By STRATFOR this week warns of a possible rise of anti-foreigner sentiment in China due to political calculations currently going on within the Chinese government:
STRATFOR sources in China have noted an increase in the popularity of the “Red Culture” campaign and have expressed concern that xenophobia could be on the rise. Consequently, we thought it apt to discuss personal safety for foreigners in case a trigger event turns nationalist or nostalgic sentiment into minor incidents of violence or protests.
The Red Culture campaign is about the promotion of Maoist revolutionary thought in word, song and imagery. Its revival is credited to a degree to Chongqing Party Secretary Bo Xilai, who hopes to use it to garner support for his bid to serve on the Politburo. The campaign has led to growing nostalgia in China for the days when Mao Zedong was leader, a trend that was bolstered by the Communist Party of China’s 90th anniversary July 1.
It should be noted that nationalism and the Red Culture campaign are distinct; China’s national identity is based on a long history, not just the years under Mao. There are fears that nostalgia for the Maoist period, a time when China was closed to foreigners, could become widespread. This in turn could become intertwined with nationalism, leading to a spike in xenophobic sentiment and even violence.
Previous periods of elevated nationalism have seen isolated instances of violence, particularly targeted at foreigners. Such incidents usually have required a specific trigger, such as the dispute with Japan over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, the Western protests against the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the 2001 U.S. spy plane incident and the 1999 NATO bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade. In all of these cases, perceived foreign meddling led to outbreaks of Chinese nationalism and xenophobic sentiment.
Another factor decreasing the likelihood of xenophobic violence is insecurity among China’s leadership resulting from uncertainty about how to handle social inequality resulting from a rapidly growing economy. The Chinese government has a strong interest in avoiding incidents that could spawn larger unrest. This was evidenced by Shanghai authorities’ crackdown June 22 on pro-Mao petitioners calling for the prosecution of an academic who criticized Mao.
Despite the nostalgia, the possibility of a new Cultural Revolution, during which violence based on Maoist ideology nearly destroyed the country, is unlikely. But very localized incidents, when disaffected Chinese blame foreigners for their plight, are more likely. This can lead to small protests, local fights or disputes, and particularly threatening situations where foreigners are left feeling unwelcome or even in danger.
Travelers to China should familiarize themselves with strategies for safe traveling, something that would become especially important if ideological debate in China spins out of control or Chongqing’s test case for the renewed ideology spreads to the rest of the country. Maintaining situational awareness and local relationships to keep one abreast of any incidents in neighborhoods or the wider city in which one is traveling is recommended. It is also good to avoid train stations and other areas with high concentrations of loiterers, popular bar districts where drunken crowds collect, and any rallies or large, organized groups of people.
Most important, in tense situations, one should always remain calm. Arguing or aggravating a situation only increases the potential for something to go wrong. These tips may seem like an overreaction, but all of these situations have a higher potential for a dispute to get out of hand.
12:38 am on July 10th, 2011 1
I never heard about ‘Shanghai authorities’ crackdown June 22 on pro-Mao petitioners calling for the prosecution of an academic who criticized Mao.’ Very interesting.
Meanwhile, JCS chairman Admiral Mike Mullen is visiting Beijing. He will meet with his counterpart, General Chen Bingde and other military officials, speak at a university and visit bases. He hopes to improve mil-to-mil relations and promote peaceful settlement to issues like the South China Sea. China’s military budget this year is $95G, second in the world; ours is $650G. Here’s the AP story at the Washington Post.
3:53 am on July 10th, 2011 2
The Party is so scared they will loose control of the message, and the little people will demand some actual changes. When they try so hard to control the message, suppress any speech they do not like, they have already really lost the control. They try to give the little people some things, albeit really small things, and hope they do not get the idea they should have real things. If the people find out the emperor has no clothes, it will be all over. In typical Asian fashion, the people at the top of the pyramid, are not willing to share their toys. Korea is another great example. The chaebols get richer, they call the tune, and the little people get some scraps. No wonder the average Korean wants to leave, and see previous little chance of advancement. When Koreans lead the world in suicides, is that not the ultimate decision on whether or not they see positive signs of change ? No one at the top is willing to give up anything for the good of the country. How much money do they need? Apparently even more. Korea is so many ways, is a house of cards, just waiting to collapse inwards. The government can put out all kinds of rosey predictions, but really, there is no cash to pay for things, except of course, if you are connected to the power.
