By Long time journalist Don Kirk who has covered news on the peninsula for decades thinks that it could mean that software guru and motivational speaker Ahn Cheol-soo may be in the driver’s seat to win next year’s presidential election:
The candidate for president next December is going to have to adopt a softer line toward North Korea – and certainly not speak in praise of the US alliance or American bases.
Indeed, the big loser in the election may not have been Na Kyung-won, who will go back to her job as a member of the National Assembly, but Park Keun-hye, the daughter of the long-ruling Park Chung-hee, assassinated in 1979 by his intelligence chief.
She’s been a leading prospect to run as a conservative next year as successor to Lee, who can’t succeed himself under the 1987 “democracy constitution”, but she lost points by speaking out for Na.
As for Park Won-soon, he had the support of Ahn Cheol-soo, an information technology entrepreneur who is also seen as a presidential prospect – and will be playing upon anti-American sentiments along with the need for social and economic reform.
“There are major pent-up pressures that have mad it possible for an independent, technically non-politician to be elected to the second most important position in South Korea,” said Tom Coyner. “The Mad Cow disease demonstrations essentially had nothing to do with public health. Rather, the protests were a way for the disaffected young masses to make repeatedly clear over several weeks to the Korean establishment that they can take over the streets.”
In that spirit, they got their hero elected mayor – and may also win the next presidential election with an agenda that calls for cozying up to North Korea and reducing the American troop presence whatever assurances Panetta gave the Koreans while he was here. [Asia Times]
By the way here is a little background on Seoul’s new mayor:
If the Seoul mayoral election was about the economy, however, leftist demands for “change” always come down to the American relationship. Park, as on-time leader of the gadfly People’s Solidarity for Participatory Democracy, has made a career of playing on such sentiments, upsetting the ruling establishment with diatribes on everything the conservatives hold dear.
He has, for instance, called for repeal of the National Security Law that historically gave authorities carte blanche to go after North Korean saboteurs and spies along with radical malcontents, and did not hesitate to blame the government for having “provoked” North Korea into sinking the navy corvette the Cheonan in March of last year and then shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in the Yellow Sea with a total loss of 50 lives.
Perhaps Park’s gravest offence, however, is that he also helped to organize the massive demonstrations in the summer and early autumn of 2008 against the government’s lifting the ban on American beef for fear of “Mad Cow” disease.
So basically there is an anti-US, North Korea sympathizer who is willing to make excuses for mass murder (Choenan sinking) that is more then happy to lie to score political points (mad cow riots) that is in charge of Seoul now. You can read more about his group People’s Solidarity for Participatory Democracy at this link that has long been a key player in the anti-US movement in South Korea.
Like I said before South Korea seems like it is about to go through its own hope and change phase that could lead to some changes in the US-ROK relationship. The ratification of the US-ROK FTA is in serious trouble if the perception of it with the Korean public becomes one of it benefiting the rich at the expense of Korean jobs. It is safe to say that this is the argument the Korean left will make as the FTA tries to be ratified in the Korean parliament. As far as USFK the Korean left taking over may actually be beneficial in creating momentum to make the Yongsan Garrison move finally happen. As far as North Korea I’m sure the aid and goodies to Kim Jong-il will increase just like it did under Roh Moo-hyun. What I don’t get about the Korean left is that they always complain about human rights and tax payer dollars spent on the rich at the expense of the Korean working man. However, when they in charge they are more then happy to ship billions to Kim Jong-il arguably the greatest human rights violator in the world and subsidize his regime with taxpayer dollars that could go to benefit Korean workers instead.
The election is still a year a way and a lot can change by then, but it will be interesting to see what happens.
She hasn’t seen...
5:33 pm on October 31st, 2011 1
I try not to get worked up over things like this, because well status quo usually wins over everything short of a revolution.
Btw, the US-ROK FTA was the idea of President of Roh, the hero of the left of ROK and this new mayor also.
