By The revisions to OPLAN 5029 have been long discussed between the US and South Korea and now it seems those revisions have finally become official:
South Korea and the U.S. have completed an operational plan that envisages military responses to six types of emergencies in North Korea including regime collapse, a government source said Sunday.
The source said the two sides will continue to complement and develop the plan.
In 1999, during the Kim Dae-jung administration, the South Korean and U.S. militaries gave shape to the contingency plan, but it was then billed as a “concept plan” and envisaged five scenarios — a civil war caused by a transition of power or a coup after North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s death; theft and sale abroad of WMD including nuclear, missile and biochemical weapons, by an insurgent army; a mass exodus; massive natural disaster; and the kidnapping of South Korean citizens.
The plan included no details on troop mobilization and deployment. During the Roh Moo-hyun administration, the two militaries discussed ways to turn it into an “operational plan,” but Cheong Wa Dae slammed the brakes on the idea since it feared the plan infringed on South Korea’s sovereignty.
But reports that Kim Jong-il suffered a stroke in August last year brought fresh impetus to the plan, and “Operational Plan (OPLAN) 5029″ was completed after about a year of consultations. [Chosun Ilbo]
The Korean government for their part is saying that none of this is true:
The Joint Chiefs of Staff on Sunday denied the plan has been completed. “Media reports that OPLAN 5029 has been completed are unfounded. We deeply regret that a secret military operations plan has been reported,” it said in a statement.
I find that hard to believe considering that USFK Commander General Walter Sharp had this to say just last week in regards to collapse scenarioes in North Korea:
The commander of U.S. forces in South Korea says the U.S. will continue to lead major operations even after South Korea regains its wartime operational command from the U.S. in April 2012.
During an international forum held in Seoul Friday, General Walter Sharp said U.S. forces will lead operations on removing North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction and amphibious assaults even after the wartime operations command transfer is finalized. [KBS Global]
What is going on is that the ROK government is probably slowing leaking this info out as a trial balloon to see what the public reaction will be. So far the reaction has been pretty muted, which means we will probably hear more details about this plan in the coming weeks. From what I am reading so far I am not liking it.
The effort to develop an updated OPLAN has been going on for years, but was long delayed by the prior Korean government. OPLAN 5029 last came up back in 2006 and the then South Korean Roh Moo-hyun government did not want to do any real planning for fear of angering North Korea. The South Korean reluctance to plan for the internal collapse of North Korea, something that is more likely to happen then a second Korean War, was a perfect example of ideology compromising the national security of the nation. A collapse of North Korea with no contingency plan between South Korea and the US would make the occupation planning before Operation Iraqi Freedom look like the second coming of the Marshall Plan. So both sides compromised and came up with a plan that really didn’t plan for much of anything other then securing weapons of mass destruction and the handling of refugees if the regime collapsed.
Will the PLA intervene in North Korea if the US deploys troops there after a collapse?
This current OPLAN announcement appears to just be building off the CONPLAN with the US once again responsible for securing WMD sites. First of all, why do US troops have to be used to enter North Korea to conduct such as mission? How are US troops being used to infiltrate in North Korea to secure WMD sites more effective than using ROK Army special forces troops? I have long maintained that no US troops should move into North Korea if the regime collapsed, which has put my views at odds with people I respect such as John Bolton and Nicholas Eberstadt.
I have said this repeatedly, but I will say it yet again, if US forces moved into North Korea if the regime collapsed, that would be an excuse for the Chinese to move in. The Chinese want to keep the North Korean buffer state along their border and will not willingly go along and give it up if they can help it. That is why I have always believed that if the ROK Army was prepared to execute an immediate occupation of North Korea if the regime collapsed. This would cause China to have a harder time legitimizing any invasion of North Korea with their own forces if the ROK Army is already moving in to stabilize the situation without the assistance of US forces.
US forces moving into North Korea would only legitimize any Chinese action into North Korea plus cause a host of other issues such as causing the North Korean population to question the legitimacy of the South Korean government. North Koreans have been brought up since the day they were born that the South Koreans are just puppets of the Americans and any US occupation force into North Korea would only confirm this in the minds of North Koreans. It will be imperative after any regime collapse to establish the legitimacy of the South Korean government with the people of North Korea and any US or Chinese intervention force will greatly compromise this.
Who will provide basic services for the people of North Korea?
Secondly, securing WMD sites is extremely important, but as the U.S. military’s experience in Iraq has taught us, providing for security, the rule of law, and government
services immediately after a conflict is even more essential. Who will stop the inevitable looting that will begin after a regime collapse? Who will prevent North Koreans from taking revenge against regime security forces and others who had oppressed them? The Koreans rely on government food rations, if the regime collapses, who will provide food for the country’s 23 million citizens? Several infectious diseases—scarlet fever, measles, typhoid, paratyphoid, and typhus—are reportedly spreading inside North Korea now. Who will enforce quarantines and treat the sick? Who will establish law and order in a country filled with small arms and explosives? Who will stand up a government that the citizens of North Korea will accept after a collapse? These are just a few of the host of issues that needs indepth city by city planning to address.
Any occupation of North Korea will not be easy even with detailed planning. The 60 years of indoctrination that has brainwashed the population against the outside world and has left the country with a shattered economy will make any occupation of North Korea extremely challenging. However, detailed planning in the event of a North Korean regime collapse will at least contain an extremely dangerous situation from turning into an international crisis and a possible stand off between the United States and China.
