By Kushibo has a good posting up about how the conventional wisdom in the media of Kim Jong-un becoming the next ruler of North Korea is in fact not a done deal. Read the whole thing, but here is how Kushibo concludes his post:
I shall repeat for those who came late, but what’s going on here is that the speculative media in South Korea, the US, Europe, and Japan, seeking to fill a gaping chasm where information should be but isn’t, has been talking up the succession of North Korea. In the meantime, they have utterly ignored the real story, which is that China is pushing for North Korea to follow Chinese-style reforms so that North Korea can be integrated into China’s Manchurian northeast (and its ports used for Manchurian goods). [Monster Island]
As I have been saying the fact that Kim Jong-il’s oldest son Kim Jong-nam continues to speak critically of the regime and has Chinese backing is a sign to me that the Chinese are hedging their bets that if the Kim Jong-un succession doesn’t work they have a back up plan in place with Kim Jong-nam. His outspokenness has distanced himself from the regime that is increasingly unpopular within North Korea. I have always believed that Kim Jong-un was the choice of the military who I feel maintains suspicions of Chinese intentions and thus find Kim Jong-nam unacceptable to succeed his father.
If Kim Jong-un is just considered more of the same from the Kim regime, people within North Korea who have over the years been quite stoic about their situation may show increasing signs of frustration with the regime. This may cause the regime elite to decide after Kim Jong-il is gone that Kim Jong-nam with Chinese backing may be a better option.
If Kim Jong-nam ever did become North Korea’s leader and implements Chinese economic reforms that would actually be a good thing for North Korea, however like Kushibo points out this could also be an opportunity for China to more completely control North Korea by forcing the signing of long term business contracts and deployment of troops into North Korea, which is reportedly already beginning to happen. The South Koreans are in no position to protest large Chinese troop deployments into North Korea considering the large US troop presence in South Korea. This is could be considered another rationale why the US ground troop presence in South Korea should be withdrawn.
Anyway I believe that if we see the new CFC (Chinese Forces Chosun) formed then unification between North & South Korea may never happen.
3:07 pm on April 9th, 2011 1
Would North Koreans rather be dominated by Chinese or by South Koreans?
3:25 pm on April 9th, 2011 2
It's clear they chose the Chinese about 60 years ago.
4:58 pm on April 9th, 2011 3
Unification is pretty much a pipe dream, anyway. The younger generations of South Koreans don't want to pay for it. Can you blame them? They've been led down that "rosy path" too many times and all they got stuck with was the tab. The lies of the South Korean left have burned too many people.
7:08 pm on April 9th, 2011 4
Glans, South Korea and China are worlds apart when it comes to how much freedom they grant their citizens. North Koreans would probably fare much better under South Korean rule, though it won't be a picnic, and I hope they would realize that. (In fact, I think some are so loath to be ruled by China that they would take up arms and engage in a protracted separatist campaign were China to ever formally annex North Korea.)
7:18 pm on April 9th, 2011 5
ArchieB, I don't think it's any more of a pipe dream than German unification was in, say, 1985. It's going to happen or not happen whether we like it or not, as Seoul (and its American and Japanese allies) will have no control over whatever events lead to it or away from it.
And while you're right that the younger generation is scared of paying for it, there is enough 애국/나라사랑 drilled into their heads that should the situation present itself, they will step up. Sort of like how Americans might not want to go to war, but they'll step up and support a war in Afghanistan if a symbol of America is destroyed.
The lies and distortions of the chinboistas on the left are holding less and less sway. The sinking of the Ch'ŏnan had doubters but the shelling of Yŏnpyŏng-do swung things over quite a bit, so I don't think that's a factor.
So right now, plenty of potential support but lots of ambivalence. But if North Korea collapses, and especially if China tries to make a move, ambivalence will be swept away by a tsunami of 애국/나라사랑-driven support for reunification and territorial integrity.
China had better be aware of that.
9:29 pm on April 9th, 2011 6
East Germany was a million times better off than the norKs and it still almost broke West Germany.
* In relative terms, North Korea's economy is currently worse than that of East Germany was in 1990. The income per capita ratio (PPP) was about 3:1 in Germany (US$25,000 for West, about US$8,500 for East).[38][39] The ratio is about 17:1 in Korea (US$29,791 for South, US$1,800 for North).[40]
* While at the moment of the German reunification the East German population (around 17,000,000) was about a third of the West German (more than 60,000,000), the North Korean population (around 22,700,000) is currently around a half of the South Korean (around 48,600,000).
* The North Korean population is far more culturally distinct and isolated than the East German population was in the late 1980s. Unlike in East Germany, North Koreans generally cannot receive foreign broadcasting or read foreign publications. Germany was divided for 44 years and did not have border clashes between the two sides. By comparison, the Koreas have been divided for over 60, and hostilities have flared over the years.