7:23 pm on October 31st, 2011 2
Like I said in another post earlier – the wingnuts are taking over again. GIs better stay off the subways…
12:38 am on November 1st, 2011 3
Eventually South Korea will “Finlandize” and ask the U.S. to remove our troops (at the behest of Chinese pressure). We will then be left realizing will spent billions of dollars and wasted our soldiers’ time for nothing. This trend has been gathering steam and will accelerate with the leftist politicians that the ROKs will elect next year. Better we just remove our forces now and minimize the losses. We have no strategic interest in the ROK anyways.
6:34 am on November 1st, 2011 4
PBAR, maybe no interests in the ROK but they would be stoopid stoopid McNoopid to leave. Their influence in the Far East would greatly diminish. If there is no Korea, China would own Taiwan and push test Japan every other week.
Why do you think Korea can pretty much triple dog dare you with the antics they pull and we haven’t left yet? Trust me, we will take more of it and we will say thank you.
12:19 pm on November 1st, 2011 5
@4 Who cares if China takes Korea and Taiwan plus harasses Japan? Still not much of a threat to the mainland U.S. They are mostly economic rivals to us and we are pissing away our ability to compete on that level by defending the Koreans, Taiwanese, and Japanese. If we wanted to “contain” China, better to do it from Vietnam, Cambodia, etc. Furthermore, China’s attention will have to turn to India as India’s power rises. That is the much greater rivalry. Also, trends in China aren’t in China’s favor-pollution, bad debt, demographics (!!), etc. China’s time in the no.1 position will be very short once those trends catch up with them. Ar any rate, why waste our money and time defending the ungrateful Koreans? I love Korea and think very highly of the Korean people but as a taxpayer, I want value for my money. They are gonna kick us out eventually anyways once nationalism gets the best of them and the Korean War generation dies off.
1:53 pm on November 1st, 2011 6
PBAR, The way you feel we’re being treated, it’s as if Korea is daring us to leave. Why aren’t we leaving? Heck if I don’t get my way, I’ll take my toys and leave. So why am I still here? They are calling our bluff. We won’t leave and we will take their abuse. At least the girls are pretty.
8:31 pm on November 1st, 2011 7
It seems there are only bunch of ignorant and bored teenagers posting in this blog. Just wanna mention to young people here that it was the U.S who drew Dulles Line and left S.Korea in 1948 or 49 giving signal to North Korea that S. Korea is no longer part of American Asian security umbrella, so naturally N. Korea attacked S.Korea. FYI, S.Korea asked for tanks, fighter planes, and other weapons from the U.S but the Yankees turned Korean request down reasoning that if those weapons were given to Koreans then SKoreans would start a war.
Funny thing was the US seemed like it baited NKorea to attack SK. The US intervened almost immediately upon hearin that North Korans attacked the South. Most Koreans know this so we have serious doubts on American motive of 1948 withdrawl.
Why not leave the SK you ask?
Suppose Americans leave SK, then Chinese influence in Asia increases, Japanese will rearm with nuclear weapon. Americans will be kicked out of Asia and their Naval power no longer is relevant in Asia and Western Pacific Ocean which would fall under or be threatened by Chinese Naval power.
Vital sea lanes in Asia fall under control of Chinese. (North America is far away and that makes American controlled sea lanes all too important)
The trigger for above scenario would be loss of Korean Peninsula by the U.S
If it ever happened then the U.S would no longer be a super power.
Koreans on the other hand may need Chinese in the long run.
So, ya’ll can leave SK. But once you do we will build ICBMs (long range nuclear warhead missiles) and get in the sack with the Chinese.
To tell you kids the truth, most of those Koreans under age 50 want you out.
But we know you won’t because if you do, then it would mean an abdication of crown of Super Power title.
Also, Koreans pay for your stay here and KATUSAs, 100% college educated, elite soldiers provide dirt cheap labor for you at 30 Dollars a month each.
