By This is very smart by Vietnam to get the Indians involved in the South China Sea controversy:
India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said China’s recent diplomatic objection to an Indian oil company’s exploration in the South China Sea has no legal basis as the areas in question belong to Vietnam, The Hindustan Times reported Sept. 15. An MEA official said China has received an appropriate response to its objections but the issue will also be discussed during Indian External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna’s Sept. 16 visit to Vietnam. The official added that India understands China’s concerns but Delhi will operate based on its information from the Vietnamese authorities and China has been thus informed. [STRATFOR]
China is going to find it very hard to push around India compared to its smaller neighbors. Meanwhile both Vietnam and Indonesia have begun joint naval patrols in the South China Sea. It will be interesting to see what the Chinese reaction to all of this will be.
9:11 pm on September 16th, 2011 1
i sure hope world war 3 isn’t fought over a small island chain that (possibly) has oil and natural gas on it.
11:42 pm on September 16th, 2011 2
Johnny Boy,
World War 3 has already been fought.
America won, the Soviet Union lost, Red China withdrew.
It was a long and quiet war… but only a prelude to the next.
World War IV is almost upon us. The battle lines are being drawn as we speak. It will be like no other war.
Turkey is radicalizing. Iran is preparing. Pakistan is unstable. Moderate and secular regimes have been destroyed and replaced with radical and Islamic ones. The United States has given the appearance of reducing support for Israel. NATO has completed a live-fire exercise.
The global financial system is broken to such an extent that only global war will reset it… and everybody knows it…
…and only engineered global war will allow the winners and losers to be decided before it starts… so the war is being designed and scripted… and has been for a couple of decades.
As Western nations face the depth of their unmanageable debt, the inevitable global economic crisis and following social crisis can only be managed if citizens make sacrifices… and they will only make these sacrifices during real or perceived threats during wartime.
Without war, Western nations will fall and there will be anarchy… fueled by a large dependent population unwilling to sacrifice yet lacking the ability to survive in a self-sufficient world.
And many banks and corporations will fail in an unmanaged financial system reset.
So, what will happen in World War IV?
Israel will be attacked. They will fight back. NATO will help. Asymmetric warfare will see Western military attacks in the Middle East and major terrorist attacks in Europe… with enough terrorism in America to keep the population supportive of war.
A desperate Israel will eventually use nuclear weapons against surrounding nations prompting a response from Pakistan and Iran, if their fast-track program produces them in time. India may take advantage of the situation and assist Israel by attacking Pakistan.
When it is all done, the Western multinationals will pick up the profitable pieces based on the labor of those who are willing to work hard just to survive without expectations of getting ahead.
Much imaginary wealth currently in existence will evaporate in the conquered and destroyed nations… taking it off the books for Western governments and their non-stop printing presses.
The big winners will be America, Brittan, and Germany. The big losers will be Iran, Pakistan, and Syria.
But everybody will suffer.
Many countries, will be decimated… including Israel… and, strangely, France.
This will all be fueled by religious extremism on all sides and self-fulfilling prophecies of Armageddon.
And, as a side note…
The effects on Asia will start with much of China’s energy supply being cut off during this war… and a large population of angry jobless Chinese confronting a government with no easy solutions for a crumbling economy and growing civil unrest.
Sleep tight.
6:11 am on September 17th, 2011 3
chickenhead
although your theory sounds plausible, i have a more likely explanation for the great decline yet to come:
america’s perceived weaknesses in global affairs is in direct correlation to our aging action movie stars. the world is watching as sly stallone, schwarzenegger, chuck norris, and van damme are aging not so gracefully, and the world is taking note. i predict when chuck finally strokes out out on his total gym and kicks the proverbial bucket, or when stallone’s liver and kidneys finally give out from all the straight injections of hgh and bullshark sperm, or when steven seagal pulls a mama cass and chokes on a ham and cheese hoagie in a bubble bath surrounded by asian aromatherapy feng shui candles, then my friend, then we will see who decides to step up to the plate and take america on, sans the toughest s.o.b.’s in our inventory.
good try though.
6:49 am on September 17th, 2011 4
#2 That was a fun read.
While in Korea ;
Japan is radicalizing. China is preparing. NK is unstable. Moderate and secular South Korea have been destroyed and replaced with radical and Pro NKorea ones. The United States has given the appearance of reducing support for Taiwan. Russia and NK have completed a live-fire exercise.
7:42 am on September 17th, 2011 5
#2
chickenhead, what say you of the spratly islands? do you think it has the potential to be the tipping point or maybe even an event in a chain of small conflicts that finally set it all off?
