By Via a reader tip from Glans comes this latest update on the growing tensions in Southeast Asia over te Spratly Islands:
China warned the United States on Wednesday not to let Southeast Asian countries drag it into ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea, saying Washington should instead counsel its allies to show restraint.
“I believe the individual countries are playing with fire,” Cui Tiankai, China’s vice foreign minister, told a small gathering of correspondents Wednesday. “I hope the fire doesn’t reach the United States.”
The Philippines, one of a half dozen claimants to a chain of disputed islands in the South China Sea, effectively rejected that warning Thursday, appealing to the United States to clarify the coverage of two countries’ mutual defense treaty and to provide Manila with naval vessels to help it patrol the area and fend off Chinese incursions. [Washington Post]
For those that don’t know China has recently claimed the entire South China Sea as their own territory. To put this into perspective it would be like the United States claiming the entire Gulf of Mexico or Japan claiming the entire Sea of Japan, East Sea, Sea That Cannot Be Named as its own territory. That is utterly ridiculous and this claim by the Chinese should be viewed in the same light. What makes this issue even more ridiculous is that China is claiming these islands that are right off of the coast of the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia. The below map provides a good overview of the claims:
China has also bullying another US ally Japan trying to gobble up territory from them as well. Let’s not forget how the Chinese have been bullying South Korea and even murdered one of their coast guard personnel. These land grabs seems to be a coordinated Chinese attempt to intimidate these countries and at the same time discredit the US’s security guarantees with the nations it is allies with. I just don’t see how the US can sit this out and allow the Chinese government to lay claim to the entire South China Sea which is key transit route for world trade. With the US economy down and the US military tied up in other areas the Chinese must think now is the ideal time to improve their geostrategic positioning in east Asia and are taking full advantage of it.
10:10 am on June 24th, 2011 1
The red dragon is waking and the Golden Eagle falling asleep.
11:34 am on June 24th, 2011 2
Does America have the National Will and Money for a High Intensity naval conflict?
11:37 am on June 24th, 2011 3
http://www.amazon.com/Tom-Clancy-SSN/dp/0671576119
It isn’t a surprise though.
2:07 pm on June 24th, 2011 4
This isn’t new. The dispute over the Spratly Islands flares up every 15~20 years or so. It’s just China flexing, but doesn’t seem to be a major issue for them right now. Yes, China is a leading consumer of oil resources in the world right now, but even if they successfully asserted a claim to whatever oil reserves that might be under those islands the time it would take to explore for and extract it would not be of any practical benefit to them right now.
Any bluster coming out of China now or in the coming months should be taken in the context of the fact that they are due for a Central Committee leadership change in November next year. I am also sure they are advised to do the same when considering comments from the USA in light of our elections at the same time.
5:15 pm on June 24th, 2011 5
The Philippines wants the USA military to protect it against China? Wow. The worm has turned. Remember the protests by the people in the Philippines about “Yanqi, go home” a few decades ago? Yes, people of the Philippines, you got your wish. The USA pulled out of the Philippines. Now live with the consequences.
5:16 pm on June 24th, 2011 6
It will get worse as more rural and urban Chinese begin voicing their grievances.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/china-insider-sees-revolution-brewing-20100226-p92d.html
5:39 pm on June 24th, 2011 7
China is worried that the people will see that the Emperor has No Clothes .. and want a piece of the pie.
10:53 pm on June 24th, 2011 8
“Does America have the National Will and Money for a High Intensity naval conflict?”
High intensity naval conflict with who? China has very little ability to project power beyond its borders. Neither sea nor air. I’m just curious. what do you mean?
12:04 am on June 25th, 2011 9
The Philippines was foolish to boot out the United States, but they had a lot of issues to work out, including the han over the Philippine-American War nine decades earlier and the resulting tens of thousands, or possibly hundreds of thousands, of deaths.
Maybe Vietnam will end up giving the US use of some bases to help project into the region. At any rate, South Korea and Japan took notice of what happens vis-à-vis China when there’s a vacuum left by the US. I just hope we don’t all end up in a serious war of some kind just to learn that lesson which everyone should have known already.
12:44 am on June 25th, 2011 10
I think the volcano had more to do with the final pullout of US troops than the Philippine protests. At least that is what it seemed like from the news reports those years…
1:03 am on June 25th, 2011 11
I’m talking about the Philippine Senate. Had it been left up to the people, the bases would have stayed.
1:26 am on June 25th, 2011 12
Q: Why did the Filipino cross the road?
A: Because the ruling elite got richer and more powerful by convincing him that the other side of the road, which was covered in broken glass and raw sewage, would satisfy his self-destructive sense of pride, erase his crippling class envy, and give more “power” to the people.
Q: Why did he stay there?
A: He still believes it.