We are building most up to date state of the art Army facility for you in Pyeontaek near Osan Air Base.
You are not paying shit for it.
No… Americans won’t leave on their own….Koreans need to kick’em out.
8:59 pm on November 1st, 2011 8
By the way, South Korea is the third largest arms importer in the world.
Most of the armaments SK imports comes from the U.S
The amount is between 12 to 18 billion per annum.
In 2012, SKorea will decide on the preferred bidder for its USD 8 billion FX project which will upgrade SK Air Force with Stealth Fighter Planes.
Currently, virtually all of the Fighter Planes SKorean have are American made. Not a single one European fighter plane has been purchased by the SK government thus far.
If American influence wanes, then who would profit from the third largest Arms market in the world? It would definitely NOT be the U.S.
Next year, if incumbent Korean government ever decide on an American plane, I’ll personally join the leftist party and make sure the President MB and his party pays in next Presidential election.
9:16 pm on November 1st, 2011 9
Homeboy – Are you saying that Kim Il Sung was Dean Acheson’s bitch?
9:21 pm on November 1st, 2011 10
#8: Lee Taehoon was writing about the same thing in the Korea Times recently. He wrote in English about how great American fighter planes were and then in Korean basically said the Eurofighter could match American planes. He reads this blog too. I think you two would get along.
9:39 pm on November 1st, 2011 11
Homeboy 7, if Korea gets in the sack with China:
1. Why will Korea need ICBMs?
2. What will happen to the northern part of Korea?
10:04 pm on November 1st, 2011 12
#11, South Korean ICBMs would be pointed at Tokyo and Washington DC. South Korea will takeover North Korea with China’s blessing… Now THAT would make Japs shudder wouldn’t it ^^ I really hope for a war against the Japs. But, Americans would get themselves involved because Chinese would back us up
10:08 pm on November 1st, 2011 13
Actually, I thought about it this way.
Korean history is Koreans blaming other countries for causing them to have domestic problems.
Other countries who have a military presence in Korea say they are there because the country they don’t like would cause problems and they are the good guy.
Saying you are the good guy like the Japanese, Russians, Chinese is basically admitting to people like homeboy that you are one of the bad guys. Really all you are doing in his mind is admitting that your country thinks it is the lesser of two evils. So his plan is:
PRC gets out [of the North - they are in Rajin].
US gets out.
Korea goes under PRC sphere of influence with ICBMs as protection against foreign occupation.
It’s a waste of time to try to convince him that the US is the good guy and that China is the bad guy. He is convinced of the narrative that once the foreign countries are out things will be better for Korea.
10:12 pm on November 1st, 2011 14
#9, yes I really do believe Acheson had sex with Kim Il Sung…. #10, you are a wise cracking anus aren’t you? American planes are too expensive. Americans would never transfer technology for Koreans either. Europeans have more liberal policy in that regards. Chinese are building Stealth fighters now. Koreans are way behind because Americans refuse to transfer technology and corrrupt Korean politicians made us non-functional. Next year’s FX project outcome WILL depend upon who transfers technology the most…
10:20 pm on November 1st, 2011 15
#13, hey kid… You’re making me laugh…
Koreans never blamed on anyone… Go read some history book… It’s call geopolitics.. Power balance… That’s why the U.S will want to stay here…. Now you are not decision maker because you don’t know anything… Go hit the books and listen to your teachers….
10:30 pm on November 1st, 2011 16
I’ll refresh everybody’s memory. The Glans Plan for Korea is:
1. PRC stays out.
2. ROK annexes DPRK.
3. USA gets out.
After that, I can’t imagine either Japan or the US attacking Korea. Missiles targeted on Tokyo and Washington would be a waste of money which could be better spent rehabilitating northern Korea.
10:47 pm on November 1st, 2011 17
#15: Didn’t you just blame the US for starting the Korean war by withdrawing from South Korea in 1948 and setting up the Dulles line?