Germany did not have a civil war that resulted in millions of casualties.
There are many differences.
12:37 am on April 10th, 2011 7
It's obvious reading all the GI's like Laport, Archieb, and others, Americans do not want Korean unification. They constantly spew out negative vibes, and predict failure and misery. Because that's what they are secretly wishing for – failure for Koreans so that Koreans would be on our knees.
Well I got news for you Americans. That's not going to happen because when the crisis hits Koreans, we rally around and we become one, and we overcome.
We don't bash and loot, and try to take something for nothing, like you guys do.
3:00 am on April 10th, 2011 8
That statement has the underlying supposition that Americans actually care about Korea in the first place. I know you think Korea is a "big player" in the world and a lot of people around the world actually pay attention to Korea and care about what is happening there.
But the fact is – Korea isn't much more than a pimple on China, the US, Europe, or Japan's ass.
But you already knew that…
4:41 am on April 10th, 2011 9
There are differences, but also opportunities.
Right now a great deal of South Korean economic might is channeled into China in foreign investment. No doubt much of that will be channeled into North Korea instead. That also underscores that there is a relevant developmental model in China, something Germany couldn’t readily utilize. Germany operated on a social welfare state model, while South Korea operated on a cheap labor for export model that can be revised were the Koreas to reunite.
Also, I think North Koreans are much more clued in to what’s happening in South Korea than we might imagine (through DVDs, etc.). And while there is a cultural gap, North Korea is still a Confucian-style hierarchical state, not too far from its southern neighbor in that regard, while East Germany became more like the USSR than a Germanized state.
I’m cautiously optimistic. It will be challenging, difficult, costly, and fraught with tension, but at some point I’m confident it will be hailed as Korean Economic Miracle 2.0.
7:08 am on April 10th, 2011 10
Tom #8, You're dead wrong! With the US going broke, in debt up to our eyeballs, fighting THREE WARS, believe me if we could hasten Korean unification under the Republic of Korea we would be out of there so fast that we would cause a cyclone. Even the Red Chinese seem to understand that the current NK regime is just unsustainable. After KJI dies they would probably prefer a regime that would institute Red Chinese type economic reforms but the NK economy maybe to f'ed up to allow that to happen. I think the Red Chinese would be ok with NK absorbed into SK as so long as US troops remained south of the former DMZ with the possible exception of US troops temporarily helping to bring humanitarian assistance to the north. If you really think that the US wants to continue to spend billions keeping US forces in the ROK then you don't understand that Americans are fed up with out of control spending. After watching what happened to the Soviets (and the US) in Afghanistan & what happened to the US in Vietnam I don't think the Red Chinese want to be responsible for North Korea.
7:16 am on April 10th, 2011 11
Guitard (#9), I realize you're just engaging in a knee-jerk reaction to Tom's baiting, but it is becoming clearer and clearer that folks in the United States are paying attention to North Korea and the Korean Peninsula in general. For good reasons and bad reasons, a lot more people pay attention and they do "actually care."
7:22 am on April 10th, 2011 12
Tom Langley wrote:
This is already happening at Beijing's behest. I suspect Beijing may allow the Kim dynasty to continue, with Kim Jong-un as a mere figurehead, but only if North Korea agreed to reforms and economic integration.
That's been my prescription as well.
8:49 am on April 10th, 2011 13
Tom, you may already have given your evaluation of the Glans Plan for Korea, but I missed it. Here's the Plan:
1. PRC stays out.
2. ROK annexes DPRK.
3. USA gets out.
What do you think?
8:52 am on April 10th, 2011 14
Glans, your plan is too idealistic and too unrealistic. Why does the PRC stay out? Is Korea (and Japan) safe from the territorial ambitions of its neighbors with the US gone?
Better for the US to stay in a unified Korea (and Japan) and have UniKo and Japan deputized in other areas (e.g., patrolling sea lanes, etc.).
9:19 am on April 10th, 2011 15
Kushibo #12, Great minds think alike, lol!
9:32 am on April 10th, 2011 16
Guys, we'll only know how things will go once Kim Jong il has finally kicked the bucket. "Chinese-style reforms", a traditional North-Korean hand-down, Kim Jong Eun or Kim Jong Nam…it's all just speculation.
9:38 am on April 10th, 2011 17
Teadrinker, the "Chinese-style reforms" (more specifically, northeastern China-style reforms and integration with northeastern China's economy) is already happening. And it appears the KCNA is expressing support for it.
A good question is whether the US should hold its nose and engage economically with North Korea as a reward to Pyongyang for reforming its economy.
10:05 am on April 10th, 2011 18
"Tom, you may already have given your evaluation of the Glans Plan for Korea, but I missed it. Here’s the Plan:
1. PRC stays out.
2. ROK annexes DPRK.
3. USA gets out.
What do you think?"
