By That is one of the possibilities that STRATFOR believes the North Koreans may try to attempt to further raise tensions on the peninsula:
The questions STRATFOR is focusing on after the Nov. 23 attack are as follows:
- Is North Korea attempting to test or push back against limits on conventional attacks? If so, are these attacks meant to test South Korea and its allies ahead of an all-out military action, or is the North seeking a political response as it has with its nuclear program? If the former, we must reassess North Korea’s behavior and ascertain whether the North Koreans are preparing to try a military action against South Korea — perhaps trying to seize one or more of the five South Korean islands along the NLL. If the latter, then at what point will they actually cross a red line that will trigger a response?
- Is South Korea content to constantly redefine “acceptable” North Korean actions? Does South Korea see something in the North that we do not? The South Koreans have good awareness of what is going on in North Korea, and vice versa. The two sides are having a conversation about something and using limited conventional force to get a point across. We should focus on what the underlying issue is.
- What is it that South Korea is afraid of in the North? North Korea gives an American a guided tour of a uranium enrichment facility, then fires across the NLL a couple of days after the news breaks. The South does not respond. It seems that South Korea is afraid of either real power or real weakness in the North, but we do not know which.
Read more: Is North Korea Moving Another ‘Red Line’? | STRATFOR
I seriously doubt the North Koreans would actually try to invade and occupy an island because the South Koreans and probably even USFK would be forced to respond and the North Korean forces trying to capture the island would be decimated. I continue to think that an artillery strike in a populated area or a terrorist strike may be the next thing they try. Many commenters on this blog have been speculating that the North Koreans may try to shoot down an aircraft as well, which is also a possibility. What other attacks do readers think the North Koreans may try?
10:13 pm on November 24th, 2010 1
Maybe it would take an terrorist strike or an artillery strike in a populated area to make the many apathetic South Koreans wake up to the reality of the monster they face to the North. I'm not talking about leftists. There are plenty of average South Koreans who think that the North is nothing to fear and that there will never be an invasion or even a limited war.
10:28 pm on November 24th, 2010 2
The South Korean defense minister decides to resign? Now?
I understand its customary in Asia for an agency head to hand in their resignation when a tragedy occurs in their charge. But, to outsiders, for him to resign now, creates the impression of defeat and helplessness.
Wrong signal!!!
10:29 pm on November 24th, 2010 3
If they try anything like that, it will be the end of them.
10:49 pm on November 24th, 2010 4
Teadrinker, a lot of people have said that at a lot of lines in the sand and seen nothing happen. Someone said on Marmot's that SK would go to war if NK shelled parts of Seoul.
Mebbe.
Mebbe not.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IX_d_vMKswE
11:17 pm on November 24th, 2010 5
South Korea is proving one thing in its non-response: it has far more to lose than North Korea does. Call them the good guys if you like, but that doesn't stop the other side from doing what they want with impunity.
North Korea's leadership may be finished, but you can bet they'll do the maximum damage they can before they go.
And that's what would keep me up at night.
11:20 pm on November 24th, 2010 6
The real problem are not North or South Korea but US economic crisis and US plans to destabilise the region. If USA want peace and security all problems can be resolved in 24 hours. The disputed zone can be transformed in demilitarized zone with equal economic rights of the two sides, peace treaty can be signed, all north nuclear weapons and missiles destroyed in one month and the right for peaceful use of nuclear energy and space exploration of North Korea officialy guaranteed.
11:36 pm on November 24th, 2010 7
I say we just give them Czechoslovakia. It's all they really want and then they won't go any farther.
12:10 am on November 25th, 2010 8
Welcome to the board Luk, our resident idiot won't be as lonely anymore. Let me guess….Chinese studying at some Western U….
1:15 am on November 25th, 2010 9
Hamilton, I vote that its brilliant satire. I always like to believe the best of people.
1:32 am on November 25th, 2010 10
LUK,
I agree… but 24 hours is too long.
I think it can be done in 12.
Sign the peace treaty, encourage peaceful nuclear research and space exploration, tear down the DMZ fences, open the seas for both nations to use, convert the bombs and missiles into winter fuel for poor people.
…and give everybody a colorful unicorn for a pet.
2:18 am on November 25th, 2010 11
Luk is a real Chinese. I can tell just by the way he speaks.
They better keep their dogs the North Koreans away, if they don't want to see the entire North East Asian region goes up in flames. The US should butt out and stop opposing South Koreans from going nuclear. If South Korea is attacked by North Korea, then South Korea should launch a nuclear strike on China and Beijing. If South Korea's going to go down in flames, then I want to take China with me. There are too many Chinese in this world as it is, so a little depopulation is in order.