11:04 pm on November 1st, 2011 18
#17, read carefully: I wrote ; it seemed Acheson Line (if I may correct my mistake) almost baited….) But historical fact indicate a series of action taken by the US Government that made NKs to mistakenly start a war… My nagging question is : why did the US get involved if as the Acheson Line indicated that SK was no longer under The US protection. It should have left SK for dead… Why were the US flip flopping? And why didn’t the US give needed heavy weapons for SK Military? US would not have to get involved if SK military was well equipped… Should I just think that Americans were either really stupid or trigger happy?
11:11 pm on November 1st, 2011 19
Bruce Cummings같은 조국에 대한 력사책을 다시 한번 읽을거야 동무. 미국없이 사회주의 완전한 승리로 진하곘고 핵무기로 만드는 평화스러운 락원에서 양놈의 피를 한잔 하자!
11:11 pm on November 1st, 2011 20
#16, You are wrong! With the Japs! They will attack Koreans again… The next war in Noth East Asia would not be an inter Korean War but 2nd Sino-Japanese War with Koreans on Chinese side and Amrricans on the Japanese side. If the US decides to remove itself
from the Korean Peninsula. Only guy like Bush or Rumsfeld would do such a thing…
11:15 pm on November 1st, 2011 21
#19, I’m not a commie… Don’t get me wrong…
11:27 pm on November 1st, 2011 22
Well, traditionalists say it was a mistake but revisionists say that Acheson knew what he was doing.
Given that the Americans put Japanese collaborators in charge of the South, set up a government under Rhee, and then sent Task Force Smith as light infantry to scare off the tanks…
Obviously the US shares blame for the circumstances leading to the Korean war, but it seems like you’re placing all the blame on the US and minimizing North Korea’s culpability.
11:51 pm on November 1st, 2011 23
그래서, 제생각에는 미국정부가 일본제국의 전정부하고 친일파의 말에따라 무식하게 정책을 만들었나봐요. 그리고 이전대통령은 1948년부토 김일승또 전쟁을 시작하려고 했는데 미국정부에 생각에는 이전태동령에게 전차나 피행기를 줬으면 이전대통령은 이 전차로 북한을 먼저 공격할 것같다고 생각했고, 아마 제3세계 전쟁을 시작할 기회가 있을것같아요. 그래서 Acheson전국무장관은 계산 잘 못했다고 생각합니다만 Bruce Cummings교수님같은 Revisitionist역사또 가능성이어도 미국의 한국정책은 진짜 무식한 정책이었어요.
11:54 pm on November 1st, 2011 24
#22, Acheson Line and the U.S withdrawl from South Korean were THE reasons why NK attacked south. Don’t play with words. If the U.S kept Smith Task force sized unit in Korea… Kim Il Sung would never have dared to attack South unless Stalin and Mao wanted it… But Stalin didn’t want were with the US and Mao wasn’t so hot on the idea either… The US said it wanted off of the Asian mainland but backtracked on what it said…
12:04 am on November 2nd, 2011 25
#23, 네… 저는 음모론을 안믿습니다만, 1948년도 미국은 그냥 바보짓 한것 같지요…소련과 제 3차 세계대전을 너무 걱정했고, 북한이 1950년에 전쟁준비를 완료할지 전혀 예측을 안한것 같아요. 많은 사람들이 죽어나갔지요.
12:13 am on November 2nd, 2011 26
Just let South Koreans do following : 1. Develop nuclear tipped ICBM, 2. Purchase non-American arms, 3. Sino-South Korean Security Pact. You can all go home and never come back…
12:24 am on November 2nd, 2011 27
그래서 우리는 음모론을 안믿고 북한은 전쟁을 시작하는 이유도 동의함. 근데, 무기를 주지 않은 이유는 바로 이전대통령은 계속 북한을 침략하려고 했어서 미국은 어찔 수 없었나봐요… but I’m used to reading Korean history in English textbooks.