4:11 am on July 10th, 2011 3
Historically, China has been by far the most xenophobic of the 3 East Asian countries, China, Korea, and Japan.
4:46 am on July 10th, 2011 4
#2, that is a crock.
Look at the Gini Index, James. The United States is right there with China in terms of differences between rich and poor. Korea, although has seen the divide grow larger in recent years, is still no where near where you guys are.
Give me a break. 
If your theories that Korea is about to collapse (typical expat wet dream) is going to really happen due to the divide, well… then you Americans have more to worry about, with your cronies in Washington and New York, working hand in hand to rob from the increasingly poor in America. My god, look at your tent cities… do you see any of that in Korea? When the Washington trillion dollar bail outs end soon (and they will have to end someday), let’s see what’s going to happen when Americans who find out their checks won’t arrive in time to feed them.
5:11 am on July 10th, 2011 5
#4,
North Korea will collapse (if China doesn’t invade it first). If South Korea is stuck dealing with the mess, it will be a huge blow to its economy.
5:19 am on July 10th, 2011 6
#5
If North Korea collapses, it will be difficult in the beginning, but Korea will be just fine, and will become much more prosperous in the long run.
4:55 pm on July 10th, 2011 7
#6,
Difficult in the beginning? More prosperous in the long run? North Korea isn’t East Germany.
7:16 pm on July 10th, 2011 8
#7, North Korea is full of rich minerals underground which have not been utilized. They can pay for the reunification and still have enough for the future generation of Koreans to prosper. Of course I know you desperately want to see Korea collapse, but that’s not going to happen my friend.
8:08 pm on July 10th, 2011 9
Tom 8, it looks like you agree with steps 2 and 3 of the Glans Plan. What about step 1? Do you agree with step 1, and can you get China to accept it?
1. PRC stays out.
2. ROK annexes DPRK.
3. USA gets out.
8:58 pm on July 10th, 2011 10
China won’t allow a pro-democracy country on its southern borders. Information can spread in and out of China far too easily if that would happen. Their current government model requires that they have a tight hold on their populations freedoms, give people just enough freedom that their everyday lives aren’t effected, but not enough for them to change anything.
9:05 pm on July 10th, 2011 11
someotherguy 10, I understand what you’re saying. I also want Tom’s opinion.
12:46 am on July 11th, 2011 12
Toms a troll and not a particularly good troll at that. The less incentive he has to come out from under his bridge the better.
1:37 am on July 11th, 2011 13
Tom’s got his own wet dreams.
4:59 am on July 11th, 2011 14
S.Korea and China is about to sign an FTA with each other. It’s only a matter of time before it goes into effect. And with the United States gradually disengaging in Korea (as many of you have also claimed), the US influence on Korean policy will wane. That means S.Korea will need to work toward becoming a neural state like Switzerland, instead of repeating US foreign policies. As long as the US is out of Korea, China does not care if Korea is united or not, because Korea by itself does not represent a threat to China.
With a powerful China propelling the Asian economic rivalry of the West, the twenty first century’s prosperity belongs to Asia.
4:19 pm on July 11th, 2011 15
Tom 14 says, ‘As long as the US is out of Korea, China does not care if Korea is united or not, because Korea by itself does not represent a threat to China.’ I would like China to think that way, but I don’t see any evidence that China does think that way. It seems to be actively supporting the continued division of Korea, even though that leaves US forces in South Korea.
5:25 pm on July 11th, 2011 16
Tom wrote:
I see homeless people in Korea ALL THE TIME.
If you actually lived in Korea – you might have a grasp on what it’s like here.
6:38 pm on July 11th, 2011 17
I didn’t say there were no homeless people in Korea, I said there are no tent cities.
