By So is this the beginning of Chinese Forces Korea (CFK)?:
Chinese troops have been stationed in the special economic zone of Rajin-Sonbong in North Korea, sources said Friday.
This would be the first time since Chinese troops withdrew from the Military Armistice Commission in the truce village of Panmunjom in December 1994 that they have been stationed in the North.
“Pyongyang and Beijing have reportedly discussed the matter of stationing a small number of Chinese troops in the Rajin-Sonbong region to guard port facilities China has invested in,” a Cheong Wa Dae official said. “If it’s true, they’re apparently there to protect either facilities or Chinese residents rather than for political or military reasons.”
How many of them are there is not known. The move is unusual since North Korea is constantly calling for U.S. forces to pull out of South Korea and stressing its “juche” or self-reliance doctrine.
A China-based source familiar with North Korean affairs said, “In the middle of the night around Dec. 15 last year, about 50 Chinese armored vehicles and tanks crossed the Duman (Tumen) River from Sanhe into the North Korean city of Hoeryong in North Hamgyong Province.” [Chosun Ilbo]
You can read more at the link but the composition of this force if true seems overkill for protecting a port. That is why I think the force being used as a way to help suppress an uprising is a more logical reason for move so many armored vehicles into North Korea. If any instability was to happen in North Korea it would begin in the impoverished northeastern sector of the country where these troops are conveniently stationed.
Over at the Marmot’s Hole the discussion has been about whether this Chinese force is there to protect Chinese gambling interests in Rajin-Sonbong.
Kushibo on the other hand focuses on how this news is the real story about North Korea that is being missed by the international media that rather hype the narratives of regime succession, provocations, and offers of talks. I particularly like Kushibo’s idea of using this news as propaganda to use against the Kim Jong-il regime.
4:28 pm on January 20th, 2011 1
We can't tell now how much this move is related to things beyond the economic zone, but — troop movements to the border area is one of the key signs to look for in terms of approaching regime collapse.
If you believe China would have better intel than us concerning the potential for collapse, this move looks very, very interesting in relation to the series of provocations the North has done the last few years, which can be seen as possible signs of increasing desperation due to their own detailed knowledge of what is happening inside the North.
5:35 pm on January 20th, 2011 2
This is an extremely interesting & potentially ominous development. Articles on the wikileaks leaks have indicated that the Red Chinese have been somewhat more cooperative on North Korea. That information & this development may show that North Korean insurrection or collapse is edging closer.
6:58 pm on January 20th, 2011 3
The notion that China would feel compelled to protect port infrastructure with Chinese troops prompts a couple of interesting thoughts to ponder.
1. Doesn't North Korea have enough trustworthy military and police to protect Rason's port facilities without any help from its Korean War collaborator?
2. What does the civilian port need protection from? There is already a sturdy fence to keep impoverished peasants out. Where is the threat that necessitates a Chinese military contingency?
Of course we can't get any answers from Beijing because China's Foreign Ministry calls this story "sheer fabrication" despite an alleged eyewitness account from Sanhe, the Jilin province Tumen River border crossing port.
The South Korean press is prone to speculation and the same Chosun Ilbo source also claims that around the same time last month military jeeps spotted crossing the Yalu River from Dandong to Sinuiju might be used to round up refugees trying to flee across the China border.
同时，有人在中国丹东目睹军用吉普车进入朝鲜新义州。消息人士说，中国装甲车可能用来镇压骚乱，吉普车用来管制那些偷渡到中国大陆的朝鲜难民“脱北者”。
http://realtime.zaobao.com/2011/01/110115_15.shtm…
Answers to the above questions will be difficult to obtain without accessing inside information from reliable Rason eyewitness accounts (Chinese visitors or local Russian residents, specifically)
I will continue monitoring this mystery using Chinese language sources and report my future findings to ROK Drop.
8:12 pm on January 20th, 2011 4
Or maybe China really wants to protect the port, not from the population but from North Korean soldiers. I could see some generals attempting a coup after Kim Jong Il finally kicks the bucket.
8:27 pm on January 20th, 2011 5
#1, etc.
Yes, North Korea's collapse is near or we are being led to believe that it is (I'm more inclined to believe the former than the latter). Remember, they've been buying time with the promise that it will become a prosperous country by 2012, and we all know that's never going to happen. As I mentioned in another thread earlier today, its economy has shrunk last year, so has its agricultural output. In fact, this suggests the government is losing support from the population, in other words, that fewer North Koreans are willing to do backbreaking work for the Kims.
Thinks will get ugly North of the DMZ very soon.
8:28 pm on January 20th, 2011 6
…not that life is peachy there, by any means.
12:41 am on January 21st, 2011 7
I'm sure that China wants to have troops on the ground and in control of the situation in the event of regime collapse in NK. That way they could tell SK that they don't have to come north in order to stabilize (i.e. reunite) the country. The NK's would provide them with another ready source of virtually slave labor to manufacture the goods they will sell to the rest of the world (i.e. America).
8:44 am on January 21st, 2011 8
Obama warns China on N Korea
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110121/wl_nm/us_kore…
11:18 am on January 21st, 2011 9
Greg #8: Not a word of what Obama says means anything to China. The
expression "A paper tiger" is the moniker they can stick on him and be
right on the money.
1:10 pm on January 21st, 2011 10
I still want to see more about the troop movement, but I've been mentioning this for the last few years as possible signs the North is worried about imploding. If the North increasingly believes it is moving toward collapse in the near future, we would likely see exactly the kind of escalation of provocations that we have the last few years – with killing people being one of the last tactics tried, and the artillery barrage fits this thinking perfectly.