12:38 am on November 2nd, 2011 28
#27, American textbooks are mostly wrong…on Korean War and Korea.. Very outdated, I know 99% of Americans don’t know where Korean Peninsula is located
at and MASH is only source of any information Americans have over Korea. It is true that the US is run by the 1% because 99% of other people are just so stupid and ignorant…Seungman Rhee the Firs South Korean President never was going ti attack North korea in the late 40′s.
12:41 am on November 2nd, 2011 29
계속해서 한국어 공부 열심히 해보세요.. 잘하십니다만 더 노력을
하셔야 할 것 같습니다. 한반도 평화를 위하여 !
12:58 am on November 2nd, 2011 30
■Young-Wan Goo: “Time-Varying Characteristics of South Korea-United States and Japan-United States Military Alliances under Chinese Threat: A Public Good Approach”
He basically predicted in 2009 that Koreans will eventually go for an alliance with China more and more based on empirical evidence from previous policy decisions. While Japan will strengthen its alliance with the US.
Yeah, my Korean comes out like a butchered text book and a little kid talking.
1:00 am on November 2nd, 2011 31
Young-Wan Goo
Department of Economics
Korea National Defense University
Time-Varying Characteristics of South Korea-United States and
Japan-United States Military Alliances under Chinese Threat:
A Public Good Approach
This paper analyzed the time-varying nature of two military alliances (South Korea–United States and Japan–United States) by estimating a demand system using the iterative SUR method. The findings are as follows: First, in recent years, Japan and the United States have responded more sensitively to the Chinese threat, while South Korea has not. Moreover, Japan appears to be the most sensitive. This result indicates that South Korea, which does not consider China a significant threat, is maintaining its alliance with the United States. The United States could use the defense goods purchased by South Korea, which has purposes other than deterring the Chinese threat, and thus the United States could benefit from the alliance.
Second, defense goods are pure public goods in nature in the context of the South Korea–United States alliance, because an increase in one country’s defense goods substitutes for its ally’s defense goods. The reaction of South Korea on behalf of the United States is increasing, whereas that of the United States on behalf of South Korea has begun to decrease. The alliance between the United States and Japan began to form in the 1990s, however, when Japan started to recognize the Chinese threat, and seems to have become closer in recent periods.
This paper implies that, should China provoke a military confrontation, it might be difficult to deduce a common solution among the three countries because of the different response to military threats from China.
——————————————————————————–
2:25 am on November 2nd, 2011 32
“The alliance between the United States and Japan began to form in the 1990s, …” And I thought it started in 1951.
3:59 am on November 2nd, 2011 33
If kiddy pr0n’s what you want to review,
the wide area network’s for you.
You can satisfy your perversity
at Korea National Defense University
as they already have Young-WAN goo.
6:07 am on November 2nd, 2011 34
제생각에는 — 재 생각에는
1948년부토 — 1948년부터
김일승 — 김일성
미국정부에 생각에는 — 미국정부의 생각에는
이전태동령 — 이전대통령
전차나 피행기를 — 전차나 비행기를
6:27 am on November 2nd, 2011 35
Thanks Guitard.
6:37 am on November 2nd, 2011 36
Glans: He was talking about the alliance being refocused to looking at China as the main threat rather than the Soviet Union in the 1990′s while in Korea the main threat remained North Korea rather than China. Yeah, not the most well written abstract.
6:38 am on November 2nd, 2011 37
제 생각이 맞아요…
6:43 am on November 2nd, 2011 38
어 + 의 become 에.
Still, I really appreciate pointing out the mistakes. My writing is getting pretty sloppy.
7:44 pm on November 2nd, 2011 39
Doh!!
Yes – 제 is correct. I was thinking of the difference between 내 and 네 when I first looked at that.
10:06 pm on November 30th, 2011 40
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