2:58 am on June 25th, 2011 13
Corruption in China: ‘Despite repeated campaigns to stamp out corruption, it remains rife and is one of the most incendiary sources of public anger,’ says Jaime FlorCruz. He has a weekly column at CNN.
5:37 am on June 25th, 2011 14
#8: I’m saying that if the US got involved with the Spratlys because the other navys involved suck compared to China’s they’d have to send ships within range of some of China’s cruise missile equipped ships, aircraft, and land based platforms while Vietnam, for example, uses one of our old World War II tank landing ships they captured during the fall of Saigon to get troops to occupy parts of the spratlys. So, if China got enough missiles fired off because the range would be so close and had a capability to Jam Aegis systems we don’t know about then the resulting damage to the fleet could result in drawing us in more to the area and expanding the conflict to Taiwan. It’s a possibility. Also, considering the Chinese have been hacking the crap out of DOD computer systems, they might be able to find the fleet first. By high intensity conflict I mean that you’d have US ships actually getting sunk in a more conventional style conflict in which you could lose hundreds of lives in a day and destroy billions of dollars in equipment on the US and ASEAN coaltion side, rather than scores of lives and millions of dollars in equipment like low intensity conflicts – NATO in Afghanistan, coalition in Iraq. I can only find one overlay on google right now, so, if you want evidence for ranges I’d have to make my own overlays.
5:42 am on June 25th, 2011 15
I’ve seen it said here over the years about the Philippines kicking US troops out…That is what I’m referring to. It isn’t how I remember it occurring at the time.
My impression from the news was that it was much ado about nothing – that it was another periodic venting of spleen that was going to pass — but then the massive volcanic eruption happened and the bases were buried and the US decided they were not as vital as they had been saying loudly the previous years.
That is what I remember most — listening to government and military people on the news saying the bases were absolutely vital – the volcano buried them – and not too long after, we were out….
5:56 am on June 25th, 2011 16
#15: I seem to recall the Philippine government voted us out. A new government got formed after an election (or however they do that over there) which rescinded the eviction but by that time Pinatubo blew its top and we had already reconfigured our strategic plans.
On another note, I have absolutely no sympathy for the Hanoi regime when it comes to the Spratlys. They more or less relinquished their interests to the property while they were busy destroying the legitimate Vietnamese government which did defend interests in the islands to the point for shooting it out with the Chinese in the early 70s. IMHO, its too late for these gangsters to change their minds.
7:51 am on June 25th, 2011 17
What can the US do except confront the Chinese with aircraft carriers and nukes and Obama just isn’t a “send in the aircract carriers and nukes” kind of guy.
8:08 am on June 25th, 2011 18
When the Navy left Subic they were so irritated at the Philippines, they took many millions of dollars worth of high-quality machinery… such as an ultra-massive lathe for ship propeller shafts… and dumped it all off the edge of the continental plate just for spite.
A little tear forms in the corner of my eye when I think of that.
The Philippines brings many of their own problems on themselves by being too proud in the short term to do what is best in the long term.
Come to think of it, that pretty much goes for every place polluted with Spanish culture.
9:20 am on June 25th, 2011 19
That is my memory of it too. I got the impression from news reports that the US was just going to wait it out like the Philippine government was going through a spasm that would most likely pass in time — until the volcano blew.
I do clearly remember how the government kept arguing strongly in the media that the bases were vital to the region and to American global strategy.
But it changed overnight after the volcano.
12:36 pm on June 25th, 2011 20
Why, ChickenHead 18, can modern problems really be traced to the colonial era? Who’d a thunk it?
usinkorea 19, I guess a base that’s been trashed by a volcano just isn’t awesome any more.
Well, China is rising, and not necessarily in a good way. Its neighbors, and we, have to decide what we’re going to do about it.
1:39 pm on June 25th, 2011 21
Glans,
Many modern problems can be traced to colonial eras.
…but, in keeping with your previous thoughts, that is not an excuse to keep holding onto this hideous cultural baggage as a _fill_in_the_blank_-American.
There was a time when “foreigners” came to America to escape the misery of the past and start a new life as a free American.
Now, far too many people come to America and proudly keep many of the destructive habits, values, and cultural traits, which made the place they fled from so miserable.
Further, they expect America to celebrate this diversity… and, in some cases, make special accommodations for it.
As I recall, you blamed poor school performance on past colonization.
I propose that there is a difference between those living mono-culturally in a previously-colonized country and those who have been in America for many generations and have been given constant opportunity to be socialized.
1:53 pm on June 25th, 2011 22
18 you nailed that one!
15 USinKorea, you’re close. I was in Angeles outside Clark when Pinatubo erupted.
The joke down in the ville was that after the eruption the new bid for rent of the bases was now one dollar a year for the next ten.
The Philippine Government is/was highly corrupt. (like everyone doesn’t know that)
I don’t know the exact number of times that the US had agreed to the price set by the PI. But each time the PI would raise the demanded amount. Then Pinatubo. Then the typhoon hit. Double whammy!