If the North is starting to crack up, we'd also likely see China moving troops to the border area, because China has more intel and familiarity with the internal working of the North than anybody else. They would see the collapse coming second only to Pyongyang itself.
So, now that we've seen the North move to killing (South Koreans) on land as well as at sea, and now that we see China moving at least some troops into the border area, — I'll be interested to see over the next 6 months if we see a significant increase in North Koreans fleeing the country – especially upper crust North Koreans – perhaps important families in the provinces – or – higher ranking North Koreans who are able to travel abroad for the government…
I would think the higher up North Koreans will be better at anticipating collapse and some will flee like rats from a sinking ship. If the collapse that comes is directly related to starvation and more severe economic hardship, I'd also expect to see more regular North Koreans moving into China like during the famine of the 1990s.
Over the next 6 months, that's what I'll be keeping my eye on: North Koreans fleeing, Chinese troops movements, and whether or not Pyongyang will use one of the very few cards it has left to play: Killing Japanese or Americans or a major, bold terrorist strike against South Koreans like it did in the 1970s and 80s — blowing up a Korean airliner or blowing up South Korean government people in a third country and so on…
3:19 pm on January 21st, 2011 11
#10,
Yes, I agree, although I find it unlikely that North Korea would try to get away with things they did in the 80's considering that the South Korean armed forces could take them out if it wasn't being neutered by the government(then again, artillery fire is what they did way back in the late 1940's before the war).
4:12 pm on January 21st, 2011 12
USINKOREA #10, You've made some good points. I tend to think that North Korea will hold itself together by sheer will at least through 2012 which is the centennial of Kim Il-Sung's birth. I think if the communist North Koreans make a move against the US, South Korea, or Japan I think they will receive a forceful response. It has become clear that appeasement has not changed the belligerence of the North Koreans. These bullies only understand force. If they were stupid enough to try to foxtrot with us, well look at what the Navy seal snipers did to the Somali pirates. Another factor that comes into play is that presumably President Obama will be running for re-election in 2012. No leader wants to be seen as weak. You can just see what the ROK SF did to Somali pirates who hijacked a ship with SK & Burmese crewmen, HOOAH!
6:26 pm on January 21st, 2011 13
What makes North Korea so dangerous is that – if it collapsed tomorrow, nobody would be surprised in the aftermath. If it went on another 5 years, it wouldn't be terribly surprising.
It is a nation armed to the teeth with the most deadly of weapons – that is constantly on the verge of collapse. It has been since the early 1990s.
12:49 am on January 22nd, 2011 14
To me, it sounds like North Korea, like South Korea back in the 70's, has a "slicky-boy" problem. Doesn't matter what we did, where we did it, the "slicky-boys' were always around, just like mama-san, and we always had to have a guard on everything, south of the Imjim River anyways. North of the river, not as much, since we were supposed to shoot at any sounds in the night.
3:04 am on January 22nd, 2011 15
Bill's point is also why I never pay much attention about China's trade zones and other economic development and aid that is supposed to help NK recover – and why I don't worry too much about China's long-term future with a North Korea:
From what I've read, North Korea's infrastructure is unrepairable without complete regime change.
It sounds like it is a culture of cannibalization – where things are stripped bare up and down the chain of command with survival need at the lower ends of society and rampant corruption and feeding off the looters and inefficiency due to lack of hope and concern.
7:37 am on January 22nd, 2011 16
#9, Not a word of any U.S. leader would mean anything to them since we for DECADES have been allowing them to become our debtor. However we should leave to posterity the labeling of papper tiger when dealing with China.
6:04 am on January 30th, 2011 17
So does anyone have any thoughts on what happens when the North inevitably collapses? Will China get the whole gold cupee? Or do you think the South will lay claim to all, or part of the Nork real estate?
3:57 pm on March 2nd, 2011 18
China, if it is still occupying parts of North Korea when things collapse there (which is to say, when Kim Jong Il dies), will not simply allow his son to take over, they will want to take control of North Korea like they are taking Tajikistan piece by piece, except with North Korea, they might want to take it wholesale and end up in a war with South Korea and the United States, in a limited engagement sort of land war that is stretched out over four to six years but confined to the Koreas. That is a best case scenario. Worst case scenario is the use of battlefield nuclear weapons, the spread of the conflict to all of Central Asia (think, Afghanistan and everything else), and Defcon 1 (each nation targeting each others' major cities with nuclear warheads). That's where it would all go if China decides it wants North Korea in addition to everything else it has been taking lately (Tibet, Tajikistan, Afghanistan intrusions, I could go on).
1:41 am on April 9th, 2011 19
I like to see someone like President Park Jung Hee back. That will scare everyone to shut the fup and go nuclear. SK really need to go nuclear and make all of them to keep the peace in NE Asia. If China gets involved war in Korea, it means no more business with China man and war will spread to China for sure. Shanghai will be gone with Marines on the land. It will be China against SK, Japan, US and the rest of the world. Unlike Korean war in 50's, SK is well prepare for the future wars with continuous training it's male population which will likely come up with about 10 million soldiers defending Korea with modern weapons. All NK soldiers want to surrender to SK because everyone knows that it's best for everyone. These NK will join up with SK to spread war in China and Beijing will be under ROK and it's new Goguro again in Manchuria. I am sure Japan wants piece of Chinese cake. There are thousands SK listed in the US armed forces and they will all volunteer to serve in ROK army.