By Well according to this report it is serious, but no where near a Chernobyl type of disaster:
Experts noted that much of the leaking radiation was apparently in steam from boiling water — and the falling radiation levels suggest the situation could be stabilizing.
Government spokesman Yukio Edano said the radiation leak potentially affected public health. But authorities and experts said the risks to the public diminished the farther the distance from the plant. At its most intense, the leak released a radioactive dose in one hour at the site 400 times the amount a person normally receives in a year. Within six hours, that level had dropped dramatically.
A person would have to be exposed to that dose for 10 hours for it to be fatal, said Jae Moo-sung, a nuclear engineering expert at Seoul’s Hanyang University.
Radiation elsewhere never reached that level. In Tokyo, 170 miles (270 kilometers) to the southwest, authorities reported radiation levels nine times a normal level — too small, officials said, to threaten the 39 million people in and around the capital. Weather patterns helped, shifting Tuesday night to the southeast, blowing any potential radiation from the plant toward the sea.
“It’s not good, but I don’t think it’s a disaster,” said Steve Crossley, an Australia-based radiation physicist. “If the radioactive material gets out, it’s a major problem. That doesn’t appear to be happening in Japan, and that’s the big difference. As long as you are not near it, it doesn’t pose a health risk.” (……….)
Experts said that differing designs in the reactors made it unlikely that Fukushima would degenerate into a widespread contamination problem. The biggest difference is that in Chernobyl’s case the reactor core caught fire and there was no containment shell — thick reinforced concrete around the reactor.
“We’re a long way from fuel material coming out of the reactor in the way it did in Chernobyl,” said Crossley, the physicist. “In this case, the fuel is still contained.” [Associated Press]
So who to believe; everyone on the Internet claiming that the Chernobyl sequel is on its way and everyone from China to the American West Coast are all going to grow 4 eyeballs here shortly or the nuclear experts that say one after another that though the situation is serious were not about to see any Chernobyl type of scenario?
The reality of this if you believe the experts is that at worst you could see is a radiation rise in the immediate vicinity of the plant that would be deadly to anyone exposed long enough to the radiation. That is why the Japanese government has already evacuated everyone within 20 kilometers of the plant. It appears at worst and this may even be inevitable according to some reports that this will be a localized disaster.
If people are really concerned about Chernobyl 2 occurring than watch what the US military does with dependents at Misawa, Atsugi, Yokosuka, and other bases in Japan. If they are evacuated than you know things are much worse than what the Japanese government is reporting.
1:11 am on March 16th, 2011 1
Right now the winds are taking any radiation away from Japan over the Pacific.
If the spent fuel rods are not controlled, they could leak extremely long lasting and dangerous radioactive isotopes like Cesium 127 and strontium. If the winds change and start to blow west from Japan, which some predict might happen over the weekend, how much danger would this pose on the Korean Peninsula? How can an American who does not speak much Korean, or any Korean in my case, find out about these meteorological conditions? Who is monitoring any radiation coming over the Yellow Sea? This concerns me as I have a daughter living in Seoul this year.
3:49 am on March 16th, 2011 2
No danger except for those that will contain the radiation. All this is a bunch of fear mongering. Fools in Cali are buying Potassium iodide like there is no tomorrow. For a weak leak 7000 miles away.
3:53 am on March 16th, 2011 3
Number one, watch Fox News or Fox Business. Wind is blowing AWAY from Seoul. But if you're anything like MY Mom, you will worry no matter what. That is just what Mothers do.
3:55 am on March 16th, 2011 4
#1, no danger to Korea directly, even if winds blow west.
Retired Hill billy, please make sure to have lots of Pacific Salmon. I hear they are delicious and good for your health.
4:01 am on March 16th, 2011 5
Margaret,
Don't worry too much.
If even the slightest hint of radiation comes towards Korea, the entire population will know about it quickly.
If your daughter is a civilian, such as an English teacher, she will likely have plenty of help in following the recommended procedures from Koreans.
If it is perceived as a threat, the airport will likely be clogged with people leaving Korea. If it is a true danger, the United state military will start evacuating dependents and may have a policy on evacuating American citizens under such conditions. Someone else will comment on that with the correct information.
