By This is not good if there is in fact a breach in the containment vessel at the Fukushma nuclear plant:
A suspected breach in the core at one reactor at a stricken Fukushima nuclear plant could mean more serious radioactive contamination, Japanese officials revealed Friday — a situation the prime minister called “very grave and serious.”
A somber Prime Minister Naoto Kan sounded a pessimistic note at a briefing hours after nuclear safety officials said they suspected a breach at the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant that would be a major setback in the urgent mission to stop the facility from leaking radiation.
“The situation today at the Fukushima Dai-ichi power plant is still very grave and serious. We must remain vigilant,” Kan said. “We are not in a position where we can be optimistic. We must treat every development with the utmost care.”
The uncertain situation halted work at the nuclear complex, where dozens had been trying feverishly to stop the overheated plant from leaking dangerous radiation. The plant has leaked some low levels of radiation, but a breach could mean a much larger release of contaminants. [Associated Press]
With this latest fear comes news that 3 workers received a very large dose of radiation while working at the plant possibly from this leak:
The water three men were exposed to while working at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant had 10,000 times the amount of radiation typical for that locale, an official with the Japan nuclear and industrial safety agency said Friday.The contamination is likely from the No. 3 reactor’s core, the official, Hidehiko Nishiyama said.
He said there’s a possibility of “some sort of leakage” — including potentially from a crack in the unit’s containment vessel. [CNN]
The number three reactor is the one using plutonium along with having the spent fuel rods that need cooling as well. This reactor is by far the most serious public threat from this whole nuclear disaster and it appears to be getting worse. Let’s hope they can get this under control once they get the fresh water pumps hooked up and running to cool these reactors. Here is something else I found interesting from the article:
Switching to fresh water, instead of seawater, is also a priority for the No. 2 reactor’s core (as well as for its spent fuel pool), said Nishiyama. The aim is to prevent further corrosion and damage inside, which may be worsened by the buildup of salt.
Japanese defense minister Toshimi Kitazawa said Friday that a U.S. military ship filled with fresh water is heading toward the Fukushima Daiichi power plant. The ship will serve as a back-up for Japanese systems addressing the same problem, he said.
Does this mean that a US Naval ship will be parked outside the nuclear plant and fire freshwater into the reactors? If this is the case, major kudos to the guys that have to do that job.
11:03 pm on March 24th, 2011 1
Come on, GI Korea.
Between you and the prime minister adding to the media hype, the message that you just have to drop the control rods back in and take a week-long vacation while everything returns to room temperature is being lost.
Next, you will try to minimize any possibility of disaster with
11:36 pm on March 24th, 2011 2
Two barges, not a ship. Sensationalist CNN.
http://www.youtube.com/user/COMNAVFORJAPAN#p/a/u/…
12:47 am on March 25th, 2011 3
Come on, GI Korea.
Between you and the prime minister adding to the media hype, the message that you just have to drop the control rods back in and take a week-long vacation while everything returns to room temperature is being lost.
Next, you will try to minimize any possibility of disaster with a technical comparison to Chernobyl rather than a comparison to a smoking Fukushima with a bunch of people who presumably aren't busting their azzes and risking (sacrificing?) their lives just because there is nothing good on TV this week.
Besides, all the experts on various forums and websites have assured us that containment can't be breached… so quit spreading rumors.
Japanese women aren't really caring mothers so they probably won't care that small, "safe" increases in radiation exposure will cause their babies to do more poorly on standardized tests.
There will be no disaster… because all disasters are measured in body counts.
6:46 am on March 25th, 2011 4
Agreed with ChickenFace. GI Korea and Someotherguy have assured us that everything will be OK, and that this is all a media hype.
WELL IS IT STILL MEDIA HYPE??
The death toll is now running into 20,000, with more to come with slow radiation poisonings that won't be appearing until decades from now. What would be the real death toll in the long term? In many ways, this is worse than the Chinese earthquake because of the way the Japanese have built a poorly designed and poorly run nuclear plant complex. The toll will be much worse because of the environmental factors which will ensure Japan is poisoned forever.