#4 devmil
i see you’ve decided to go with chickenhead’s explanation of the impending doom of all mankind. too bad. i could use a few people on the geriatric action star bandwagon.
1:10 pm on September 17th, 2011 6
“chickenhead, what say you of the spratly islands?”
Perhaps a target of opportunity for China in a time of global chaos… though they will have their own domestic problems to keep them busy.
“i see you’ve decided to go with chickenhead’s explanation of the impending doom of all mankind.”
Not doom… rebirth.
Fukushima and Chernobyl put out far more radiation than a few tens of nuclear explosions will. Even terrorist dirty bombs in European cities will not be the end of the world.
The outcome will be a new political and financial system. There will be winners and losers… improvements and problems.
6:35 pm on September 17th, 2011 7
#6
“Fukushima and Chernobyl put out far more radiation than a few tens of nuclear explosions will.”
but as the human toll isn’t instantly obvious, the psychological effect on the population won’t be as bad, wouldn’t you say? also, with the reactors putting out that much radiation, aren’t genetic mutations in humans inevitable? i know mutations naturally occur and make their way through the gene pool, but i wonder if the radiation doesn’t speed up the process of human evolution, for better or for worse. (most likely worse)
10:18 pm on September 17th, 2011 8
Johnny Boy,
My thoughts on the scale of the Fukushima disaster have been made clear. Now we simply wait to see if I am right or wrong.
In related news…
World War IV is starting to roll.
The Pakistan government supported the attack on the American embassy in Afghanistan… or the public is supposed to believe that… which, either way, accomplishes the same thing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-14960725
1:52 am on September 18th, 2011 9
A Pilipino marine general, two politicians, and a beauty queen react to Chinese encroachment. This Washington Post story has a photo gallery, a graphic showing oil and gas fields, and a link to China’s 1947 map laying claim to its neighbors’ territory.
The Post also reports that the new Japanese prime minister, Noda Yoshihiko, wants to improve relations with the United States. He plans to work on arms exports and the Okinawa issue.
7:29 am on September 18th, 2011 10
#9
i feel sympathetic for the philippines. it must be terrible knowing you have no chance at conventional warfare with china, were it to come to that. i do take issue with the philippines demanding the u.s. come to their aid due to a treaty signed long ago. i seem to remember around 20 years ago the philippine government wanted u.s. forces to completely vacate the country. i know we have a small special forces presence there in the southern islands to combat islamic militants, but other than that, none that i know of. big bad china comes to town and now we’re supposed to come to the rescue? am i viewing this in the correct context or do i have my head screwed on wrong? anything that i am missing?
i wonder how uncle sam will play this one. if we do come to the aid of any of the smaller countries, which i feel is likely in some form, it would probably be under the guise of being good allies, but more about gaining a leg up on china in the global political arena. not that i am complaining about decisions made and actions taken behind the scenes. there’s a reason we get to enjoy our lifestyle and it’s not because our government has complete transparency and honesty in all situations.
5:46 pm on September 18th, 2011 11
Interesting line of thought from Chickenhead. One thing I’d like to add in is Vietnam. The location is strategic, they have oil and a good sized population as well as a proven ability to mobilize and fight with purpose. I’d love to see the US and allies bring VN closer as a major part of the strategic puzzle in SE Asia.
10:50 pm on September 18th, 2011 12
Ahh and people like to wonder why the US has a presence in SE Asia.
Honestly the place to watch is Taiwan, not Vietnam. Talk about people with a bulls-eye painted on their foreheads. A pro-US democratic country literally within spitting distance of China. A country that was started be the remnants of the previous Chinese government, a place the Chinese dearly want to see retaken and dominated, for no other reason then for their own pride. After all how can they even begin to realize their divine destiny to bring *enlightenment* to the rest of the barbaric world with such unfinished business.
That China has threatened all out war should Taiwan ever formally declare it’s independence, or should any other nation formally recognize them as an independent nation. The US is required by law to defend Taiwan from any hostile action from China, this is codified and would require lots of very public work to get undone. Pesky cold-war era treaties and all that.
So, should one day the Taiwan get all nationalistic and do something stupid, like declare themselves a nation and demand China recognize them as such. *poof* WWIII (or WWIV if your CH) starts. The Chinese have to act to keep face, can’t let the other nations see them as militarily weak or reluctant. The US has to act and must defend Taiwan, can’t let the allies see the US as being unwilling to uphold our international commitments. So two nuclear armed nations going toe to toe, not because they want to fight each other but because there is no acceptable alternative.
