By Here is a video from STRATFOR that discusses the stability of the Kim Jong-un regime:
What I found surprising was that these analysts were surprised about the current stability of the Kim Jong-un regime. After the death of Kim Jong-un my first posting on the topic I mentioned not to expect much changes from the North Korean government because the regime elite have to much too lose by doing away with the current government. Kim Jong-un does not wield as much power as his dad did, much like Kim Jong-il did not wield as much power as his dad Kim Il-sung did either. So basically the power of one man rule of the Kim family is being slowly drained over time to where I think Kim Jong-un is basically a figurehead propped up by powerful family members and close friends.
4:44 pm on February 29th, 2012 1
At what point is there a movement away from the Kim family dynasty? I can see where China would not have much interest in a total collapse & uprising as the refugee situation on the frontier would be immense and I don’t know that they’re keen on seeing a non-communist entity up against their border. On the flip side, surely the leadership has to see how far behind the curve North Korea really is.
10:51 pm on February 29th, 2012 2
Stratfor is an outstanding organization. The recent WikiLeaks release included many tidbits. Juan Cole links to stories about his top five, without saying how he knows they’re accurate. My personal favorite was this:
“According to the leaked document, Israel gave Russia the ‘data link codes’ for unmanned aerial vehicles that the Jewish state sold to Georgia, and in return, Russia gave Israel the codes for Tor-M1 missile defense systems that Russia sold Iran.”
from Ynet. If it’s true, it confirms my long-held opinion of the leaders of Russia and Israel.
You can read Cole’s other top picks at his Informed Comment blog.
2:17 am on March 1st, 2012 3
Wouldn’t it be a trip if Kim Jong-un were, like his father, a mere figurehead with no more power over North Korea than Queen Elizabeth II has over Britain. I was preparing a post to make the case that KJI himself may in fact be no more than a nominal ruler, but then he died. I’m still putting it together, though.
5:36 am on March 1st, 2012 4
I don’t think Kim Jong-il was one man rule like many people in the media though, but I also don’t think he was a figurehead, I think he was the person that made the ultimate decision on an issue if the people that form the regime’s inner circle could not reach a consensus decision. I can’t imagine that the inner circle would have enough respect for Kim Jong-un to allow him to be a decider on any issue where a consensus has not be reached. That is why many suspect Jang Song-taek is likely filling those shoes today which would effectively make Kim Jong-un a figurehead that keeps the Myth of Kim alive.
1:14 pm on March 1st, 2012 5
GI Korea, I’m not convinced myself, but, as I hope to lay out sometime in the near future, I think the case could be made that Kim Jong-il had about as much power as the Queen, or perhaps about as much as an aged Pope.
3:16 pm on March 1st, 2012 6
Queen Elizabeth II began as a figurehead and remains one. Queen Elizabeth I began as a figurehead but became the boss lady. With Kim Jong Un, we’ll just have to see what happens.
3:19 pm on March 1st, 2012 7
Glans, I think it was clear in comment #3 that I’m referring to the modern namesake, not the Elizabethan era Elizabeth.
3:29 pm on March 1st, 2012 8
kushibo, we’re speaking of the Kim era Kim. Ancient India had three great Guptas. Maybe for Kim Korea, it’s one, two, three strikes and you’re out.