Japan is toast. Oh well, too bad. One bright spot, at least Koreans are not in endangered and Korean economy will take over Japanese lost economy.
6:48 am on March 25th, 2011 5
This nuclear plant was designed by the Americans, at General Electric. They should be punished severely.
9:39 am on March 25th, 2011 6
#4,
Man, you had me until the last line. Seriously, you should consider getting an exorcism.
#5,
In the 1960's…The problem is that the company has a poor track record when it comes to safety standards. Two of it's presidents landed themselves in trouble for covering this up, if I understand correctly what I've read somewhere.
10:16 am on March 25th, 2011 7
Tom, does it make sense to you that Korea and Japan have been at war since the Sino-Japanese war in one form or another, and even though the Japanese surrendered to the Americans, the Emperor and the power elite remained in power, South Korea was occupied by Japanese collaborators under the Americans, and that Korea and Japan continue to exist in some kind of state of war that will not be settled until Japan surrenders to a unified Korea?
10:18 am on March 25th, 2011 8
Further Tom, are China and Korea allies in this ongoing struggle with Japan and the Americans?
10:50 am on March 25th, 2011 9
#7. Doesn't matter. I suspect Japan will never be the same. I feel sorry for them, rather than think of them as mortal rivals.
#8. I have no ideal what point you're trying to make here.
12:31 pm on March 25th, 2011 10
Tom: I read Bruce Cummings the Korean War and started thinking of an "alternate" view of Korea vs. Japan from the perspective of North Korea carrying on the struggle against Japan during the Korean war and then carrying that struggle foward until today. So, I wanted to take an extreme point of view based on that extrapolation and then see what your reaction to it would be versus the normal world view that most of the expats have here.
I kind of wanted to see Tom's views filtered through a different lense than reaction to American expat views.
12:48 pm on March 25th, 2011 11
I was thinking further on your post about China being wise about the UN resolution on Libya by seeking peace, and saw the reaction of someone saying you'll eat your words once China has military power. I guess a thinking trap that's easier for me to fall into is that China + North Korea = Violent Threat. China = Economic Threat. Japan = Economic Threat pre-bubble crash (1980's thinking). So you could look at Korea/Japan as economic rivals (not mortal enemies…) If you apply nations to economic relationships, then you've got the US and China struggling and Korea can be in the middle if you see it as one nation versus another versus another. So Korea works with a stronger China and rises up. Japan has this decline that it's in the middle of accelerated due to the earthquake on top of aging society. However, in 20 years Korea is going to have the aging society issue also and maybe unification issues on top of that along with Mount Baekdu exploding.
Anyway Korea and China can continue to compete with the US and Japan through peaceful economic means rather than warfare. I think their continued joint success and a US/Japan decline causing decreasing influence on Korea would be satisfying for you.
12:56 pm on March 25th, 2011 12
Kangaji,
Do you often talk to your wall?
1:31 pm on March 25th, 2011 13
From what I have read the Japanese authorities did not put the plants on a hill rather than at sea level close to an earthquake fault for budgetary reasons. They also used the GE/Toshiba boiling water reactor design instead of the safer pressurized water reactor design for budgetary reasons. Proposed safety retrofits of these reactors were not done for, take a guess, budgetary reasons. It sounds the same as how the US built the space shuttle. I hope the Japanese authorities enjoyed the money they saved building these reactors in such as half a$$ed way. There was an article on the Drudge report several days ago reporting that I think it was three GE scientists had resigned their positions years ago because of their belief in the danger of this reactor design. The latest news from GE on Drudge is because of how the tax laws are written is that GE made over $5 Billion from the US but paid NO income taxes, ain't that just dandy? GE=Gammaray Electric
1:32 pm on March 25th, 2011 14
Talk some more. I'm all ears.
3:56 pm on March 25th, 2011 15
GE built a reactor quite nice
then cut corners to reduce the price.