1:06 am on September 19th, 2011 13
someotherguy 12, why would that be a world war? Which other countries would get involved? On whose side?
1:24 am on September 19th, 2011 14
China US,
China + Allies (Russia, Iran and anyone else they can find) vs US
China + Allies vs US + Allies (NATO, UK, SE Asia)
Everyone vs Everyone
And not to mention, most involved have nukes. Conventional warfare must lead to nuclear warfare as the losing side will always resort to their nuclear arsenal to prevent from losing. The winning side must predict that the losing side will resort to nukes, so must use nukes first in an attempt to prevent the losing side from resorting to nukes. Losing side knows that it’s nukes will be targeted the moment it’s losing, will have to initiate nukes before it starts to lose to prevent them from being removed by the winning side. Winning side knows this and will initiate nukes before it starts to win to get ahead of the losing side before they start to lose.
This thinking leads in circles until ultimately you must initiate nukes at the very onset of the war, if for no other reason then to prevent the other guy from doing the same thing. Its a crazy global game of chicken with lethal and insane consequences. Thus the saying, if one goes they all go.
3:55 am on September 19th, 2011 15
Iran and Russia would fight for China’s claim to Taiwan? I doubt it. Nato would fight for Taiwan’s independence? I doubt that, too. “SE Asia” would fight for either side? Sounds far-retched to me.
5:35 am on September 19th, 2011 16
as i am aware, other than the border between the two koreas, the border between china and russia is among the most tensely guarded in the world. don’t know if it’s true or not but i have heard tale of the russians driving tanks that were on their last leg to the border, park them facing china, then burying it for an instant bunker with a cannon. the bear versus the dragon. i doubt that those two will be teaming up anytime soon. even when they were cooperating in the name of camaraderie, mao and stalin had a healthy distrust for each other, but then again, those two made it to the top by NOT trusting people.
8:12 am on September 19th, 2011 17
They say the funniest jokes speak the most truth.
Let’s try.
Q: What has over a billion people and greedily eyes the vast untapped resources of a weakened northern neighbor?
A: China.
Maybe I told it wrong.
1:38 pm on September 19th, 2011 18
johnny boy 16, you’re right. The one guy Stalin trusted, Hitler, disappointed him.
3:42 pm on September 19th, 2011 19
I really think the bottom line is that we should work to be energy independent. The main way to achieve this goal is my opinion is to have an expedited program on a Manhattan project or Apollo project type effort to develop nuclear fusion as a energy source for electricity generation and to develop algae based biopetroleum for transportation fuels and chemical feedstocks. If they were to pass a bill totally removing taxes on energy companies for 50 years if they were to develop those two means of energy production we would literally be floating on energy & we could tell the countries in the mideast to go foxtrot themselves. If you google general fusion, dense plasma focus fusion, polywell fusion, ITER, National Ignition Facility, etc you well see that fusion is very, very close. The program I described would give it the kick in the piper that it needs. Companies such as Sapphire Energy are working on algae based biopetroleum. Energy production to me is the linchpin for national security, economic security, energy security, & environmental security. Let’s do it!
3:57 pm on September 19th, 2011 20
Tom Langley 19, the Manhattan project wasn’t a tax break for companies that would build a bomb, and the Apollo project wasn’t a tax break for companies that would go to the moon. They were big government sozialist projects. And they both succeeded.
If you have cheap, plentiful energy, you might not even want algae. You could make “organic” compounds directly from water and the carbon dioxide in the air.
5:27 pm on September 19th, 2011 21
Glans #19, You are correct about the Manhattan & Apollo projects. I should have added that I favored private companies developing nuclear fusion & algae based biopetroleum because the companies that I listed were so close to their goals. Building an atomic bomb & a rocket to go to the moon are not profitable projects but hopefully once the fusion & algae biopetroleum projects do go on line that they will be profitable. If you look at the billions that have been poured into the ITER project being built in France by a number of governments vs some of the private company fusion projects that are going along on a shoestring (dense plasma focus, General fusion, polywell fusion, etc) it seems at this point that one or more of the private projects will reach energy breakeven (where the amount of energy output equals the energy input) and later ignition (a sustained operation producing far more energy than the input) before then the private projects at this point seem to be far more economical. No one will actually know until breakeven and later ignition is reached. The algae biopetroleum projects seem to be progressing just fine. I agree with and research is being done on forming hydrocarbons from atmospheric CO2 and H2O.