Here is some further reading on this issue:
- OPLAN 5029 Risks Ceding South Korean Sovereignty to the US [Hankyoreh]
- Time for Dialogue, Not OPLAN 5029 [Hankyoreh]
- Don’t Let Contingency Scenario Become Self Fulfilling Prophesy [Korea Times]
- Contingency Plan [Korea Herald]
9:43 am on November 3rd, 2009 1
Hopefully it will be mostly the Koreans who will occupy the North with the US providing some behind the scene logistics. With reports that a lot of North Koreans are becoming more savvy with South Korean culture through TV shows and movies, I think the South Koreans will be a lot more accepted. With the brainwashing and demonizing of Americans, the US will be smart to treat the occupation more as a PR campaign than a military one. As with China, they will also be smart to not interfere. From my understanding, China likes that North Korea serves as a buffer to US allies, but if they truly want regional stability, the Chinese occupation of North Korea will only worsen it. I just hope we won’t be in a situation to hear “You told us we will be greeted as liberators!” from soldiers. Hopefully we’ve learned from our mistakes.
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November 3rd, 2009 at 9:52 pm
“Hopefully we’ve learned from our mistakes.” Uhhhh, don’t count on it.
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11:30 am on November 3rd, 2009 2
Would China really be insane enough to start a war against the US? I mean they might as well kill themselves because they have no chance of winning.
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November 3rd, 2009 at 9:54 pm
What makes you think “they would have ‘no way’ of winning”?
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November 3rd, 2009 at 10:10 pm
Because China’s military force is mostly large but not well trained / equipped. They don’t have the ability to project military force, nor the ability to dominate the air / sea. But they got the ground all covered and locked in.
Basically this means it would be impossible to win against them in a ground war, but they lack the ability to strike back or cause significant damage to the US. Basically they just sit there until we’re tired of fighting them, then we go home, then they can call it a victory. But insofar as actually attacking the US can causing damage, they are not able to do that with conventional weapons. And they just recently gained ICBM nuclear capacity, something we’ve had for decades. And a nuclear war is the last thing China wants.
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November 4th, 2009 at 6:26 pm
You are talking about a war involving the US mainland, not an invasion of North Korea which is on Chinas border.
Chinas military is shrinking in size people wise, and growing dramatically in training,(they now take only the best and brightest, because of the ‘huge’ selection base and the decent pay). Modern aircraft, weapons, missles, communication systems, and equipment such as armored vehicles, tanks, artillory, and numerous heavy weapons are already in the inventory or are being built in China.
They will not go into battle with canvas shoes and not enough weapons and no food, radios or communication, such as during the Korean war of the 1950’s. They will go into North Korea well trained, fed and supported, to a very mountainous terrain that will favor the defender. They build many of their own weapons and do not use the “AK47″.
The Chinese fighters ‘who have always been brave and courageous fighters’ will dig their tunnels, sneak up at night, and use their patriotism, to overwhelm any mediocre adversary. Their country and public will support them as they have a tightly controlled media. Ours will not.
They ‘may’ lose in the end militarily, but they have a history of turning world opinion to their side propoganda and political wise. The US has a poor track record in those areas.
The US and South Korea may “win” a war with China over North Korea, but it will be very, very, bloody and at great cost financially, militarily, and politically.
1:19 pm on November 3rd, 2009 3
Well said, GI. It is completely counterproductive for the Americans to invade the DPRK in the event of a sudden collapse of the Kim dynasty. I’d like to think that the South Korean army is capable of locating the WMDs and all those tasks you mentioned, should be handled by the South Koreans and the South Koreans only. As for China, I know some in the South Korean and the American intelligence and academic community have contemplating a possible Chinese invasion or intervention; however I doubt this is just SK/American speculation as no Chinese sources have indicated that the Chinese have such plans in place. And why would they? There is no doubt that China will beef up security in areas along the North Korean border, but what will China gain from invading/entering the DPRK? To install a pro-Chinese regime? I don’t think the Chinese are that dumb, risking to antagonize 80 millions Koreans around the world and going against world public opinion. Of course China will not like seeing the Americans entering the DPRK, but even if the Americans did I have a feeling the Chinese will stay still. Chances are China will be negotiating with the South Koreans and the Americans secretly to make sure key Chinese interests in the DPRK will not be jeopardized and that’s it. There is really not much that China can do (after weighing all the pros and cons).
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1:25 pm on November 3rd, 2009 4
China doesn’t want to be neighbors to US forces. If they invaded North Korea, then they would be neighbors to US forces in South Korea. China would prefer a buffer zone in North Korea, propped by a puppet regime.
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November 3rd, 2009 at 10:08 pm
“If ‘they’ invaded North Korea”. Who is ‘they’? China? China could act in several scenerios to ‘enhance’ their position, should the north begin to collapse.
Collapse can take many forms, including infighting or rebellion. The Chinese need not invade so much as support the insiders of their choice or the rebellion from the outside, depending how they see the situation.
Support can include military intelligence, volunteers from China of Korean ancestry, as well as food, fuel and arms (weapons, ammunition, tanks, even air support). Yet no “Chinese” troops would cross the border.
Then what?
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November 3rd, 2009 at 10:15 pm
And you don’t think we’d be doing the exact same thing? Except in that scenario SK can actually cross over and act as a military peace keeping force. The most China could do is support a local group who wants to take power. But this isn’t Iraq or the middle east where the people are used to fighting each other constantly. This is East Asia where their brought up in a very authoritarian Confucian society. The ROK’s just march in and setup a new government making sure to prevent any would-be dictators from amassing power. The people wouldn’t turn into freedom fighters, hell all they do now is wonder where their next meal is from.
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November 4th, 2009 at 6:50 pm
Except South Korea and North Korea are still technically at war and have never signed a peace treaty. Any crossing of the border by the south would be an act of war.
Not so China. The world would have its say as to weather South Korea broke the armistace and invaded the north, vs China again comming to the aide of their beleagured North Korean friends.
Don’t expect western media to be sympathetic to the US or South Korea.