But maybe the plan
was to put it in Japan
with the intention of nuking them thrice.
8:50 pm on March 25th, 2011 16
It is American quality
That is reality
Is it American ingenuity
Or American responsibility
Based on American stupidity
9:58 pm on March 25th, 2011 17
Tom was no John Travolta
and he never lived in Malta
but he spent all his time
making false rhyme.
Perhaps, 가방 끈이 짧다.
10:51 pm on March 25th, 2011 18
Who is ChickenHead
What was he fed
Poisoned by lead
His mind sled
And his Chicken head
It will have bled.
11:16 pm on March 25th, 2011 19
Who is Tom?
We pity his mom.
With no aplomb,
his jokes all bomb.
The best balm
might be a pogrom.
And after they embalm,
things will be calm.
12:53 am on March 26th, 2011 20
Chickenhead: Noted.
1:47 am on March 26th, 2011 21
@tom
yes it may have been designed by Americans but have they kept up with there safety checks?? ask your self how back up diesel generators didn't start and as a mechanic i can safely say you can run a diesel engine under water as long as your have a breather so dont point fingers!
3:48 am on March 26th, 2011 22
Tom #16, 18. Don't even try to out do Chickenhead, sorry it just can't be done. You would have had a greater chance in trying to stop the tsunami by standing on the Japanese coast & lifting your arms up to block the water. As I said in my previous post the Japanese didn't put in the proposed safety retrofits that hopefully could have prevented this disaster. There is an old military saying, "Never underestimate the power of human stupidity!"
4:19 am on March 26th, 2011 23
Tom just got served.
6:48 am on March 27th, 2011 24
"A -suspected- breach in the core at one reactor at a stricken Fukushima nuclear plant -could- mean more serious radioactive contamination, Japanese officials revealed Friday — a situation the prime minister called “very grave and serious.”
"A somber Prime Minister Naoto Kan sounded a pessimistic note at a briefing hours after nuclear safety officials said they -suspected- a breach at the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant that would be a major setback in the urgent mission to stop the facility from leaking radiation."
I've put "- -" around the key worlds here. They took a very simple message and inserted indefinite words into the mix using emotional language to distort the original meaning. Then you got people like CH just trying to pump it up even more. Its been too long after the reactors shut down, all you have to worry about now is reactor material physically getting out of the vessel. Seeing as its mostly melted slag at the bottom of the vessel there is a very low chance of that happening. Their now going through the months to years long process of wrapping the vessels up and sending them off to a lab to be dissected.
This is a prime example of taking something with a low chance of happening and blowing it up, next week a small meteor -could- come smashing into any nuclear plant on the planet. This -might- cause some critical explosion on the planet. It is -suspected- that this event would end human life as we know it.
The above statement is 100% valid and true. So far I've been correct on everything that has happened. There has been no nuclear fall out / explosions, no rampant radiation, not even the long-lived low level sh!t that gets tossed into the atmosphere. The Japanese government has taken a very cautious and careful approach to this, very smart of them as they want to be prepared for the absolute worst.
12:00 pm on March 31st, 2011 25
A few minutes ago, there was just some kind of "criticality" event at Fukushima.
All communication with the site was lost. The media is in blackout. Japanese defense forces are quietly evacuating a 200km radius.
The situation is evolving rapidly.
Time to put on your lead underwear.
5:18 pm on April 2nd, 2011 26
Nobody bit on my April Fools joke, eh?
Some Korean friends were not so crafty… though not as many as last year's "they are shelling Seoul".
Anyway…
Q: How is your Filipina juicy like Japanese reactor containment?
A: A bunch of civilian and military guys are spending all their time and a lot of money trying to fill their 8 inch cracks.
5:58 pm on April 2nd, 2011 27
BTW, someotherguy…
While you ideas of how theoretical reactors work in an ideal world are sound, you might want to brush up on weasle word theory.
Nobody comes out and makes that strongly-worded of announcement about something bad unless they are pretty sure it actually happened.