I remember the Religious leaders were so happy. No more Prostitution in the PI. Yeah right. All the American jobs went away.
Prostitution came back of course. Untrained females need to do something to feed their babies.
The PI (still) has not managed to do much with the airfield. But the Bars are a rocking. (watch your back, the cops are corrupt) Police Station #4 comes to mind.
Give the Philippines NOTHING.
The country isn’t worth it. I believe it would be an improvement if the Chinese took it over. The hotel in Samar that I stay at is owned and operated by a Chinese guy. It’s the only thing in Samar that looks civilized.
Chinese genes would only improve the stock.
2:21 pm on June 25th, 2011 23
Retired GI wrote:
Chinese merchants may do a great job, but the Chinese military and government, I don’t think so. Unfortunately, were the Chinese to take over, it would be the latter running the show.
Come to think of it, though, aren’t most of the Philippine economic elite ethnic Chinese? If so, I’m not so sure how good a job they’re doing with that country.
South Korea and Japan have mostly kept the Chinese out, and they’re on top of the stats. North Korea has been in China’s sphere and they’re a mess.
2:50 pm on June 25th, 2011 24
ChickenHead 21, you’re right, the English settlers set a fine example of assimilating the existing culture, and of giving up their own customs, beliefs, and language.
5:09 pm on June 25th, 2011 25
23 Kushibo I liked that comment. It was accurated to a point.
I don’t see things getting any worse for the PI if China took over operations.
At least the Chinese would move forward. Current leadership just goes round and round.
They did manage to make a nice highway from Manila to Angeles city. Got to make sure the party dogs can get to party central. Traffic still blows in Manila. Watch out for the motorbikes with two guys and no side car. The guy in back is packing. An expat was killed in angeles that way last year. But then again, he should have known better than to be out walking that time of the morning.
Don’t give money to the beggers. Don’t talk to any females on the street. They are all underage — even if they are over 21. Cops will work you for bribe money.
Manila Marriott is nice. They have security like any good airport would have. Abit pricey but close to airport. If you’re Anglo don’t walk around alone!
I think the Chinese would do a much better job in all areas.
7:02 pm on June 25th, 2011 26
What about the Filipina prostitutes?
7:16 pm on June 25th, 2011 27
Overlays should be ready tommorow.
8:30 pm on June 25th, 2011 28
The only thing PI has worth saving.
9:16 pm on June 25th, 2011 29
Everybody has own interest. China has started to use their muscles. Who can stop them? US needs their mercy not to pull out their invest from US.
6:33 am on June 26th, 2011 30
OK, so I ran the ranges on Chinese aircraft assuming that the nearest airbase they can use is Lushui where the P-3 Orion incident of April 2001 occured – Hainan island. Anyway, you have to travel about 645 nm from Hainan to the Spratleys, so that means China has to use Flankers and Badgers for any kind of air power, and they would need aerial refueling assets in the air. Taiwan, the Phillipines, and Vietnam have airfields in the Spratleys so they could provide local security with much more time fighting versus fueling. Also, Chinese aircraft have to fly past almost all of Vietnam and about 4 major Vietnamese airbases on the way out to the Spratly islands. So, given the airfields ASEAN has and the lack of a Chinese airfield on the Spratly islands, China needs to capture an airfield early in the fight and commit their better aircraft and refueling assets. It takes a little more than two hours traveling at 300 knots to reach the Spratly Islands without getting intercepted by Vietnamese aircraft. So there is plenty of warning time. Conclusion: I think Leon LaPorte has a very good point until the Chinese build a real airfield and dock facilities in the Spratly Islands. However, the mischief reef incident shows that China is kind of wary of setting up an airfield and dock for now, even though they want to and say they will…
5:44 pm on June 26th, 2011 31
The Chinese are several generations behind the US in aircraft capability. As for actual Navy… yeah that’s a joke. Chinese don’t have any blue water capability, they can stir up sh!t locally but against a real navy they would lose. They have a long long way to go before they can field anything that resembles a threat to the USA military wise.
And this is all posturing as there won’t be any direct conflict between the USA and China. The worst is some sort of proxy war involving smaller nations as the official fighting entities. And for those blow hard’s who will post some sort of anti-USA or anti-Chinese rhetoric. There won’t be a fight because nobody wants nuclear war, it’s neither profitable nor winnable for either side. Some sort of protracted Navy conflict between the USA and China will end in a Nuclear War. We must assume that if either side starts to lose and be put in a bad position they would use nukes on the winning side, who will anticipate this and initiate nukes before they start to win.
12:25 am on July 21st, 2011 32
China and the ASEAN countries have agreed to a draft plan for resolving tensions in the South China Sea, CNN reports from Jakarta.