear detonation was a brilliant one by the North Koreans. The Obama administration currently has the news cycle completed focused on the health care debate and a North Korean nuclear detonation would completely change that.
So agreeing to hold bilateral talks that will likely accomplish little was the easy answer. It appears the Marmot agrees with this assessement as well. When you have watched this same old nonsense play out for years it is hard not to be cynical.
12:18 pm on September 14th, 2009 1
I think it becomes a game of who wants to talk to who and on what terms. I see Kim Il Jong as looking at the current administration as easy pickin's. Kim's doing just fine. Next up will be the "break through agreements and the aide package", (to be delivered beforehand).
1:22 pm on September 14th, 2009 2
Test. Test. Test away.
If I were in charge of things, I'd do what I could to nudge Pyongyang to use up as much of it bomb grade nuke material as possible and isolate itself more and more from China, Russia, and everyone else.
Test away….
1:30 pm on September 14th, 2009 3
I agree. Not to mention the amount of high explosives the NKs need to use to make it seem like a real nuke. (place the plutonium on top, near the vent, so everyone will know that we have a nuke).
1:44 pm on September 14th, 2009 4
Millions of kilograms of high explosives? They may as well go ahead and build a real nuke.
1:49 pm on September 14th, 2009 5
China and Russia are not isolating NK because of the nuke testing. With each test their bombs get better and better, so it't not actually a good thing for the world if they "test test test away."
3:03 pm on September 14th, 2009 6
Since they have only done 2 – the better and better idea is limited. They needed to do a 2nd to prove they have a working design since the first was a dud. Now, they have to balance what they are using up with the technical development they can get — along with the hope of getting the US to cave in yet again. If they US doesn't cave, and they start testing regularly without time to put in the study necessary for development, then they are wasting material. How frequently did the US and China and Russia and the others test their nukes in terms of development? India and Pakistan haven't been firing them up, but I bet they have been improving what they have without it.
On isolating China and Russia, the provocative acts do put China in a bad position and have led China to agree with occassional tougher actions the US had been wanting. Testing nukes regularly will give China less time to let things calm down between provocations so it can go back to business as usual with the North and ignore US pressure.
8:45 pm on September 14th, 2009 7
Yes, and they probably don't have a lot of plutonium left. The best they can come up these days to intimidate South Korea is release some water from its damns. If that's not evidence that North Korea is running out of options and ideas, then I don't know what is.
8:44 am on September 15th, 2009 8
That is what has me somewhat worried. (Heightened a little by the fact that I'm back in Korea too…):
Acts that seem to indicate desperation rather than diliberation on the part of Pyongyang make me worry collapse is more likely in the near future than at other times. I want NK to collapse, but it will not be pretty and not without significant costs – perhaps catastrophic short-term costs…..