5:32 pm on September 19th, 2011 22
I forgot to add that the National Ignition Facility which is a laser fusion projects being build in CA by the government is in a separate category since a big portion, actually the main portion of that program to ensure the reliability of our nuclear deterrent.
7:35 pm on September 19th, 2011 23
Tom L.,
I agree.
The American government should go all-in and develop some renewable form(s) of energy while it still has the economic and political clout to do so.
This technology should then be freely available to competing American companies to benefit America and its citizens.
Like the Manhattan and Apollo Projects, this is a case where limited and focused sozialism works to better the nation.
Like the recent Solyndra collapse, too many private alternative energy companies go out of business… either because of the truly vast amounts of money and manpower it takes to complete a project or because of the vast amounts of easy government money involved, it is a scam from the beginning.
On top of that, any company which gets the lock on alternative energy production, such as being the first to develop working cold fusion, will exert an irritating and intrusive social and political power an order of magnitude above any company currently in existence.
For these reasons, and others, the search for a working energy-independent alternative should be a sincere, large-scale, all-in, generational, epic government-pushed campaign…
…much more productive than the War on Drugs or Terrorism or Manufactured Poverty or Whatever Nonproductive Money Pit Hooks Up Political Donors This Year.
9:05 pm on September 19th, 2011 24
Achievable fusion, would change the world period. We’re talking 100:1 or 1000:1 energy cost reductions. So many things that previously were though unachievable / impractical due to lacking sufficient energy source would be realities overnight. Spaceflight becomes easy, interplanetary travel, mass production of nearly any material. Heck hydrogen and cheap fuel-cells become possible if the energy-in portion becomes a no-cost / low-cost item.
If something like DPF / polywell works out with p+B11, then that would be the single greatest step for man kind since the invention of fire. The ability to generate a few million volts at high amperage from a material so plentiful that everyone has plenty of it in their back yards. You also get ridiculously small reactors out of it, less then 1/4th the size of current fission reactors and without the need for the expensive boiler components, just direct conversion of atomic kinetic energy to electrical potential.
And the kicker, polywell is a project of the US Navy not a private research effort. The Navy’s after a small compact fusion reactor to replace all their fission plants in their effort to become an all nuclear navy. The ONR is the only entity that can bypass the NRC bureaucracy on nuclear research / development and production. The ONR is the only once’s who certify reactor design’s for navy vessels and can order them built to standard direct from various manufacturers. All without needing the 5~10yr process to get a license from the NRC. So in a way, the government is already working on it, just in a very quiet way.
Anyhow, onto the whole world war scenario. If there’s anything we’ve learned from the past century is that no war stays contained for long. And any war between two large nuclear capable powers will drag others into it by virtue of all those treaties involved. The Taiwan example,
China declares Taiwan is part of China and orders the Taiwan government to dissolve. Taiwan refused and declares themselves an independent entity and demands China recognize it as such. China then proceeds to try to invade Taiwan force cooperation via military action, Taiwan defends itself with it’s own military. The US immediately defends Taiwan and engaged Chinese naval forces. The Chinese get enraged and demand the US withdraw, the US refuses and China declares war on the USA. The allies of each country will then declare war on the other country, several European countries and Canada are bound by treaty to defend the USA should it get into a big war. Iraq / Afghanistan / Vietnam / Korea were not wars, in the legal sense as there was no declaration of war by congress signed by the PoTUS. A war with China would be a real war with all the legalities that go with it. Russia could go either way, but seeing as they’ve been awfully anti-US these days they would probably go with China, but that’s just a guess.
There is something called a mutual defense treaty, it’s the legal agreement that the US used to become the worlds policeman. It basically states that both sides agree to defend the other should any third party nation declare war on one of the treaty members. With no nation in their right mind wanting to fight the US in an open war, any nation signing such a treaty with the US becomes invulnerable to other nations aggression. With most of the western world being in such an agreement with the USA, they would all be required to come to our aid should China declare war on the USA. They could opt to break the treaty, but then no other nation would trust them again and they’d be fair game as no one would come to their defense.
Thus a relatively small country like Taiwan could easily start WWIII (IV for CH). They don’t because they like their island intact and their economy healthy, as regardless of the ultimate winner of the war, Taiwan would be bombed and heavily damaged in the fight. Thus instead of “embassy’s” they have “Overseas office of the Republic of China” and various other names for buildings with representatives of the Taiwanese government.
12:41 am on October 6th, 2011 25
Nut up and double down behatches! Lol