By As I have been saying for quite sometime, it is a false option to push China to pressure North Korea to change their ways and Andrei Lankov agrees:
To start with, China ― in spite of all rhetoric of “eternal friendship” ― is no admirer of Kim Jong-il’s regime and is frequently annoyed by the North Korean antics. China does not want Pyongyang to go nuclear, since nuclear proliferation threatens China’s own privileged position of a “legitimate” nuclear power. China also worries that North Korea’s nuclear program might trigger a nuclear arms race in East Asia, producing a nuclear Japan and perhaps, a nuclear Taiwan. Moreover, China rightly sees the North Korean economic system as irrational and wasteful.
Nonetheless, China supports North Korea. Throughout the past few years when South Korean and U.S. aid dried up, famine in North Korea was prevented, above all, by free or subsidized shipments of grain from China. China is the largest investor in and trading partner of North Korea. Why do Chinese continue to invest money into supporting the regime which they do not particularly like and do not see as their reliable ally?
From time to time some people in Washington and Seoul express their hope that China can be somehow persuaded to stop its support of the North or to use its supposed leverage to influence Pyongyang policy (like, say, pressing North Korea into denuclearization). After the second North Korean nuclear test in 2009, China chose to support the U.N. sanctions and there were statements that China finally was “in the same boat as the United States.” Alas, this is wishful thinking. China is not in the same boat, and will never be. There are good reasons why China supports the North, and these reasons are likely to remain valid for the foreseeable future. [Korea Times via NK Econ Watch]
People need to give up on the Chinese pressure fantasy and instead begin contemplating some real options to change North Korean behavior.
11:33 am on May 9th, 2010 1
"People need to give up on the Chinese pressure fantasy…"
Excellent point. Seems obvious enough when you remember that the sanctions against North Korea mentioned in the above article would have been much stiffer if it weren't for the fact that China has a permanent seat (hence, veto right) on the UN's Security Counsel.
11:49 am on May 9th, 2010 2
How about a little sabre rattling by the south?
Perhaps a South Korean rapid and massive buildup at the DMZ, with any number of intell overflights. NK would have to react, but wouldn't dare attack, because they know it would be the end of life as they know it. Might shake some sense into them.
7:07 pm on May 9th, 2010 3
One thing to consider: North Korea's claims of wanting to negotiate nuclear disarmament was probably done so at the urging of China (they most definitely don't want the US to send a couple of B-2 bombers armed with nuclear warheads here).
11:26 pm on May 9th, 2010 4
Perhaps pressuring the Chinese is just better than ‘not pressuring the Chinese’. Whether it affects their immediate policies is not absolutely critical. They should at least be made to feel a little heat so that their think tanks can factor it in as a legitimate irritation.
8:32 am on May 10th, 2010 5
Red China will never exert real pressure on NK. As much as they may be annoyed by NK craziness, the Red Chinese don't want a reunited free Korea on their doorstep. A united Korea with South Korea's economic power & with North Korea's military power would be a potent adversary in northeast asia. RC will never let NK collapse because there would be millions of NK refugees streaming across the border. NK will push RC as far as they feel that they can get away with it. Also if the US military is tied down in SK then there is far less chance of us becoming involved if RC were to start an invasion or blockade of Taiwan.