I have a better ideal.
1. USA gets out.
2. PRC stays out.
3. ROK annexes DPRK.
4. New United ROK cooperates with China against enemy Uncle Sam.
11:04 am on April 10th, 2011 19
Ohh you mean reevaluating the currency and restricting the amount of money people were allowed to turn in, THOSE kinds of "Chinese reforms".
NK today is the same as NK when KJI took power. It will be the same until KJI dies or is otherwise removed from power. That is why there is so much speculation about who the next head-honcho will be. "Dear Leader" has supreme power, his word is law, his farts joyful declarations. If Dear Leader wants someone dead, their dead, end of story. He holds complete control of the military, there is no arbitration process when he speaks and you don't agree.
Basically any "Reform" won't happen until the current Dear Leader is gone. This is because any significant "reform" would have to mean that Dear Leader was wrong about something, and in NK Dear Leader is never, ever, ~ever~ wrong. To say he is wrong is tantamount to challenging the government, because Dear Leader ~is~ the government. Anyone who challenges the government must not be loyal to that government and therefor can not be trusted and must die.
That is the thought process applied within NK. We can stand out here in our comfortable chairs and talk all the internet smack we want to. Our lives are not at risk from one of Dear Leaders farts. The one thing that ~every~ self proclaimed NK expert has in common is that they've all been wrong.
11:38 am on April 10th, 2011 20
someotherguy wrote:
No, not at all. Try following a link or two.
About the currency obliteration, I was one of the first on it back in 2009, and I said it may well end up being the tipping point against support for the regime, not just among the peasantry but among the rank-and-file party members in the provinces. This was not a Chinese reform at all.
You're off on several points. First of all, Pyongyang does admit past policies were failures, including the aforementioned currency reform. It does this through scapegoating, usually, but it does happen.
Second, China is above the fray when it comes to the politics of blame in Pyongyang. Moreover, it controls the purse strings and provides a lifeline. That's why China can and, belatedly, does try to push reform. They do this for two primary reasons. First, they don't want North Korea as a whole or the regime specifically collapsing on them suddenly. Secondly, they are seeing Chinese development and control of the port at Rajin/Rasŏn as a way to boost the economy of China's landlocked northeastern Chinese provinces.
I don't know if I would call myself a North Korea expert, but I challenge you to show me where my humble predictions have all been wrong. I may end up eating my words, but the above post of mine which is the kernel for GI Korea's post is my own against-the-grain prediction continuing to be valid.
I will tell you where I've been wrong on North Korea, though. When I was a college student I made a bet that reunification would occur within five years of Kim Ilsung's death. Clearly, I was way off.
11:44 am on April 10th, 2011 21
#18 And you think that Japan will just sit by and allow it's greatest ally to be ganged up on knowing that they are just a sea stone's throw away from the conflict. Also more importantly knowing that they will become a target also? If that happaned then the U.S. would be forced to lift the ban on Japan not having its own standing army. In sooner time that thought you will have the Emperor's descendants at full capability of reclaiming their former reputation.
11:46 am on April 10th, 2011 22
But in all honesty, The U.S. and ROK are more close than you think Tom. Thank goodness that the people actually making the decisions do not have you in the war room giving suggestions. Or mauybe if they did you would be laughed out of it.
11:46 am on April 10th, 2011 23
"Teadrinker, the “Chinese-style reforms” (more specifically, northeastern China-style reforms and integration with northeastern China’s economy) is already happening."
Really? The currency reform which effectively bankrupted private business owner sure doesn't look like anything China has been doing in recent years.
11:48 am on April 10th, 2011 24
"Pyongyang does admit past policies were failures…"
By blaming a few scapegoats. Fact is, the damage was already done.
11:57 am on April 10th, 2011 25
#21 Though we "helped " write the Japanese constitution. The US is not preventing the Japanese from having a standing army. The Japanese themselves can decide to do so at any time. All they must do is change their constitution (and deal with possible political repercussions in the region). The whole standing army issue is rather silly any way. The Nipponese have a very capable and modern military force (albeit small) in the Self Defense Forces. I have worked with them numerous times over the years and found them to be quite professional.
12:03 pm on April 10th, 2011 26
Tom 18 and I agree on the essential step: ROK annexes DPRK.
12:12 pm on April 10th, 2011 27
teadrinker wrote:
Teadrinker, surely your reading comprehension is good enough not to fall into the rhetorical trap laid by someotherguy.
No one but him has said here that the currency obliteration was a Chinese reform. To my knowledge, it was not at all. It was a domestically produced initiative designed to decimate and hobble the private markets. Quite the opposite of Chinese reforms.
