By Christopher Hitchens has an article posted on Slate of some interest, though for someone as smart as Hitchens I am surprised he continues to pass on the narrative that Kim Jong-il is a madman:
The answer is not hard to discover. So volatile and unpredictable and hysterical has the North Korean regime become that it was believed in some quarters that even the finding might trigger a fresh escalation—an escalation that might pass the nuclear threshold before anyone could draw breath. Richard Nixon used to ask his sick and compliant operative Henry Kissinger to imply to the Russians and Chinese that he might be such a touchy president that he was capable of anything—this loopy strategy became known in policy circles as “the madman theory of war.” In the case of Kim Jong-il, nobody has any difficulty believing that he is delusional and worse, so the blackmail keeps on working. [Slate]
The investigation took so long because the South Koreans had to get definitive proof of the sinking as well as recruit international investigators to help with the investigation in order to make the findings more legitimate. This is because if South Korean President Lee Myung-bak came out right away to blame the North then the communist fifth column in North would go mad cow crazy as a result saying that Lee is framing the North for a mility mishap. Lee would have to additionally contest with all the international North Korea apologists, who besides for Selig Harrison have been unusually quiet right now. Anyone heard from John Feffer in a while?
For all their bluster and provocations, Kim Jong-il and the North Koreans are actually quite rationale in what they do, but they want people to think they are nuts because it furthers their own policy goals.
With that said the larger point Hitchens makes that the US, China, & South Korea are all accomplices in North Korea’s behavior because neither country wants to see North Korea collapse is true. However, there are plenty of people with great ideas to change this present reality.
5:14 am on May 25th, 2010 1
Text from North Korea statement
SEOUL
Tue May 25, 2010 10:52am EDTRelated NewsUPDATE 1-North Korea says cutting all ties with South Korea
10:34am EDT
North Korea says cutting all ties with South Korea
10:17am EDT
Q+A: Why a "state of war" still exists on Korean peninsula
6:29am EDT
Q+A: How serious is the crisis on the Korean peninsula?
4:32am EDT
WRAPUP 3-Korea war of words unnerves markets
3:50am EDTSEOUL (Reuters) – North Korea announced on Tuesday it was cutting all ties with South Korea in retaliation for Seoul imposing sanctions on Pyongyang after torpedoing one of the South's warships.
World | South Korea | North Korea
The following are key points from the text of the report issued by the North's KCNA news agency.
"The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea, accordingly, formally declares that from now on it will put into force the resolute measures to totally freeze the inter-Korean relations, totally abrogate the agreement on non-aggression between the north and the south and completely halt the inter-Korean cooperation.
"In this connection, the following measures will be taken at the first phase:
"1. All relations with the puppet authorities will be severed.
"2. There will be neither dialogue nor contact between the authorities during (South Korean President) Lee Myung Bak's tenure of office.
"3. The work of the Panmunjom Red Cross liaison representatives will be completely suspended.
"4. All communication links between the north and the south will be cut off.
"5. The Consultative Office for North-South Economic Cooperation in the Kaesong Industrial Zone will be frozen and dismantled and all the personnel concerned of the south side will be expelled without delay.
"6. We will start all-out counterattack against the puppet group's 'psychological warfare against the north.'
"7. The passage of south Korean ships and airliners through the territorial waters and air of our side will be totally banned.
"8. All the issues arising in the inter-Korean relations will be handled under a wartime law.
"There is no need to show any mercy or patience for such confrontation maniacs, sycophants and traitors and wicked warmongers as the (South Korean President) Lee Myung Bak group."
6:09 am on May 25th, 2010 2
Yep, North Korea responds to South Korea's "You're fired!" by saying "I quit!" Less cryptically: North Korea says it is severing all ties with South Korea [see here].
And now we have a potential hostage situation in Kaesŏng, methinks.
As for Mr Hitchens, it just seems that the unpredictable madman idea is the facile way of looking at someone they only look at when they hear some noise coming from this part of the world.
6:21 am on May 25th, 2010 3
Point 5 in Lemmy's post says the folks at Kaesong will be expelled without delay. I hope this promise is kept.
10:50 am on May 25th, 2010 4
Exactly, pretending to be capable of anything is NK's strategy because they don't have many other trumps to rely on. This is no different than a robber brandishing a gun, even if he doesn't have the guts to shoot somebody. He doesn't need to, as long as people believe he might. Many criminals brandishing guns have no intent let alone the will to discharge it.
The best illustration of this is simply how many times NK has threatened total war before. It's at least once a year, the most recent being last November.
11:47 am on May 25th, 2010 5
While I agree with some of the points in the article, when he says stuff like "We aren't allowed to know for sure whether there are nuclear mines in the wide strip of desolation that separates the two Koreas," and "It has also built a series of dams, which, if opened or blown, could flood and drown a good part of South Korea." I have a hard time taking him at all seriously.
12:15 pm on May 25th, 2010 6
Except the number of "Consultive officials (political)" being expelled is "8". The number of South Korean managers at kaesong is 800.
Lots of hyperbole. The Kaesong complex provides approximately one third of North Koreas income. North Korea may be ranting and raving, but they can't let go of 1/3rd of their economic income.
personally I'd like to see Kaesong shut down.
12:24 pm on May 25th, 2010 7
How did North Korea get from two possible failed nuclear undergroud explosions to being nuclear armed with missles, underground nuclear mines and artillory shells in a few short years?
The only verification to date has been of a large underground explosion of a magnatude that was slightly less than one would expect from a successfull nuclear explosion and the Russians saying they detected some radioactivity in the air afterword.
From this the world seems to think the Norks immediately made all sorts of nuclear weapons. Does anyone understand the difference between a 'possible' underground detonation and building a nuclear weapon?
10:25 am on May 26th, 2010 8
Nobody in the world, including NK, disputes that this was an actual underground nuclear detonation. Oh, except you.
9:05 pm on May 26th, 2010 9
The North Koreans did achieve two weak nuclear explosions. They haven't even matched our bombs from 1945. So they could massacre thousands of innocent people, but they couldn't fight a nuclear war.
2:00 am on May 27th, 2010 10
I was just wondering, how do we know the torpedo was fired by a NKorea sub, since it’s à Torpedo they are exporting?