As for the wind, check a map. From west to east, you have China, Yellow Sea/West Sea, Korea, Sea of Japan/East Sea, Japan. Generally, in the winter the wind blows FROM the northwest from Korea to Japan. In the summer, it blows FROM the southwest; again from Korea to Japan. So, generally, the wind never comes from Japan… although there could be smaller patterns that could bring some material from Japan… although, if that were to happen, everybody in Japan would already have turned into glowing zombies… so, basically, don't worry about it.
The only thing that comes over the Yellow Sea is yellow dust from the deserts of North Asia each spring… which, with Chinese industrial pollutants, probably has more to worry about than radiation from Japan.
If you are still worried, you can follow the wind patterns here:
http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Wind/Forecast.a…
In case of a national panic in Korea, such as what is happening in some parts of Japan, the stores could sell out of food and bottled water for a short time. While this is unlikely, I would recommend your daughter keep a supply of canned and packaged food. Some here might think I'm being paranoid… and, I stress that this is an unlikely situation which would be quickly resolved if there was no real emergency… but I'm a prepared kind of guy. In reality, it is probably another thing not to worry about.
So relax and wish your daughter an enjoyable year in Korea.
4:06 am on March 16th, 2011 6
#4 Tom
Thanks Buddy! I'll save some for you.
4:10 am on March 16th, 2011 7
Why did GI Korea get rid of the emoticons? I don't think he likes me.
4:35 am on March 16th, 2011 8
Some might think Chickenhead is a paranoid, zombie fearing survivalist who likes to hoard food, water, and defensive weapons. Me too. There doesn't have to be a nuclear meltdown to enjoy a bowl of Ramyan cooked over a pop can alchohol stove.
Tom, I think GI Korea is revamping the emoticons and incorporating a new one into the menu especially for you. It's the south end of a north bound horse;)
4:46 am on March 16th, 2011 9
To Chickenhead:
Thank you for all your info and excellent advice, which I will gladly take. You sound like a very sensible fellow and I really do appreciate your taking the time to provide such helpful information. You are probably absolutely correct that the Koreans will let any problems be known to their citizens, and of course I will look out for any news from and about the U.S. Military there. I agree with you that it's always a good idea to be informed and pro active, without panicking. By the way, I think I meant radiation from the Sea of Japan and not the Yellow Sea .oops !
(Yeah, I have heard about the Yellow Dust…something to look forward to !)
My daughter is teaching English and having a great experience. She really likes the South Korean people. Thanks for the good wishes. You have helped this mother have a good day, so I say to you too, Have a great day.
3:23 am on March 17th, 2011 10
everybody on my neighborhood is saying the radiation is killing the world and that we're all dying in 5 days.I know in my heart,we'll all live.I am 12 and proud to say if we die,it's for a reason.I know we'll suvive.so,only GOD will end the world anyway…see'ya guys later.
5:44 am on March 17th, 2011 11
#10
I hope you talk to your parents and they tell you those people saying that are not very smart and don't know what they are talking about.
Unless you are in Japan you should not worry.
6:02 am on March 17th, 2011 12
Iris, even if you are in Japan, everything will be done to keep you safe. Don't believe everything you hear people on the street saying. A lot of people are scared, and when they are the say stupid things. Nobody knows everything for sure.
6:56 am on March 17th, 2011 13
If you are in Japan, you need to get out of Japan. That's what the former Japanese engineer who was part of the design team that built the Fukushima plant said in the Japanese press conference. He said not to trust the Japanese government because they basically has no clue what they're saying. Wow, it's pretty serious if this true, and the plant really blows up and spews radiation all over, because from where the accident is, to Tokyo – there are 60 million inhabitants. Where are they all going to go if all that land mass area is polluted with radiation? Scary thought.
9:32 am on March 17th, 2011 14
Fear Monger much?
http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL…
hope I got that right.
9:49 am on March 17th, 2011 15
"Fear Monger much?"
Retired Hill Billy, kka-kkoong. Were you scared? lol.
10:27 am on March 17th, 2011 16
No danger at all to anyone more then a few KM away from the plant. The radiation detected is several orders of magnitude less then what is dangerous to a human being. The news media keeps confusing micro and milli when they do their analysis. Your not gonna want to build a house outside the front gates or drink and surface water around that area, but walk a few km away and you'll be ok. Underground water is safe.
