By This seems like quite a bold prediction to be making that by 2012 the two Koreas will start transitioning to reunification:
U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs speculates that a unified Korea could overtake G7 countries like France, Germany and Japan in economic strength. In a report Monday, Goldman Sachs projected that given North Korea’s potential, a unified Korea will in 30-40 years be on a par with or overtake G7 countries except the U.S. in dollar GDP.
Though North Korea’s planned economy system looks on the verge of collapse, it offers a large and cheap competitive workforce and a wealth of natural resources whose value is 140 times larger than its GDP in 2008. A combination of South Korea’s technology and funds and North Korea’s resources and workforce would be a powerful force, the report said.
It speculates that the reunification of the two Koreas will proceed in three stages: transition (2012-2027), integration (2028-2037) and maturity (2038-2050). [Chosun Ilbo]
I have no doubt that a unified Korea could be an economic powerhouse over time. However, the faulty assumption about this prediction is that is assumes that the North Koreans want unification on South Korea’s terms and that the South Koreans want unification with North Korea at all.
2:27 am on September 22nd, 2009 1
I think the Goldman Sachs study does make a good point that the costs and benefits of reunification should be re-evaluated; while it certainly will have a hefty price tag upfront, too many Koreans just out-of-hand dismiss reunification solely because it "costs too much."
That being said, I hadn't seen the talk about a 2012 starting point, and while I won't dismiss it outright (because who knows what can happen in four years), I am highly skeptical that both sides will be politically ready to start such an ambitious project by then given the current political tensions.
3:29 am on September 22nd, 2009 2
For years, people have been predicting that the Koreas would reunite. I don't think it will ever happen.
5:50 am on September 22nd, 2009 3
I give unification by 2012 a 50% chance, because I give it a coin toss that the regime won't survive the transition after Kim Jong-Il dies.
I don't believe Korea will be an economic powerhouse within my lifetime after unification…
The only shot I can see is if the global community pours unbelievable amounts of money into it, and I can't see that to that extent. NK is going to drain too much. I don't think it will destroy SK's standard of living, but it will prevent the kind of money SK has poured into economic development since the time of Park Chung-Hee.
And then there is China. Unified Korea will have cheap labor, but not more than other China or other nations that have long drawn economic investment on that account. China also has the target consumer market. NK just doesn't have the population size to draw in global business interst like China, India, and other populous Asian nations….
But that is also an archair opinion…
10:18 am on September 22nd, 2009 4
It would be funny to see unification. 22 million more people who are going to be spit on by 44 million. And rightfully so. Even the handful of Norks that go to the South hate it and can't function. They can't work properly, because they are lazy and didn't get an education.
It will be funny that is for sure. About 6 months after unification every North Korean girl will realize her only asset is her tail and there will be a massive whore house in the North.
10:30 am on September 22nd, 2009 5
I wouldn't assume that China won't throw a wrench in the gears, either. Hell, the economic potential of a unified Korea is just of many reasons why China will do everything it can to prevent reunification.
10:31 am on September 22nd, 2009 6
one of many reasons…sorry
12:12 pm on September 22nd, 2009 7
That sounds less like unification and more like colonization to me. Will South Korea have no further need of immigrant workers and have their North Korean 'brothers' and 'sisters' perform the 3D worker duties of the future?
Optimistic speculation, but what is it based on? While mainland China was seen to have the poorer economic system, when they unified with Hong Kong, China had already been on the road for a government regulated market system that starting to improve the lives of and satisfy it's people. Looking at where they are now, it seems to have worked out for them.
I don't know why anyone would suggest that after unification, North Koreans would have any interest in maintaining any residue of the bankrupting economic system. That system is only sustained by a demi-god based leadership system. I don't see how South could agree to enter into any kind of unification with that form government. North Korea would have to have moved into more populist and participatory politic system before and political co-existence would occur.
For these reasons, I believe a Korean unification would likely be modeled more on the German model which will impose a server economic burden on the South, than the China model. Unless, South Koreans are willing to throw out all their professed principles and agree to enter into a partnership with the North that is exploitative of the North Korean people.
12:31 pm on September 22nd, 2009 8
correction: a server economic burden => a severe economic burden
1:18 am on July 12th, 2011 9
N. Korea just exploded her first nuclear device just 5-6 years ago, and just bombed a S. Korean naval ship and island just 1 year ago.
I honestly don’t think Korean reunification will occur without significant (I mean very significant) foreign intervention.
5:18 am on July 12th, 2011 10
dum*ss’es should read this article. It says most North Koreans will stay put in North Korea because it’s the only home they know. And it makes total sense.
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2011/07/116_90639.html
So you can stop your wet Expat dreams of Korea collapsing under the flood of NK refugees.
7:14 am on July 12th, 2011 11
It does makes sense Tom. It would take some kind of initiative to pick their arses up and move south. Not something Koreans are known for in recent history.
7:32 am on July 12th, 2011 12
So says the fat lazy Hill Billy.