Since last year, as I linked in the original post and in #12, China has been having Pyongyang's leadership schooled in Chinese reforms. I believe Beijing has made this a condition of continued support. I think it's also behind the Capital Mystery Tour.
Yes, the damage is done, and it also makes things slow to change and it causes KJI to be surrounded by yes men.
BUT… it is still true that even while KJI is in power North Korea can and does change direction. Sometimes. It's a myth that "any 'Reform' won’t happen until the current Dear Leader is gone," or at least that it can't. China is pushing for it to happen already, and KJI (a) may have no choice and/or (b) may see change as the most effective way for his dynasty to stay in power, seeing as how they face massive disgruntlement that did not exist in years past.
2:51 pm on April 10th, 2011 28
HERE is where I layout some of the reasons I'm cautiously optimistic about the pos-reunification era, even though I think China is poised to block it.
4:12 pm on April 10th, 2011 29
Sorry Kushibo. The very best scenario I can see is it would be a fark all mess. (former) norK's would be at best treated as second class citizens by their wonderful southern Brothers. The SE Asians and Africans would not be needed anymore for factory work. Many of the workers in low paying jobs in South Korea would be displaced. It's a recipe for disaster even assuming the South has the will and/or the funds to make a go of it. Human nature is a bitch.
A possible solution might be for the south to maintain the North as some kind of separate special autonomous zone until the de-Kimification, re-education and economics could at least be brought up to some semblance of at least 3rd world functionality. These people have been left behind in all areas including health. The disparities are too great to overcome in a short amount of time. It might take a generation, or more, for the two countries to fully reunite and integrate and there would still be problems. The road to hell is paved with both good and bad intentions. Hopefully, whoever is running the show when it goes down will think with their head rather than their heart, have political will and has a great deal of discipline – and a Teflon, Kevlar and asbestos suit.
7:07 pm on April 10th, 2011 30
#25, Leon, I knew when I posted that, the United States in no way "figurative or literall" has any right to tell Nippon if it can change it's own Legislation. However we know that the ROK and DPRK would ever side with the PRC as Tom wishes, Washington would finally give blessings to Tokyo is Seoul were ever soo stupid to.
7:10 pm on April 10th, 2011 31
Stupid enough to join with China and North Korea against the U.S. that is. Until then, Japan would never self reinstate the prior conditions.However Nippon is literally willing to scratch the itch if it occured.
7:23 pm on April 10th, 2011 32
Leon LaPorte (#29), I advocate a sort of flexible segregation much as you outlined. Not only to prevent a massive influx to the south but also to protect naïve new property owners up north.
The ROK government should go in with a quick and effective Marshal Plan to develop infrastructure up there before people get itchy about coming south.
8:07 pm on April 10th, 2011 33
"BUT… it is still true that even while KJI is in power North Korea can and does change direction. Sometimes. It’s a myth that “any ‘Reform’ won’t happen until the current Dear Leader is gone,” or at least that it can’t. China is pushing for it to happen already, and KJI (a) may have no choice and/or (b) may see change as the most effective way for his dynasty to stay in power, seeing as how they face massive disgruntlement that did not exist in years past."
China isn't pushing for reforms, it's pushing for a greater piece of the pie that it already has. Don't confuse greed with altruism.
8:11 pm on April 10th, 2011 34
Teadrinker, if you got the impression that I considered China's actions in North Korea to be altruistic and not primarily about maintaining control over North Korea as a buffer zone, then you have misread me.
9:53 pm on April 10th, 2011 35
"The SE Asians and Africans would not be needed anymore for factory work. Many of the workers in low paying jobs in South Korea would be displaced. It’s a recipe for disaster even assuming the South has the will and/or the funds to make a go of it"
Why is this a disaster? I think it would be wonderful.
7:23 pm on April 12th, 2011 36
I'm still trying to think how Kushibo can keep lying to himself on this. Next thing you know he'll try to explain the submarine incident as a "misunderstanding". Then the whole shelling of an island was "western provocation". That there are lots of "reforms" with happy singing nK citizens.
While anyone with half a brain can see that absolutely nothing has changed in 20+ years. They do the same sh!t day in and day out, the people are starving, the country is corrupted and the leaders are the very definition of tyrannical. KJI rules through the military and has complete authority. Western leftist college kids might not understand the grim reality of being a dictator. One doesn't walk up and become a dictator by a bunch of people agreeing with you, your not elected a dictator. Not you become a dictator by killing anyone who opposes you. And before you kill them you rape and behead their family in-front of them and everyone else in the most painful and inhumane way possible. You do this so as to set an example and let the others know your not fcking around.
Hitler was bad, KJI is much much worse. The only one worse the KJI was his father KIS who not only was more ruthless, he was politically savvy able to play Russia and China off each other for years leading up to the Korean way, and keep playing them after he failed.