If they don't think it happened they don't talk about it until asked… and then they use other phrases like, "at this time, we have no reason to believe".
The real indication of the seriousness of the situation is to watch what is actually happening with the people dealing with it.
Actions with little chance of success are being tried in desperation. Proud Japanese are asking for international help. The media has gone from over-hype to an eerie silence… even while quietly reporting events that are far more serious than what has happened up to now. And, by all indication, the reported news is a watered-down version of the much uglier truth.
The biggest problem is that hidden behind a lot of tecnical talk about how this cannot be another Chernobyl, the idea that high population-density Japan is not the Pinsk Marshes has been lost.
Between those who say we are all going to die and those who say you just drop in the control rods and wait a week for things to cool down, there is a reality that, while the release of total radiarion will (probably) be much less, the effect on the nation and the people of Japan will be much more.
Someotherguy says this is no disaster and there is nothing to worry about. I say the effects of this will be greater on a larger number of people than Chernobyl.
We can meet back here in a year and decide who is closer to reality.
4:59 pm on April 5th, 2011 28
There is some good news about the reactor. The Japanese used liquid glass & a hardener which has stopped the water leak which was leaking to the ocean. A problem is that all that water in the reactors is making the containment vessels more liable to rupture in case of another aftershock. The salt from the ocean water that was used as emergency coolant has possibly precipitated & clogged up some of the pipes in the coolant system. It is going to take months to stabilize these reactors.
12:30 pm on April 10th, 2011 29
We're currently mixing surplus plutonium with uranium to make mixed oxide, or mox, fuel for reactors. Is that a good idea? I say yes, but I ain't no expert.
1:36 pm on April 10th, 2011 30
We are fueling reactors with MOX
which some people claim really rocks.
But if leaked radiation
pollutes the nation
we may all wind up with ears just like Spock's.
2:24 am on April 20th, 2011 31
For anybody who cares, the reactor #2 and #3 containment vessels are unquestionably breached.
This is a very serious thing but the media has not yet reported this… even though it is blindingly clear that all these radiation releases are coming from somewhere.
There are temperature and pressure graphs of the reactors. They were e-mailed to me but may be available on-line.
Using an understanding of the Ideal Gas Law, pV=NkT (or pV=nRT to you old-timers), it is pretty clear what is happening.
Reactor #1 has higher-than-boiling temperature and higher-than-atmospheric pressure. This is reasonable. Heat plus water creates steam which creates pressure in an enclosed system.
Reactor #3 is at boiling temperature and has no pressure. This certainly means the reactor is being kept cool with water which then boils off into the atmosphere through a breached containment vessel. This is bad if it is carrying radioactive particulates with it.
Reactor #2 is a real problem. It has higher-than-boiling temperatures and has no pressure. This means it is breached and there is no water in the containment vessel because it can't get in or it drains out.
I loathe chemistry… do any of you armchair chemists want to check my work?
They are talking about 6 to 9 months to get these reactors under control as they continue to leak radiation into the air, soil, and sea. It is likely that this plan is more wishful thinking than a reflection of reality as they are continuing to react to the symptoms of the disaster instead of fixing the problems… some of which are increasing… and none of which can honestly be given a timeline for successful management.
Couple this with radiation reading by individuals that are higher than the official numbers in areas outside the evacuation area and there is a good case that this will be worse than Chernobyl… socially and economically… and maybe even in health issues and body count depending on how sincerely the situation is managed by the Japanese government.
9:14 pm on April 22nd, 2011 32
Japan has increased the evacuation area.
The level is not high enough to turn anybody into a glowing zombie… 20 millisieverts or more per year… but it is far above the usual 3 to 4 millisieverts or more per year that is considered normal… and certainly not the place to get pregnant, raise a family, or eat the produce from.
For those of you keeping score in Chernobyl Units™…
At Chernobyl, 28 people died from radiation exposure within 3 months and 200,000 were evacuated with a 30km off-limits zone.