2:18 am on November 25th, 2010 12
NK is just stirring up stuff and testing the waters for how much it can get away with. No use speculating about it or getting peoples panties in a wad.
3:54 am on November 25th, 2010 13
I did not think about the North Koreans attempting to invade one of ROK's islands at all. Hm, that's an interesting thought.
I just can't understand the North.
Lee Myung Bak is rarely doing anything to ease this process at all.
At least the past Korean Presidents were on good terms with Kim Jong Il, but our current President is, well.. you get the picture!
4:19 am on November 25th, 2010 14
If North Korea invades the Islands, I propose the USFK to go in there first and fight the North Koreans and retake the islands, ala Iwo Jima.
4:20 am on November 25th, 2010 15
Laporte will lead the way, followed by Hamilton.
4:56 am on November 25th, 2010 16
I doubt they would try to invade and hold one of the myriad islands up there (and there are more than five; some, like Yŏnpyŏngdo, consist of a greater and lesser island, but they're called one name, like Tokto).
Simply put, doing so strips away plausible deniability. None of the islands are "disputed" (though North Korea does claim all of South Korea and vice versa) and all are in waters that are similarly undisputed. They would have no way out to claim they were the victims of South Korean aggression and a great deal of on-the-fence folks would turn on them.
4:58 am on November 25th, 2010 17
ChickenHead wrote:
They make good toilet roll holders.
Oh, and why are you feeding the new troll?
5:56 am on November 25th, 2010 18
"Teadrinker, a lot of people have said that at a lot of lines in the sand and seen nothing happen. Someone said on Marmot’s that SK would go to war if NK shelled parts of Seoul."
North Korea's been attacking civilians and soldiers in the border regions since long before the Korean War. So, if that's were the line's been drawn, it has been crossed long ago. Shelling Seoul would be a whole different thing. Don't forget, it's not only the most populous city, it's also the capital. If that ever happens, the North Korean government can count on receiving South Korean cruise missiles up their dong-kos.
5:57 am on November 25th, 2010 19
"Simply put, doing so strips away plausible deniability. None of the islands are “disputed” (though North Korea does claim all of South Korea and vice versa) and all are in waters that are similarly undisputed. They would have no way out to claim they were the victims of South Korean aggression and a great deal of on-the-fence folks would turn on them."
Excellent point.
6:16 am on November 25th, 2010 20
Oh, and it turns out that they fired missiles, not artillery shells. Those particular missiles would have had to have been moved closer to the DMZ from their usual position in order to have the island in range, which suggests that the attack had been planned even before the South Korean exercises.
6:39 am on November 25th, 2010 21
"Oh, and why are you feeding the new troll? "
He's not a troll, he's a Red Chinese nationalist. I can smell one from anywhere.
8:03 am on November 25th, 2010 22
@14
Good idea but It would probably be the U.S Marines to do so, ala Iwo Jima.
9:26 am on November 25th, 2010 23
@6 I thought Opium dens were outlawed in China a long time ago.. If not, I want what Luk has been smoking..
@20 Aye so that kind of confirms that this was not a random incident but something planned out with the consent of Evil Kim and Mini-Kim. Also noted that these rockets were FAE types.
@21 Go get-em Tom.
10:06 am on November 25th, 2010 24
Premeditated attack using Fuel Air Explosive rockets… and they managed to kill 4 people??? They might want to get a refund on those weapons.
11:12 am on November 25th, 2010 25
Teadrinker 20, who says they fired missiles?
12:19 pm on November 25th, 2010 26
If this article is true, then I think a safe assumption is that the new 4-star general was flexing his power through his father's guidance.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6AO0AT20101…
12:21 pm on November 25th, 2010 27
@25 I guess you don't watch the local korean channels, here a link from Marmot to enlighten ya
http://www.rjkoehler.com/2010/11/25/sweet-guys-th…
12:22 pm on November 25th, 2010 28
Glans,
It was mentioned at Marmot's that a MLRS battery joined proceedings. No word on what, if any, hits they achieved. Hitting targets on a steep reverse slope is almost as painful as trying to pick them out of caves, after all.
12:27 pm on November 25th, 2010 29
#6 LUK.
You know what they say. One is born every day. LUK is one.
1:31 pm on November 25th, 2010 30
#29
Christ! That means were trailing behind China again in another critical category the world Census.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by…
That a whole mess O screaming ijoits.
2:32 pm on November 25th, 2010 31
I think in this instance that the NK really f'ed up because civilians were killed in addition to the two ROK Marines. If the NK Army invades some of these islands I think the SK will have no other choice but to throw them out of the islands. Maybe they will launch an operation, shoot up some stuff, then immediately withdraw. Even here I think the SK will have to respond otherwise who knows what the Kim's will do next. I think downing an aircraft, sinking another naval vessel, or a terrorist attack such as the attack during the 1960's on the Blue House are far more likely.