Really guys, the fires at the chemical plants did more damage to the environment then these nuke plants did.
10:55 am on March 17th, 2011 17
Someotherguy,
You have been absolutely wrong in every rose-colored comment you have made about this entire situation.
Are you working for the Japanese power company?
As of RIGHT NOW, radiation levels 30 km north of the reactors are at the level where 6 hours of exposure is equal to the max level considered safe for a year.
This is quickly turning into a short-term disaster due to an already overwhelmed rescue response and crippled infrastructure that makes it impossible to evacuate hundreds of thousands of people who should flee the region. The history books will not be kind.
Once again, this IS going to be like Chernobyl… or worse… depending on how you calculate it.
Expect the American embassy to expand the 50 km zone soon.
So how bad is the radiation leak?
Bad.
And getting worse.
11:01 am on March 17th, 2011 18
The populated areas are getting relatively low readings because the prevailing winds are easterly (out to sea.) Those readings could increase dramatically if the winds reverse.
The evacuation zone also has to factor in a worst case; a major containment area explosion. No one can guarantee that won't happen yet.
11:17 am on March 17th, 2011 19
Of the two kinds of radiation hazards; high-energy electro-magnetic gamma radiation and decaying particle beta radiation, the first isn't affected by the winds but the second is.
Any of that water they are dumping that comes in contact with the material and is shot off as steam will carry it, so do the dust plumes from the explosions. So the winds are a major factor.
11:41 am on March 17th, 2011 20
And those radiation won't reach Korea.
2:33 pm on March 17th, 2011 21
@17,
Your information is wrong by a few orders of magnitude. I suggest you get your information from a technical source instead of the media. The going story on the media has misunderstood MICROsieverts for MILLIsieverts.
1000 microsieverts = 1 Millisievert
11,000 microsieverts = 11 Millisievert
This is measured at the front gate of the plant. 11 Millisievert's is a CT scan or about 5 X-ray's.
Also they've confused the difference between "safe" and "mandatory reporting" levels. Your required to report any radiation above a certain level, that level is about 10 ~ 100 times (depending on the type and nature) lower then what is safe.
This is nothing to do like Chernobyl. At Chernobyl they had an open top reactor with graphite fuel rods and no containment system or emergency shutdown system. It got so hot that the graphite caught fire and started to burn uncontrollably. It was this burning of core material that caused the explosion and subsequent spreading of reactor core material into the atmosphere.
At this plant none of that has happened. The reactor vessel's have not been breached although one of them has a breach in the water cooling system. The design's of these reactors makes a chernobyl like scenario impossible, you'd have to alter the fabric of the universe and thus the laws of physics to get the core material to catch fire.
To add insult to your already diminutive understanding of nuclear reactors, the reactors were shutdown seconds after the earthquake started by automated systems. What their worried about now is the residual decay heat from the hot material inside. This heat is caused by the decay of the nuclear products in the core and has a logarithmic decline in temperature. Basically immediately after shutdown it retains about 8% of its heat, over the course of a few hours it decays down to 1% then further until it gets cold. After a week its safe to do maintenance on and move things around. All this info comes from actual nuclear engineers directly, not from a news reporter trying to sensationalize and hype the current "story".
Now I know you never admit when your wrong and will just retort with some sort of half-baked ad-hominum attack, but there is always the chance you'll actually read.
http://www.talk-polywell.org/bb/viewtopic.php?t=2…
After reading that entire thread, and possibly poking around that site, then you can come back and speak with some sort of authority. Otherwise your nickname comes into play, peanut.
3:48 pm on March 17th, 2011 22
someotherguy,
"Your information is wrong by a few orders of magnitude. I suggest you get your information from a technical source instead of the media. "
Upon further reflection, I think you are right and I think you are right.
"This is nothing to do like Chernobyl."
I think you are right again… at least radiologically…
…economically and socially might be another story.
"The reactor vessel’s have not been breached although one of them has a breach in the water cooling system."
Is that the same water cooling system which is a pipe going into the containment vessel?
"This heat is caused by the decay of the nuclear products in the core and has a logarithmic decline in temperature. Basically immediately after shutdown it retains about 8% of its heat, over the course of a few hours it decays down to 1% then further until it gets cold. After a week its safe to do maintenance on and move things around."