At Fukushima, no people have been reported to have died from radiation exposure after 6 weeks, 70,000 have been evacuated in a 20km off-limits zone of unknown future duration. Residents between 20km and 30km, an additional 130,000 have been told to stay indoors and prepare for possible evacuation. Some areas are being evacuated in and out of this zone based on elevated radiation readings.
From the beginning, I have believed the Japanese government has downplayed every aspect of this disaster. I believe this is continuing.
It is likely that, as radioactive material continues to be emitted, the evacuation zone will expand… and should have already done so… but there is no place for residents to go… leading to an official short-term decision to keep them where they are in exchange for an elevated rate in long-term health problems.
Further, it is likely that any health problems with workers at the reactors are being kept quiet to avoid negative reactions.
My very rough prediction based on current information and lacking any unexpected event or miraculous solution is…
…about 10 people will die within 3 months of radiation exposure and there will be a generation-long unpopulated area of around 40km radius due to government restriction and public distrust which will displace more than 150,000 people.
If the current reactionary management of this disaster makes a misstep, things could be much worse. If they bring it to a rapid conclusion, they might be a little better.
From watching the situation, it seems they are managing by trial and error… leading me to believe the chance of making things worse is high… and gets higher the longer this drags out.
Of course, I am talking out my a$$ here… ignoring the "experts" and using only my observation of what is happening and a quick analysis of the available numbers along with an understanding of how governments think and what has historically happened in similar situations.
As I am not sure of my predictions, I promise I won't get shiitty with anyone who disagrees and clearly explains why.
Anybody care to pick apart my analysis?
10:00 am on April 23rd, 2011 33
Chickenhead, I don't think there is a person on Earth who could argue that the Japanese governmental & Tokyo Electric authorities haven't downplayed & covered up this disaster. If there is anybody who thinks that the Japanese have handled this appropriately are f'ing stupid. One good thing as compared to Chernobyl is that the containment domes have kept a lot of the radiation in. In Chernobyl a lot more radiation was released. You said in your comment #27 that the number of people effected will be greater than Chernobyl and this is of course true in that the population density of Japan is far more than the population density of the Ukraine. I've seen photos of children born near Chernobyl after their disaster who literally looked like monsters, hopefully the amount of radiation released at Fukushima wont be nearly that high. While the Japanese are obviously playing catch-up here I think with the greater technical sophistication of both the Fukushima plant & the Japanese engineers, the international help being received, & the experience of both Chernobyl & TMI that the Japanese can get a handle on this thing in several months according to their plan. You may be right that the longer that this thing drags out that the chance for a major f-up is high but I also think that with all the expertise & the attention focused on this disaster that they will find a way to muddle through.
3:46 am on April 27th, 2011 34
I have been running some simulations on Fukushima based on past trends… centered more on actions and events than released information and statistics which mostly seem to be false and under-reported.
No matter how I approach it, everything seems to converge on a traumatic event happening at Fukushima within a week or two.
I suspect they are solving immediate and pressing problems due to necessity… but are setting themselves up for catastrophic failure in a longer term… and they know it… but there is little they can do but delay a terrible inevitability.
Watch closely for unusual activity… quietly-urgent evacuations, reduction of on-site personnel, delivery of unusual equipment… etc.
I can't say for sure… but the indications are strong enough to go out on this limb and I wanted to document it here in a public place for my own future reference.
4:17 am on April 27th, 2011 35
I blame GE…
5:09 am on April 27th, 2011 36
"If there is anybody who thinks that the Japanese have handled this appropriately are f’ing stupid."
Does that include white Otakus?
http://www.japanprobe.com
9:08 pm on May 16th, 2011 37
There is a link on Drudge that the Japanese found out that the reactor had a partial meltdown within 16 hours of the earthquake that they have just discovered. They also found that the original plan for cooling down the reactor won’t work because the melted uranium has burned holes through the containment vessel, the authorities don’t want that radioactive water going back to the sea. They found 3000 tons of water below the containment vessel around some pipes. They will have to find another way to decontaminate the radioactive water.