2:39 pm on November 25th, 2010 32
#31 Either way TL, it just might be time to kick some DPRK assses. I do believe there are some ordinance north of the DMZ that are long overdue for selective targeting and destruction.
Talking doesn't work. Never did.
2:59 pm on November 25th, 2010 33
Retired GI #32, I agree with you. Appeasement never works, it didn't work with Hitler in the 1930's & it didn't work with the Soviets in the late 1940's, 1950's, 1960's, or the 1970's. The SK need to show that they have some stones or this crap will NEVER stop. I believe that step 1 is to cancel all aid to NK, period. I agree with the other Tom that we should not stand in the way of SK developing their own nuclear weapons. In addition to taking out the ordinance north of the DMZ that you talked about, the SK could take out some of KJI's palaces as well. Hopefully he would be in one of them as a cruise missile flew up his kom dingy.
3:08 pm on November 25th, 2010 34
http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?a…
Article mentioning the fuel-air weapons. Also mentions that some very significant numbers of duds have been found so far.
5:32 pm on November 25th, 2010 35
I never did understand why the annual South Korean civil defense exercise didn't include some mass evacuation component. This would be a good time to demonstrate that. Let's see how orderly we can move tens of millions of people to south of Cheonan.
You want to confront a bully? First have the women and children leave the room, then gun up.
5:56 pm on November 25th, 2010 36
Ammunition is ordnance. An ordinance is a city law.
Be that as it may, "South Korea's military said sounds of distant artillery fire were heard on Friday from within North Korea, and a Reuters witness said he saw smoke rising from inland North Korea."
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2010/11/26/world/i…
8:58 pm on November 25th, 2010 37
#34, Gulag slave labor makes a lot of nK weapons and ammunition. The nKs work on the old Soviet Artillery Tables, they plan for a lot of their shots to land outside the target area, or to fail to detonate that is why they rely on massed fires. It actually works after a fashion and is very hard to defeat quickly for modern armies.
4:40 pm on February 5th, 2012 38
The DPRK is the legitimate government of Korea and all of the Korean peoples support immediate withdrawal of US occupational forces.
If the DPRK wants to defend itself, I suspect it will attack all bases where American occupiers are stationed.
4:46 pm on February 5th, 2012 39
On what basis?
Not by a long shot.
4:50 pm on February 5th, 2012 40
Yo Hwang-Suk, have a good meal last night? Like your job, house, freedom, options to travel, education etc?
I wonder what your average norK had for dinner last night? I wonder if they would trade places with you. I’m sure, if you put your mind to it, you could go live in the north. Put your money where your mouth is. But you won’t, will you?
1:04 am on February 6th, 2012 41
Yo Hwang-Suk. Let me echo what Leon LaPorte said. Where do you live. If you think that North Korea is such as paradise I would be happy to chip in to buy you a ticket to go live in the country of your dreams. I’m familiar with Marxism but I must have missed the part that talks about supposedly a classless society with a family dynasty in power. Please enlighten me in what work by Karl Marx or by Vladamir Lenin is this found. If the DPRK is such a paradise on earth why don’t the people living there have access to the internet so they can learn the depraved state of all the other peoples of the world? How does a 28 year old with no military experience suddenly become a 4 star general & when his father dies then he becomes the leader of a country? Why do the DPRK people lie to their people about the birthplace of Kim Jong-Il? They claim he was born in North Korea but the actual truth is that he was born in the former USSR. Why are the people of the DPRK starving & the new leader Kim Jong-un looks like he live at an all you can eat buffet? If you live in either the Republic of Korea or in a western country then you are being hypocritical. Why does the DPRK demand foreign aid when according to juche they are supposed to be self reliant? Get your head from out your piper & please THINK.
1:48 am on February 6th, 2012 42
Yo! Idiot ^^ Don’t worry man! American dudes will leave whenever they feel like their interest is waned or mission accomplished. So, what do you think is America’s interest or mission in The ROK? And what would be ROK people’s real interest in having America. Boys and gals stationed here. I think there is a mutually beneficial relationship here. Be it genuine or not. Americans keep the Chinos at bay across on the otherside of the Yellow Sea and Koreans keep the Kim boy on the other side of the DMZ. With minimum presence here on the Peninsula the USA could keep itself drawn into a war in Asia again. The ROKs save A LOT of money which would have been spent on their defense had it not been for the US troops. There you go. Not all Koreans like Kim Jung Eun. He’s too obese for our taste.
1:51 am on February 6th, 2012 43
US could keep itself from being drawn into a large war in Asia with only a minimum presence on the K Peninsula.