Right. I understand that. Normally, I would agree with you here.
So, it has been a week. Why isn't everybody going home? Why has Japan taken the embarrassing step of asking for United States assistance.
If there is no possibility of any danger, what are people sacrificing their lives to avoid?
"Now I know you never admit when your wrong and will just retort with some sort of half-baked ad-hominum attack,"
Shame on you. I always admit when I am wrong and I seldom retort with an ad-hominum attack, half-baked or fully baked.
6:16 pm on March 17th, 2011 23
"…economically and socially might be another story."
Only because the media is hyper inflating the problem which is causing more chaos. Try to think of it in this light, the chemical plants that exploded will cause more death and long environmental damage then the nuclear plants will, yet the media is giving the chemical plants only light coverage.
"So, it has been a week. Why isn’t everybody going home? Why has Japan taken the embarrassing step of asking for United States assistance."
Because there are more reactors and the operation itself will take weeks if not months. The danger period is that week I mentioned, that the time when the core is still hot enough to cause problems, once its cooled down enough they can start the real work.
What they will likely do after a boron kill is verified to be complete is to cut the reactor vessel off and seal it up for transportation to a lab to be dissected. They'll take it apart and see exactly what failed and if there is anything that can be done in future reactor designs to improve safety. This is similar to what they do when air planes fall out of the sky. Right now the engineers are having to speculate to what exactly happened based on external information because they can't get close enough to look inside the reactor vessel. Their pretty good at this but in order to fabricate a permanent fix action you need the technical info from inside the reactor. Its a pretty good assumption that its slagged inside now (all internal components melted together in a big pool), the reactor vessels will never be used again that's for sure.
The real disaster is the burning spent fuel rods outside reactor 4 due to the pool losing its water covering. Reactor in the middle of a permanent shutdown, they removed the spent fuel rods and placed them in the temporary holding pond outside. Then an earthquake happened along with a tsunami, talk about bad timing. Those rods have similar decay heat problems to the inside of a reactor, their usually safe to be outside containment just not indefinitely. As long as their summered inside water everything is kosher, unfortunately something happened and the pond lost water and *poof* fire starts. They put it out pretty quickly but you still had some radioactive material go into the atmosphere, that is what their detecting further away.
People are worried about the ~possible~ outcomes not the actual present one. As such their assuming worst case scenario and following that plan, likely most of the things their doing are seriously overkill but it never hurts to be extra cautious when dealing with nuclear anything.
I'd suggest you keep up with the posters on that site, especially ladajo and Msimon. Ladajo used to design fission nuke plants before he retired and Msimon is currently a nuclear engineer, previously a Navy nuke sub plant operator.
6:23 pm on March 17th, 2011 24
If you prefer most quantitative information instead of the subjective "safe levels" type of reporting, Japan is providing some very useful data to its citizens. This site is in Japanese but if you go there on a browser like Google Chrome, it can be translated into good enough English that you can make sense of it. It appears to be updated every 10 minutes and gives radiation readings and wind direction for towns and cities in the Ibaraki Prefecture, which is between Sendai and Tokyo.
The radiation levels are measured in nanosieverts, which are 0.001 of a microsievert or 0.000001 of a millisievert. If you click on any of the city's names you will see that the readings have been steadily decreasing, at least over the last 24 hours.
6:40 pm on March 17th, 2011 25
Looking over that, none of these are anywhere near dangerous to human health. As I've said previously 11msiev was what was detected right outside the gate of the plant. Someone misunderstood the conversion and reported it was 11,000msiev which caused the international media to go into a frenzy.
Overall they've done a pretty remarkable job of reacting to and containing the situation. Here is some food for thought,
The plant is designed to withstand an earthquake of 8.2 magnitude. The Earthquake has recently been upgraded from 8.9 to 9.0 magnitude. This scale is logarithmic with each increase being double the value of the one previous. 9.0 is eight times (800%) stronger then 8.2. The facility was capable of withstanding an earthquake eight times bigger then originally designed for while successfully initializing automatic shutdown of the reactors and running the backup generators. The generators also withstood the earthquake and ran until the tidal wave knocked them out and damaged the electrical interconnects. The tidal wave itself was several meters higher then what the plant was designed to withstand.