9:33 pm on July 11th, 2011 18
General Chen Bingde is looking out for us. ‘I know the US is still recovering from the financial crisis, but it’s still spending so much money on its military — isn’t that placing too much pressure on the taxpayers? If the US could reduce its military spending a little, and spend more on improving the livelihood of the American people and doing more good things for the world — wouldn’t that be a better scenario?’ Steve Jiang has the scoop at CNN
10:13 pm on July 11th, 2011 19
Glans, you reveal yourself as terrifically naïve and ignorant whenever you cite the Glans Plan. There is no basis whatsoever for believing #1 would happen, and to plan for #2 and #3 as if #1 would happen is extremely dangerous in terms of potential loss of life and treasure for South Korea, the US, and its neighboring allies.
10:24 pm on July 11th, 2011 20
Tom wrote:
Tom, they are in preliminary ministerial talks, so they are not even in full-blown discussions.
They are years away from signing an FTA, and if it ever does get signed, expect anti-Chinese sentiment and fears of being overrun economically to bring out opposition from all sides. Even if signed, it is unlikely to be ratified.
Look at the opposition in Taiwan to similar economic cooperation with China for a preview. China is too cheap to allow their goods in without protection, and China is infamous for dangerous goods and unfair play when it comes to honest dealings.
Just why do you think this kind of thing didn’t happen decades ago, at least in the 1990s? South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan stay in the American sphere of influence because China scares the ¢rap out of them.
10:32 pm on July 11th, 2011 21
Tom is a 짱개 lover.
10:48 pm on July 11th, 2011 22
Language, Guitard.
10:02 pm on July 12th, 2011 23
#8,
Minerals? That’s it? Throw a meager piece of the pie to them, wave a magic wand, and all their sociological problems will be solved? North Korean society is fucked up like few others are. The end of the Kim regime won’t be enough to erase its consequences of their authoritarian rule.
10:09 pm on July 12th, 2011 24
“My god, look at your tent cities… do you see any of that in Korea? ”
Yes, quite often, unfortunately. There’s approximately 1 million homeless people in Seoul.
http://www.danielim.com/2009/02/18/sociology-of-the-homeless-in-seoul-korea/
10:27 pm on July 12th, 2011 25
1 million homeless in the Seoul area (he’s not claiming Seoul itself) sounds highly suspect. Daniel Im says he go the figure from “a local Korean who runs a homeless rehabilitation centre in Korea,” but he doesn’t question it.
The 300 around Seoul Station is plausible but seems a little high. I live near there and pass by quite a few more homeless than in other parts of the city, but I would put the count at half that. But that’s a guess based on passing by at certain times of day. When the churches run certain services (medical insurance registration, free haircuts, etc.), they get dozens, and on the cold nights you see about 100 sleeping inside the sheltered areas. 300 is plausible, but I’m skeptical.
On the other hand, I see about the same number of homeless at one park in Honolulu alone, and unlike Seoul Station, that park near Chinatown is only one of many locations throughout the city. Seoul Station is a concentration that is uncharacteristic of most of the rest of the city. And Seoul proper has ten times the population of Honolulu. No, I think you can look at most major American cities and see a far greater homeless problem than in Seoul’s cities.
But this is in part because of a lack of very cheap housing in Seoul and other South Korean cities, including old, rundown housing and a few remaining shantytown-like places. If these were eliminated, Seoul’s homeless numbers would skyrocket.
12:00 am on July 13th, 2011 26
You actually believe there are one million homeless people in Seoul alone, Teadrinker? You sure are not a tea drinker, you’re a drug drinker.
So some ESL dude with a blog claims there are one million homeless people in Seoul, it must be true. 
1:28 am on July 16th, 2011 27
The Chinese foreign ministry says Obama shouldn’t meet with the Dalai Lama. The CNN wire staff reports.
12:23 am on July 29th, 2011 28
Did China apologize? That’s what RJ Koehler says, but I can’t read the story he links to. China supposedly tried to stop a Korean salvage operation near a submerged rock but then thought better of it. Anyhow, it’s in the Marmot’s Hole.