By Just as I expected the recent announcement of a deal between the US and North Korea is nothing more than kabuki theater:
The latest nuclear deal between the United States and North Korea is a good first step to pave the way for resuming long-stalled six-party talks on Pyongyang’s nuclear programs, a senior South Korean official said Thursday.
The U.S. and the North simultaneously announced the deal Wednesday, under which Pyongyang promised to temporarily halt its uranium enrichment program, accept U.N. inspectors and put a moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests in exchange for food aid.
The agreement, reached in last week’s high-level talks between Washington and Pyoungyang, boosted the prospects of restarting the six-party talks that bring together the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the U.S. The negotiations have been stalled since the last round in late 2008. [Yonhap News]
Let me just recycle what I said last week because this is exactly what happened. The North Koreans are never going to abandon their nuclear weapons and the US knows this. However, the US has no better ideas on what to do about North Korea and thus talks become the goal to make it look like progress is being made. In return for behaving and agreeing to talks North Korea gets aid while at the same time covertly continuing to work on their nuclear program. This recent agreement like the one we saw before the death of Kim Jong-il has the North Koreans agreeing to suspend their uranium program that makes it look like the US achieved something even though they achieved little because the North Koreans can continue to work covertly on their plutonium program instead to continue the development of their nuclear weapons program. Plus does anyone expect the North Koreans to allow any vigorous inspections to ensure there is no covert development? It is the same thing for their missile program, the North Koreans agreed to suspend ICBM testing, but this means little because instead of testing an ICBM they can just say they are testing a space launch vehicle to put a satellite into orbit to advance their civilian space program.
Everyone knows this is all smoke and mirrors and kabuki theater, but everyone plays along so the US can pretend progress is being made, especially in an election year and the North Koreans can continue to develop their weapons programs and receive aid at the same time. The South Koreans also play along with all of this because it keeps the peninsula stable which means their economy continues to grow. The Chinese also like to play along because such a deal ensures the stability of the North Korean regime as well as is ultimately less aid they need to pay to keep the regime a float. So bottom line all the relevant players are happy except of course the tens of thousands of people stuck in North Koreans gulags and even more that are malnourished in the country, but who cares about them?
Anyway I still expect some kind of provocation from North Korea in the near term as a domestic propaganda ploy to show Kim Jong-il standing up to the evil Yankee imperialists before reaching some larger deal that will be spun domestically as Kim Jong-un forcing the imperialists to pay tribute to him because of the fear of his mighty military genius. Like I said before this is all kabuki theater, but no one else has any better ideas so everyone just plays along.
By the way someone who has better ideas is One Free Korea and you can read more about what he thinks of this latest deal over at his site.
9:33 am on March 2nd, 2012 1
KABUKI THEATRE indeed, why is it that the US are going round and round in circles, have they no new ideas. surely, the International Community must have some fresh ideas as to what can be done. What about going back to the Tumen River Cooperation or the HELSINKI Accord or even their policy for Emergency Rice Aid, or Peace for Food Aid, and just change some of the policies to mak this work. why don’t they have a discussion with the International Parliamentarian Committee for North Korean Refugees in Seoul, as they seem to wnat to keep Seoul in the loop.
One has to have discussions on other matters do to with the DPRK, that can then lead up to Denuclearisation and the Six Party Talks. How about bringing in the Mongolians and Canadians instead of the US into these discussions.
10:12 am on March 2nd, 2012 2
GI Korean was ahead of the “diplomats” (sic) again! Thanks, man.
You are half a day ahead of the rest of us over here in CONUS. After your reaction was posted STRATFOR had an analysis. It is copyrighted so I will only add, following, my comments to pertinent STRATFOR conclusions.
But, you are right on. As to Comment 1 (Rosa Manson), of course there is a possible solution not yet tried: this is a UN War and a partial UN Ceasefire that USA is stuck with.
Tell the UN to solve their own problems and fight their own wars, give them a ROK-US deadline and then quit the mess.
STRATFOR discussion:
#1
“North Korea and the United States announced Wednesday the outcome of talks between the two countries held in Beijing on Feb. 23-24” [COMMENT: A problem with the matter just highlighted; are we to assume that ROK interests are represented by US in this “bilateral” meeting and agreements?
Hardly! The current administration does not even have the US’s best interests in mind—only the administration’s intentions. This entire process “throws SOUTH KOREA under the bus,” and cripples pro-American potential ROK presidential candidate Qeun-hye Park (election December 2012).
This is unbelievable ignorance in office—as have been most of the Democrat approaches to NORTH KOREA first begun under President Clinton and ineptly pursued by succession of Democrats.
As in all Democrat foreign policy “initiatives”, the end is simply having a process, not on attaining a result favorable to the US and our allies. The “process” enabled NORTH KOREA to reportedly build and stockpile 9 nuclear weapons—just as the “process” is presently enabling IRAN to do.
This US-NORTH KOREA affair continues the thrust of my description “return to Panmunjom” consistently voiced since personally advising US ambassador of such in 2005.
To readers who do not know their history, my reference is to the prolonged communist propaganda show “ceasefire negotiations” at Panmunjom, 1951-53, which resulted in a ceasefire only partially implemented—the Chinese and North Koreans quit following the ceasefire provisions less than 60 days after they were placed in effect.
History records that most of the US casualties in Korea were during the “Panmunjom peace talks.” And of course the loss of life and national resources, and over 60 years of war in Korea have followed.
Talk is always on the side of the enemies of freedom. Just ask Israel about that!!
This latest practically ensures election of a pro-communist ROK government in December 2012. History records that the Democrat party is a master at attaining this result, starting with the loss of China, 1948, an event which precipitated the “Korean War”-a war that has never been ended. Note also that the “bilaterial understanding” does absolutely nothing about the estimated nine nuclear weapons already in the North Korean arsenal.LTD] . . . . .
#2 “The agreement, which was reached just two months after the death of former North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, paves the way for the resumption of the Six Party talks on North Korean denuclearization — stalled since the end of 2007 — and marks the first substantive step in Pyongyang-Washington relations in years “ [COMMENT: At the expense of Washington-Seoul, and perhaps Washington-Seoul-Tokyo relations? LTD].
Thanks for the opportunity to show another side of the 60year+ struggle.
Louis T Dechert
President and Chairman, Combined KOREAN-US Veterans Association, CKVA
Chairman, Louisiana Veterans Coalition, 2011-2012
National President and Chairman of the Board, KWVA/USA, 2004-2008
Founder and Co-Chairman, US Federation of Korea Veterans Organizations, USFKVO
Chairman, US-Korea Allies Council, UKAC, 2005-2011
5:10 pm on March 2nd, 2012 3
Rosa Manson, have you heard about the Glans Plan?
1. The Peoples Republic of China solemnly promises that it will never again send its forces into Korea.
2. The Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea is abolished and its territory is annexed by the Republic of Korea.
3. The United States of America withdraws its forces from Korea and solemnly promises that it will never send them there again.
11:37 pm on March 2nd, 2012 4
I wonder if South koreans know that they are hostages, in a situation that as just as bad as their cousins are held as security for the fullfillment of any condition as if they are north korean. 25 millions hostages
11:13 am on March 3rd, 2012 5
Sad but true, “Roger That.”
There was a saying around Southeast Asia during Vietnam War days: “When the elephants fight the field mice get trampled.”
Bummer!