By David Maxwell a former US Special Forces Colonel with plenty of experience on the Korean peninsula has an article published over at Small Wars Journal in response to the recent death of Kim Jong-il. Colonel Maxwell thinks the time is now for USFK to begin preparing for regime collapse:
This should be a wake-up call for the ROK, the US and the international community. For 61 years the international community has been reacting to the Kim Family Regime. While the ROK and US have conducted contingency planning for various scenarios in the north, the question that needs to be asked now is whether the ROK-US Alliance and the international community have sufficiently prepared for such contingencies? Since 1994 when it was assessed that we could accept the political risk of the Agreed Framework because we assumed that the regime would soon collapse, we have written plans but we have not laid the groundwork to actually prepare for collapse. Here are just two small examples of the preparation not conducted. We have not executed an aggressive influence campaign targeting the second tier military leadership and the population to prepare them for collapse. We have not aggressively targeted the external regime mechanisms around the world such as Department 39 – the lifeline of illicit activity that sustained the regime that if cut would cause the regime to strangle on its own incompetence. If collapse occurs plans may be executed without sufficient preparation.
Serious dangers have been laid out above. However, what is the likely outcome following the death of one of the world’s worst human rights violators and dictators? [Small Wars Journal]
You can read the rest at the link.
She hasn’t seen...
10:15 am on December 20th, 2011 1
We don’t have to prepare for anything. China has it all under control, if it comes to that.
Remember the Chosen reservoir?
11:03 am on December 20th, 2011 2
Seems like he calling for instigating the collapse and not preparing for it. Why go poking a wounded animal that’s on its way to dying on its own?
3:53 pm on December 20th, 2011 3
If the NK regime collapses I hope that the US will provide humanitarian relief but NO GROUND TROOPS IN NORTH KOREA!!! The NK populace has been brainwashed that the US is the devil incarnate. If we go north of the DMZ things could get ugly real fast. Let the ROK Army take care of what needs to be done on the ground. They are obviously of the same ethnicity and speak the same language. The exception could be to fly C-5′s and other transports with humanitarian aid as we have more capability in this area than anyone else. As Ole Tanker says there is a large chance that Red China may step in with regime collapse to prevent a free Korea from being on their border. If we send ground troops to NK I really believe that we will be stepping on our own richards.
5:22 pm on December 20th, 2011 4
Well, if you believe documents which were leaked last year, North Korea has already begun collapsing and Kim Jong-il’s death will precipitate the process. China won’t get involved because it’s allegiance lies with the US, South Korea and Japan.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/29/wikileaks-cables-china-reunified-korea
5:23 pm on December 20th, 2011 5
Damned typo. Its, of course.
6:20 pm on December 20th, 2011 6
Watch out for wishful thinking, Teadrinker. Your link has Chun Yung-woo “noting that China’s strategic economic interests now lie with the United States, Japan and South Korea”. It does not say China’s “allegiance lies with the US, South Korea and Japan.” I don’t think I’ll live to see China’s allegiance lie with us — I’d be pleased if China would just accept the Glans Plan.
6:32 pm on December 20th, 2011 7
Teadrinker, the story that you linked to if it is legitimate seems to show that the situation in NK is far worse than any of us here realize. If the Red Chinese authorities believe there is no hope for the Kim regime then they have basically said f it and will make accommodations with the ROK government and hope for the best for their point of view. It could also be however that the Red Chinese are trying to string along the US & the ROK to make us think that both they and we are on the same page so as to prevent the US from getting involved. As I have talked about before a major milestone in NK is the centenary of KIS’s birth in April 2012. I think they will force themselves to hold together until this milestone has passed. After that, who knows? This is obviously a very delicate time & I hope that something diplomatically can be done but I’m afraid that Kim Jong-un is going to do something provocative to establish his bona fides with the NK military. I hope President Obama understands that propitiation IS NOT what is required. The President needs to be firm.
10:04 pm on December 20th, 2011 8
#6,
You’re going to argue semantics?
#7,
Yes, as I was suggesting, it’s probably wise to take it with a grain of salt.
I’m not convinced that the North Koreans will revolt once it’s clear that their government won’t deliver on its promises for 2012, which, I’m guessing, be a couple of weeks after next year’s crops have been harvested. After all, it’s safe to bet that they’ve long been accustomed to disappointment.
1:45 am on December 21st, 2011 9
Raju Gopalakrishnan reports for Reuters in the Chicago Tribune: China wants to avoid ructions.
5:48 am on December 21st, 2011 10
Jon Huntsman discusses opportunity and risk in the North Korean transition. He says:
“At a minimum, we need quality channels of communication with China to avoid misunderstandings and miscalculations. For example, if China were to mobilize forces to close her border with North Korea to prevent a massive influx of refugees, it would be important that no one misread those steps as Chinese preparations for sending forces across the border.” (He doesn’t explain how he knows that China doesn’t intend to send forces across the border.)
He ends his comment with this endorsement of President Obama for re-election:
“Given the magnitude of these events, wise stewardship of our country and military is essential if we are to take advantage of this opportunity to help forge a more stable situation on the Korean Peninsula. The unpredictable events unfolding in North Korea and across the world should serve as a reminder that we need a president with hands-on foreign policy experience.”
Huntsman published his analysis at CNN.
3:15 pm on December 21st, 2011 11
Glad to say that Col (R) Maxwell is my old company commander and a good friend with whom I still stay in touch with! Glad to see him getting some exposure here. I know he has posted here in the past as well.
3:26 pm on December 21st, 2011 12
China has been slowly, yet steadily occupying north Korea for the last few years so I seriously doubt they have “given up” on north Korea. It seems to me that their statements were probably part of a disinformation campaign. The ROK know what China is doing in the north and are very concerned about it.